I just went back and googled a bunch of the democratic debates to see what commentators had to say about Kerry. He seems to have acquitted himself well. He didn’t slam-dunk any of them, but he didn’t lose any of them, either. Kerry was also president of the debate club at Yale.
George Bush has never lost a debate. He stomped Ann Richards twice, beat Al Gore at least twice and tied him once.
On pure skills, I’d say it’s a toss-up.
The next question is, who has the best prep team behind him? On this, I’d say it’s Bush, hands-down. So far, the Kerry campaign has seemed to me to be horribly inept. Bush, on the other hand, sits at the head of perhaps the best political machine we’ve ever seen. Advantage: Bush.
The next question is, who has the weaker record, or the most liabilities he’ll have to square away? This one’s a toss-up. Bush is vulnerable on Iraq, Kerry is vulnerable on his record and anti-war activism. It depends on what kinds of questions they are asked. However, Bush is a known, and Kerry is unknown. The voters have largely made up their minds about Bush’s performance on Iraq, his guard history, etc. They still aren’t sure about Kerry. So Kerry’s flank is more vulnerable than Bush’s. Advantage: Bush.
Then there are the moderators of the debates - all of whom will be pro-Kerry. I expect the questions will reflect that. Bush is going to get tougher questions, Kerry more softballs. Advantage: Kerry.
Then there is the expectation game. Bush has always benefitted from low expectations, which has been a major advantage for him. But this time, I’m not sure he has that. In fact, it may be Kerry who gains advantage here - if he debates to a draw, it’ll be seen as a Kerry win. Advantage: Kerry.
Then there’s the media. The mainstream media are begging for a Kerry win, both for partisan reasons and also because it’s more compelling. I expect them to talk up Kerry after the debate no matter what happens. Advantage: Kerry.
So… It’s going to be a good set of debates. Both men have strengths and weaknesses. My money is on Bush, but it’s scared money.
Let’s not forget the Vice Presidential debates, however. Anyone would have to admit that John Edwards is a hell of a speaker. He’s a good trial lawyer, able to convince juries with passion and clarity. I expect him to shine in areas like his summation, opening statement, and other places where he can insert prepared remarks.
Dick Cheney, on the other hand, is a major political heavyweight. He’s a brilliant man, and he knows government and foreign affairs inside and out. He’s got gravitas. So there’s a risk for the Dems that this will be another Dan Quayle moment, with the challenger simply not looking like he could be president. It also remains to be seen how well Edwards can think on his feet when he’s knocked off his script. I expect he’ll be fine, but you never know. Cheney is very, very tough. I honestly think Cheney is going to beat him.
Finally, the last factor is where the race is sitting at that time. The latest TIME poll has Bush taking a double-digit lead over Kerry. If that’s not an outlier, then Kerry is in big trouble already, and he could be WAY down by the time the debates get here. That changes the tone of the debates. Kerry will have to adopt a risky strategy of trying for a race-changing home run. Bush, on the other hand, will be buttoned down and the name of his game will be to simply prevent taking damage. So, we’ll see what happens.
