All products are consumed, ultimately. Ventilators don’t last forever. Now, whenever one breaks down do to regular wear and tear, instead of ordering a new one, they’ll just go to the storage room and get another one that’s been there since 2020.
If we build enough ventilators to cope with the current pandemic, and then store them for future use when it’s over, we’d be better prepared for the next one. Let’s just hope next one isn’t any worse than the current one.
No, it’s a silly comparison. These things could be sitting in storage for years. Toilet paper will still wipe your ass after 2 years in a warehouse, a ventilator might not ventilate if you don’t take care of it.
When I said some products are consumed I meant that some products are only used once. If one person uses a sandwich, for example, it’s not going to be available afterwards for another person’s use.
Other products, like ventilators, can be used by multiple people one after another. They do eventually wear out and have to be replaced and it’s true that the amount of use they receive can affect how long they last. But even unused items in storage can wear out (it was discovered that many of the ventilators that were stored by the government for emergencies like this no longer work). So we can assume that there will be some ventilators that are being built that might never get used after this month.
But as I pointed out in my previous post, that doesn’t mean they’re useless or shouldn’t be built. If they only get used once or twice and then get thrown out, they’re still needed this month.
Ventilators produces for this crisis will be in use for a heck if a lot longer than “this month”.
Are they? You don’t feel the need to add details? Which regions do you predict will be short on ventilators?
From what I’m hearing we’ve reached the peak. I feel that the number of people who need ventilators in May will be lower than the number in April. And June will be lower than May.
Of course I could be wrong. I won’t claim to be a pandemic expert.
We have reached a peak, which was heavily dependent upon maintaining isolation and distancing measures. When these are relaxed, or protestors start ignoring them, you can expect to see another peak which may potentially be both much larger and widespread as the virus is not concentrated on a few urban areas but is distributed across rural areas that lack the medical facilities that major cities have.
Stranger
Here is a paper that was based on people maintaining isolation and distancing just relax one time (the Easter/Passover holidays - visiting family and friends), and the effect that would create. It would seem to be much worse if many more people just go back to ‘normal’ lives.
Yeah, its most likely that we’ll get another wave in North America, Europe and Asia. Also, Africa might still have a delayed joining of this wave. Continued up-production of ventilators is not stupid by any means because we may need them soon and we needed to bolster the backup supply anyway.
I suppose it’s all a matter of numbers: how long a ventilator lasts in service, how long it lasts on the shelf, how many are used and how many are made. Either of us could be right.
That said, some margins of error are always good in the medical field. Stockpiling is not a dirty word.
So you may be right that ventilators last as long as toilet paper when stored in a warehouse?
They may last long enough that even if a lot of them are made, all of them will eventually be used over the normal course of operations. I don’t know. If their shelf life is 1 year, I’m probably wrong; if their shelf life is 100 years, I’m probably right. If their shelf life is somewhere between 1 and 100 years, I may be right, I may be wrong.
Say a hospital now has 50 ventilators in storage. Now, say that the hospital usually buys 10 new ventilators per year, and that ventilators have a shelf life of 6 years. Assuming the above, there’s no problem - all of the ventilators will be used, and no new ones need to be bought. Now, if they usually buy only 5 per year, or if they last only 4 years, then the hospital has a problem. It all depends on the numbers.
My point was that they can’t be trusted to a static “shelf life”. You need a maintenance schedule - they must be actively maintained. We can’t dump a bunch of ventilators in the Congo and think “well, eventually they’ll get used”. They might rust to shit before they get used.