-War over in weeks.
-US Military administration oversees the reconstruction and rebuilding of Iraq. Special care is given to make sure backdoor dealings are at a minimum.
-Iraqi poeple eventually vote in their own moderate government.
-Peace and economic prosperity in Iraq as a Western style Democracy is shown to be an effective government.
-Iraq becomes peace broker in Middle East, using significant economic power (for the region) to work towards peace.
on a side note:
Anti American interests don’t care, and continue to hate America based on shallow excuses.
-US Peaceniks deride us gov’t for “Nation Building” when people are “starving at home”… as if that can be fixed.
It won’t be the end of the world. Nor will it solve all of the world’s problems. After it’s over, life will continue pretty much the same for most people.
I think Crusoe summed it up pretty well. Only after the overt war phase comes a long, very long, occupation phase. Melding the rival factions into a government that’s accepted internally or by other Arab states proves impossible. The “New Iraq” becomes a lightning rod for MENA resentment over perceived western/foreign imperialism. Terrorism increases, locally and abroad.
Iraq war over in six weeks. Peaceniks claim war was never necessary, and call for impeachment of Bush.
Saddam killed by his own palace guard. Peaceniks claim cold blooded murder by US troops, and call for impeachment of Bush.
Oil wells set ablaze by retreating Iraqi forces. Peaceniks claim this would never have happened without invasion, and call for impeachment of Bush.
Iraqi civilians overwhelm US aid stations after troops surrender en masse. Peaceniks claim this was deliberately engineered to cause starvation in Iraq, and call for impeachment of Bush.
Evidence of illegal missiles is discovered. Peaceniks claim these are not really weapons of mass destruction, claim war was unnecessary, and call for impeachment of Bush.
Evidence of chemical warfare plants is uncovered. Peaceniks claim these are really innocent fertilizer plants, and call for impeachment of Bush.
Evidence of bio-warfare plants is uncovered. Peaceniks claim these are really medical research plants, and call for impeachment of Bush.
Heavens open up. God Almighty returns to earth, and issues a statement that Saddam was attempting to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and that the war with Iraq was morally necessary, and that He informed Bush so in a vision from heaven. Peaceniks claim that this is a violation of the separation of church and state, and call for the impeachment of Bush.
It would have been nice if we could have avoided mischaracterising the positions of both the anti-war and pro-war (or at least, “no alternative to war”) camps, but apparently that’s not possible.
This war is being fought with videotape as much as by bullets. Many, many units have embedded journalists.
US/Coalition Military will continue the tightening the noose strategy around Baghdad. Out lying Iraqi troops give up in droves, lots of good footage of humane treatment of surrendered forces. Hard line troops put up resistance in Baghdad. Chemical weapons will not be used but chemical artillery shells will be found in abundance by Coalition forces. More footage shown and reshown on CNN.
Once in Baghdad house to house fighting will be necessary in some but not all areas. Hostile forces will mix in with feeling civilians to fire at Coalition forces from the crowds. This in an attempt to get live news footage of Coalition forces firing into crowds of innocents. Some soldiers will fire into crowds. This will result in some innocent Iraqi civilians being shot or shelled. Iraqi forces will also occupy buildings filled with non-combatants in attempt to avoid being bombed or shelled. Coalition forces will be forced to empty these building room by room at a high body count. More news footage will result. Ultimately the invasion will succeed in taking Iraq.
I don’t know if the Invasion will succeed in legitimizing itself. It will totally depend on the conduct of the Coalition forces. If they are professional and if their commanders are willing to sacrifice the safety and lives of Coalition forces for the lives and safety of the Iraqi citizens. Pictures of Coalition servicemen bleeding and dying while sheltering civilians from indiscriminate Iraqi military rounds or shells may well turn the tide of non-Muslim public opinion. I think the most destabilizing time will come some months after the invasion is complete.
The UN will supply humanitarian aid and the US will begin the Rebuilding phase. While it won’t be a blatant take over of all Iraqi oil industry, the US firms will gain a substantial ownership of the soon to be privatized Iraqi National Oil Company. The interim government will start to implement democratic/capitalistic reforms. This government will be weak and lack popular support.
During this initial period, partisan infighting may begin between the two major Muslim groups in south and central Iraq as well as the Kurds in the North. The Kurds will likely demand an independent state. This will alarm Turkey, which may look to occupy Kurdish lands. All the while activist, agents and provocateurs from interested Muslim and Arab groups and countries will seek to create disruptions. In addition there will be an ever-present threat of attacks on “Peace Keepers” by any and all of the above and others we do not yet know of.
Stability in the region will depend on the interim government’s ability to keep Iraqi from breaking apart like the other states cobbled together in the 20th century. To my knowledge none of those states, which were forcibly created, has survived the democratization process.
They already ruined it for me - I was hoping that the first bomb dropped would be one of them big-ass MOAB’s - right on top of Saddam’s house, but noooooooo…all the hype about testing them, then nada…what a letdown.