Pre-hurricane registration: feasible? How helpful?

This is an idea of mine: that before a hurricane rolls in, states in the affected region set up online websites/phone-based databases where residents fill out a short form indicating their intent to either flee or ride it out, with contact info. The site should be fully accessible to cellphones and even old-fashioned phones (albeit with limited menu-key selections rather than open-entry fields).

A sample ballot of questions might look something like this [with the option of bypassing or skipping some of the fields]:

  1. Name(s) of resident(s)
  2. Address of residence
  3. Type of residence [subchoices for home, apt., and how many stories; what floor, etc.]
  4. Staying or fleeing? [if the latter, in what direction, and for how long? By car, plane, bus, train?]
  5. Contact info fields: namely email addy and/or cell ph. #s; perhaps also where they’ll be staying (if applicable), ph. #s there.
  6. Extenuating health/medical circumstances:
    a) Infirmities and handicaps, including advanced age.
    b) Dependence on any electrical medical equipment or prescription medication requiring refrigeration. [Answers could be a simple keyed yes/no, to protect privacy concerns.]
  7. Pets to be left behind? How many animals? Type? Left indoors or out? Restrained or not? Do you wish your answers to this question to be made available to pet-rescue volunteer groups, along with your personal contact information? (Although there are already some volunteer groups addressing this problem, including this info could help them help more pet owners.)
  8. Evacuation route and travel time info [see below].

Completing a survey would generate a confirmation number/password which could be used in the disaster aftermath to obtain more detailed information, such as access to (otherwise voyeuristic) footage from helicopter reconnaissance flights [see below].

I think this information could come in handy and assist with search-and-rescue (or dead body retrieval) efforts, at least in certain circumstances. Aid workers could better focus their initial efforts on structures where persons had indicated their intent to stay; medical teams could zero in on buildings with the greatest number of the ill/diabetic/elderly/infirm. Viewing the wreakage of what was once a condo or apt. complex, those retrieving bodies would at least have an informed idea how many bodies might be in the area and who they might be…

Such a database could also be used to coordinate the return of residents. Global emails or cell phone text messages could be sent to residents of particular townships/neighborhoods/streets/buildings informing them of preliminary damage estimates (i.e., extent of flooding, whether particular blocks or buildings are largely intact or destroyed, status of water/sewer/gas systems, biohazards, fire hazards, chemical spills, etc.) and if it’s safe to return, or not, or advisable to return, or not, and why – and which roads/bridges are unsafe, impassible, or reserved for emergency workers or other key personnel.

There could even be an option for evacuees to log on in order to provide additional, follow-up information – such as when they evacuated their residence and how long it took them to travel N miles by car on X highway, say. [This is Question 8 on the registration form above.] Future detailed analysis of the data could help government agencies to offer better evacuation advice, which they would make available to the media and even send by global emails and text messages to residents before the next hurricane. (An email/message could direct the resident to a website offering estimates of actual evacuation travel durations, based on data collated from previous evacuations, and couched with legal disclaimers to shield the govt. from liability. Wouldn’t it be helpful to be able to access a website with charts or, more likely, search engines showing that to get from township A to city/state B took previous evacuees X number of hours when they’d taken R route at H hour at I hours before landfall, but Y hours when they’d taken R route (or S route) at H+1 hour?)
Another possibility might be for video footage of extensively detailed helicopter surveys to be catalogued by area and made available for downloading in discrete units, accordingly, by residents who had pre-registered and thus have passwords. (This would protect the dignity of the residents and help prevent voyeurs and news junkies from crashing the site – although security measures stringent enough to block spurious false registrations by voyeurs might prove impracticable or odious.) I’m not talking about the kind of footage characteristic of the quick overflight that network correspondents make of a general area, with scant reference to particular neighborhoods or streets. I’m thinking of detailed, block-by-block coverage, with individual buildings and homes clearly identifiable.

Well, what do you Dopers think? Can the coordination of disaster preparations and responses be revolutionized with information technology in this way, or is the entire enterprise too impractical, legally suspect, or complicated to work at this time? Would such an approach likely fail due to “human,” psychological factors – or would it be worth trying if only a sizable fraction of the general population was willing to participate? How do you think the best registration form should be organized?

The only problem I can see is that the sort of people that are likely to ride out hurricanes are the same people who think that the government will sell this information to the UN or something.

That’s just stupid. The people likely to ride out the hurricanes are those who just don’t take hurricane warnings seriously for whatever reason. I know some people who stayed in Bay St. Louis because they figured they survived Camile so they could survive this one.

Marc

Man, I’m sorry to hear that. I keep hearing that Bay St. Louis is 90-95% destroyed.

Now, that’s a tad harsh, and wrong, besides.

Well, that’s one reason. Here’s another: they’re worried about their property and intend to stick around to discourage looters (perhaps with the assistance of Messrs. Smith & Wesson). And another: that they’re physically, financially, or occupationally unable to get away. But the kind of anti-govt. suspicion and paranoia that even sven cites would also be a huge factor, reflecting the fears and concerns of well-educated people and out-and-out cranks of both the left and right ends of the political spectrum. Any registration scheme would have to find a way to assuage their concerns. Ironclad assurances that no information would be shared with other agencies uninvolved with relief efforts and urban planning, such as the IRS or INS, would be a good start. Making participation in the survey strictly voluntary would be another.

Harsh perhaps but you’ll have to show me where I was wrong. Do you have good evidence to suggest that people who choose to ride out hurricanes are more likely to believe in black helicopters and UN plots to take over the United States? If so, please share.

Those are other reasons I can buy. I seriously doubt that fear of the government is a “huge factor” in people failing to heed warnings during natural disasters.

Marc

I hope they changed their mind and left at the last minute but I’m sure I won’t know for a while. They also had their daughter and her three children with them. My wife’s grandparents lost their homes in Bay St. Louis but they went to Memphis to stay with relatives.

Marc

I had initially interpreted that as an observation that psychological resistance to both evacuating and voluntary registration with the government would often be found in the same persons, but that doesn’t imply a causal relationship between the two. I also interpreted his statement on commenting more on the distrust of the govt. in the context of my registration idea than of not evacuating – although that isn’t necessarily what he was getting at.
Another possible application of the IT approach would be for hotlines to be established for the poor, the blind, the infirm, etc. to call requesting, say, a chartered bus ride out of town, and leaving contact info. The data could help authorities plan sufficient public transportation, targeted to the neighborhood level. Similar feedback mechanisms (emails, text messages, etc.) would help complete the info loop and fill the buses…