Why wait for the actual debates? they’re so boring anyway…so let’s have some fun, (but based on a bit of seriousness).
My analysis /prediction is that Kerry will come out ahead, and possibly win the election, due to the debates.
Bush is good with a pre-prepared speech, but speaking off the cuff he sounds as flustered and awkward as a 12 year old kid standing in front of the class for the first time.
Kerry may waffle on the issues, but at least he gets his grammar right.
My guess is that both men will make a couple of gaffs during the debates, and the press will have a good time playing the sound bites over and over again. But Kerry’s mistakes will be , say, based on his confusing a few facts, and will require a minimal knowledge of the issues to understand why he made the mistake. Bush’s gaff will probably be a totally illogical combination of words that will make you laugh out loud.
Result: Kerry will be disected by the suits on the news shows. But Bush will be vivisected by the standup comics.
Kerry may say something like his famous “I voted for the war before I voted against it.” But Bush will make a groaner like his “I’m proud to shake the hand of a man whose hand was amputated by Saddam”
Since half the population learns its politics from Jay Leno, Bush will end up looking like a moron, while Kerry’s mistakes will be ignored by most voters.
It’s dangerous to underestimate (or even to misunderestimate) George W. Bush in a debate.
He benefits from low expectations. If people are expecting him to make a complete fool of himself and he only makes 75% of a fool of himself, he’s won the debate.
He can use his folksy appeal to get away with telling bald-faced lies, like “By far the vast majority of my tax cuts go to those at the bottom end of the spectrum”.
He knows how to use simple, powerful words to good effect, like “freedom” and “terror”. He could stand up there and say “Terror is a threat to our freedom. We must stand against those who hate freedom so we can be free from terror.” Meaningless, but people may eat it up.
This is exactly what will kill JoKer. Bush knows his weakness and will have not only carefully scripted & regurgitated answers, but those answers will be designed to sound presidentially wise and proper while being absolute gibberish. The cerebral JoKer will fall into the trap of listening for comprehension and developing a sane rebuttal–this will be his bane. The result will be that he will appear confused and ignorant.
Also, since the advent of television, the race has almost always gone to the more attractive (or least repulsive in some races) candidate. Bush smiles a lot and has a down to earth demeanor. JoKer has only recently begun his assault on the hearts and minds of the electorate by making late night TV appearances (I loved him on Letterman) but I’m afraid the majority of us will remember the dour & serious liberal democrat going into the debates, and that this image will only be reinforced as he dons the visage he deems appropriate for the decorum of a Presidential Debate. He will appeal less to the viewing audience’s hearts and will lose their confidence. For those listening on radio, he will dominate…should he avoid the doubletalking quagmire laid before him by the incumbent.
I wouldn’t worry about either candidate coming up with anything off the cuff. The debates have turned into a bizarre game of “make the question fit my answers.” If you mention “war” or “terrorism” you will get a brief rambling blob of gibberish, followed by a memorized, scripted answer (“War_Terror_0001.mp3”) that doesn’t really address the point of the question.
Think back to Bush v. Gore in the debates. If you mentioned anything about Social Security, you were certain to get the “LOCK BOX!” speech out of Gore. If you mentioned either political party, you were sure to get “UNITER NOT DIVIDER!” out of Bush. The debates stopped being spontaneous around the same time they became sponsored by the two major parties. The Commission on Presidential Debates has basically ensured that neither candidate will be asked any insightful or probing questions that might catch him flat-footed.
If Bush makes a fool of himself in the debates, he’ll lose. If he can tread water and make Kerry look petty or thought-provoking, he’ll win.
That’s why I started this thread! Since most voters will not watch the actual debates, they will learn about the debate from other, more entertaining, sources,
In other words–the debate isn’t won during the debate --it’s won or lost on the next day’s Letterman and Jay Leno.
Since Bush will provide good fodder for the comedians, he’ll come out the loser. Kerry will suffer a few jokes comparing him to a boring professor who changes the subject too often. But the real laughs will come at Bush’s expense, mocking him for some stupid blunder… And people will be laughing AT him, not with him.
I don’t watch a ton of late-night television, so take this with a grain of salt. The little Leno I have watched lately has had a good dose of Kerry-picking. Don’t get all your entertainment reviews from Rush.
George W. Bush manages to make it through the debates without drooling on himself or soiling his clothes. The media applauds him for “exceeding expectations” and declares him the winner.
Leno’s longstanding rule of political humor is to pick on everyone equally, and avoid partisanship. This annoys conservatives.
I am looking forward to the vice-presidental debate more.
I was very impressed with both Cheney and Lieberman last time, to the point that I could have wished the positions on each ticket could have been reversed, with President Cheney (or President Lieberman), and Vice-presidents Bush or Gore.
Cheney is a sharp guy, and it will be - well, interesting - to see if the trial lawyer Edwards takes the tack they claim to be taking now, and attacking Cheney for what they claim he did for Haliburton. I suspect Mr. Edwards may be in for a sharp surprise if he tries to attack on that basis. Cheney has had several years of practice at handling such assertions, and Edwards is not experienced in the ways of Washington to anything like the degree of the Vice-president.
I don’t think there is much chance of Cheney running for President in 2008, either, and so the whole process is different for him than for Edwards (or Lieberman, or Bush Sr., or Gore).
Kerry blows it when he gets all carried away and tries to revive a Lloyd Bentsen line:
“I served in the Senate under George Bush in the late 80’s…and you, sir, are no George Bush…(squinting to see advisor, off camera) Huh? Who? Wha…? (hangs head in shame)”
[Oct 1] Most major polls declare President George W. Bush to have won last night’s debate after he pulled a handgun and shot Senator John Kerry in the throat during Kerry’s third rebuttal. “His actions remind the American people of his strong and firm stance on national defense,” states one unnamed campaign advisor. “Not to mention the solidarity it shows to the NRA and hunters. And Kerry once again proved himself inarticulate and unable to express a complete thought or position, mostly due to blood loss and the de facto tracheotomy.”
Democrats are trying to downplay the loss. “I still think our candidate made a strong showing and proved his case,” stated a Kerry advisor," and Bush’s actions are still nothing more than an elaborate ploy to get people to think about something other than the economy. It only plays into our hands in proving that Bush jumps into war without thinking about it."
Rumors abound that during the next few weeks, the Bush campaign will flood the markets with descriptions of Kerry as a “bleeding-neck liberal”, and Kerry’s demise is expected to prove problematic in swing states like Ohio.
I may watch the vp debates in the hope that the moderator asks about al queda/Iraq and Cheney loses his cool, bites the mod in the neck, and reveals himself to be the vampire that I always knew he was.
As far as the debates go, I think this elections will be a bit different from last elections, if only because Bush may have to ask questions about his policies. I just hope that Kerry will learn from Gores mistakes and avoids catch phrases and attempting to have a personality (sigh). If he sticks to policy and the issues he should be able to avoid most of the late night flack.
The worst thing for Kerry to do is continue to try to play the anti-bush. It’s a great bit to keep the base voters but does nothing to sway any undecideds.
For my prediction, I say Kerry wins the town hall debate (if Bush goes. Has there been any word on whether or not he will?), Bush wins the next debate and the third ends in pretty much a draw. For the vp debate, Cheneys temper seems to be acting up lately and Edwards can be a glib lil pest. Edwards by a knockout.
The format of the debates has changed somewhat, especially the second, “Town Hall” debate. The Bush campaign threatened to withdraw from the second debate without certain changes. Today’s Howard Kurtz column in the Post quotes the following changes (original report not available):
