Wednesday (midnight): explosions bloom all over Baghdad. Airstrikes and cruise missile rain down for 24 hours.
Thursday (midnight): US armored vehicles and mechanized infantry cross the Iraqi border. Average distance to travel to Baghdad – my WAG is 400 miles. Iraqi troops offer no organized resistance.
Monday night: first US troops reach outskirts of Bagdad.
Wednesday night: All major road rail arteries in and around Bagdad under US control.
24 hour pause, during which US leaflets the city, giving directions for safe passage out for civilians and surrendering soldiers.
During this time, Saddam escapes from Baghdad.
Friday morning: US tank unit supported by TV camera crews enter Baghdad, headed toward a Presidential Palace. Re-enactment of the scene of the in Hanoi as tanks smash through the Palace gates, and a soldier races up the stairs to plant an American flag.
President Bush declares war over.
3 months later: headlines note that no major evidence of WMD programs yet found.
6 months later: Saddam located in Iran. US begins preparing for war.
I think your timelines are pretty close to accurate, cept I think the “first” troops will reach the outskirts of Baghdad shortly (as in a few hours or less) after the start.
I think Saddam will be offed by one of his own, and if not, he surely wouldn’t go to Iran. That’s the $64k question, isn’t it? No country would dare give him shelter, lest they be accused of “harboring fugitives”.
If he does manage to escape death at the hand of his own henchmen, I imagine Saddam would like to go out a martyr. I pray he doesn’t take Baghdad with him.
They will find some WMD, even if its just a pair of Saddam’s old army boots. Or someone finds a bottle of bleach and a bottle of ammonia in the same buidling. Proof positive of Saddam’s infamous chlorine gas program.
See, now that could be a good thing. He might wind up in Burma or some other place that could use a serious housecleaning but doesn’t have the other necessary elements to cause anybody to, y’know, do something about it. If he stayed on the run long enough we could wind up with several nasty dictatorships destroyed incidental to the search.
I think the timeline is far too rushed. The air war will continue to bombard Iraqi defenses for a week at least, before commiting to the risky manuever of sending in ground troops. This, of course, would be the optimal time for Saddam to flee, but as others said he’s persona non grata in Iran and Saudi Arabia.
US troops will be surrounding Baghdad in about 2 weeks time after the war starts, I predict. And the bombing won’t start til the weekend, at the earliest.
Sadam waits until the last second, then announces he will accept exile in France if the French guarantee his safety and immunity. France agrees by arguing it will save Iraqi lives and to tweek Bush (and for a few of the billions Sadam has stashed away). He and his sons live to be old men. We clean up his mess - no war needed.
Nah. Saddam used chemical weapons on Iran in the 1980’s. If they catch him there, they’d likely either give him to the US as a gesture of goodwill, or make the remaining hours of his life extremely miserable.
Problem is, who would actually let him stay with their knowledge? He’s secular and most of the middle east is fundementalist. Plus the brownie points a nation would get by throwing him out of a car in front of the US embassy.
US forces cross border effectively unopposed after frontline Iraqi resistances disappears due to a combination of massive air and artillery bombardments and mass surrender. Ground forces take only minor casualties en route to major cities, possibly with friendly fire and aircraft losses to SAMs and AAA the greatest cause of death.
Urban fighting only significant in Baghdad. Casualty rates increase among infantry units as massive firepower multipliers (air, artillery, armour) cannot be used in an urban environment without large numbers of civilian casualties. Public and press reaction initially muted due to apparent imminent end of hostilities.
Inevitable capitulation. Special forces units either capture or kill Hussein towards the end of the war, or he is killed in an airstrike will attempting to escape prior to this point. If he is captured, I am genuinely uncertain as to whether this would be publicised and Hussein subjected to rigourously observed legal proceedings or whether he would be “disappeared”.
During the hostilities no major terrorist attacks occur in the UK or US, but “minor” incidents do occur (e.g. car bombs in cities). Responsibility is assumed by individuals rather than more organised groups. Terrorist attacks do occur with noticeable frequency on Americans and Britons in other Middle Eastern states, and on the perceived assets of the US and UK (embassies, corporate offices, McDonalds and so on).
Eh, no, I believe they fled to Iran and were promptly impounded. I don’t think Iraq ever got any of those planes back, though I’m open to correction on that ( last I remember they were still trying to get some back in the late '90’s and getting a cold shoulder ).
I think Crusoe comes pretty close to my thinking on the likliest scenario, possibly excluding the chemical weapons ( which are going to be effectively useless - what Iraq has been demonstrated to have is not that useful against modern troops ) and the minor terrorism ( may happen, may not ).
