Btw, anybody know about the Electoral College issue?
Do some states allow their electors to go against the popular vote?
I’m dead serious.
Maybe because I think that the polls will be widely inaccurate this year (new voter registrations, inability to reach cell phone users, etc) or maybe because I honestly believe that we’re generally a decent nation or maybe because I honestly believe that if we all want it bad enough, it’ll happen (see Red Sox).
I did, however, have a nightmare that Bush won by an uncontestable margin last night.
I’m still nauseous.
In Ohio, many polling places are bracing themselves for very slow going. Thousands of poll watchers will be fanning out across the state, ready to challenge anyone who looks funny. Other states are seeing their share of poll watchers as well.
http://www.newsday.com/news/politics/wire/sns-ap-poll-watchers,0,7901580.story?coll=sns-ap-politics-headlines
In Cincinnati, the challengers are being challenged:
http://www.wcpo.com/news/2004/local/10/28/challengers.html
In Akron, a 900+ new-voter challenge has already been thrown out. I don’t know the current status in Atkinson County, GA.
Lawyers are busily prepping on a number of fronts, including butterfly ballots and electronic voting without paper backup.
It is entirely possible that neither candidate will be able to make a concession for some time, simply because of delays at the state level. Then again, maybe not. We’ll see.
I am hopeful that we’ll learn the results by midnight EST on the…by Wednesday morning.
My dad, on the other hand, believes that if Kerry loses by 20% or less, which he will if he loses, he will declare himself the winner of the election (because Gore ultimately lost due to his consession speech) and fly troops of lawyers to all the swing states to begin bullying for recounts. A conservative conspiracy theory for a change… but hey, the sox won the world series so I guess anything’s possible, so I won’t be buying him tinfoil just yet.
No need to fly, brother – they’re there already.
I’m betting the initial winner will appear to be Bush, based on slender margins of victory in battleground states. Close inspection of the electoral process there will reveal widespread fraud by the Republcan Party leadership and a much lesser amount by the Dems, and the election will be thrown into court. The Supremes, hating it every inch of the way but KNOWING they are the stooges of the Republican Party that got them on the bench, will eventually hold another accelerated hearing and give it to Bush on December 7 (a day of infamy, indeed) in the midst of outraged howling by the Dems.
Btw, for purposes of testing Surowiecki’s theories, pool entries will stop 6 a.m. EST, Nov. 2. I’ll tally the results after I get home from helping out at the polls sometime that evening, or… if I’m too tired, b/c I have to be at work in the morning… sometime Wed evening.
November 1st, 2004.
I don’t know how either.
Dawn the next day, 4-6 am.
We’ll know by Tuesday night, Wednesday morning at the latest.
::touchscreens beeping, punchers punching, chads falling, lawyers shuffling::
::watchers watching::
The median (and mode) response is: Today, November 3.
11 of 24 or 25 dopers (depending on whether zut’s response of “at least a month” is counted {as one month}) chose this date. 3 chose November 2, and the rest chose later dates.
The average (arithmetic mean) response is: Monday, November 15.
Without zut’s guess, the date is actually Sunday, November 14, but chances of any decision on a Sunday are low, imo.
Congratulations to:
Early_Out
caphis
Loach
Ravenman
malkavia
Larry Mudd
I Love Me, Vol. 1
Low Key
Cervaise
elfkin477
Mehitabel
I’ll let y’all dispute the closest mark, as I’m not sure when the concession was made (about 11 a.m., I believe?).
Majority rule turned out to be saner than the law of averages this time. Sorry, Mr. Surowiecki.
Thank you all for playing, and I’ll see you again in 2008.