I’m really disappointed Klaatu and moonshot925 can’t be bothered to share with us how they think the Electoral College vote will break down by state to reach the ridiculous numbers they both have suggested.
I could really use the laugh.
Exactly! In order to use the economy for their advantage the Republicans need to convince the voting public of the following
- The economy is in bad shape
- This is because of things Obama has done
- They would do better because unlike Obama they would…
The first of these is easy for them to do, and they are working hard on the second, but they haven’t made any serious attempt to address the third.. If the Repbulicans had some new ideas as to how to fix the economy (or heck even some old ideas with a good track record), I might be worried. But austerity, tax cuts for the rich and unspecified deregulation is not a very convincing plan.
All I can say is, come election night, if I hear that Florida has gone for Obama, I can go to bed early, knowing he has won the election. (As a political junkie, I won’t do so, but I could…)
According to every poll I have read, there are only a very few Electoral College ways Romney can win, but many, many ways Obama can remain in office.
moonshot925 said 400 EVs, which can be explained only with magic. Klaatu was said 300 even though he made the Reagan/Carter comparison. I don’t think that’ll happen either but it’s less absurd.
Man I was hoping there was someplace to place bets on this, I have a couple grand I could stand to turn into more for free.
300 is less absurd than 400, but it would still be entertaining and maybe even instructive to see what assumptions Klaatu is making to come up with his number. I would also love to know how he has come to " understand the level of dissatisfaction with Obama’s policies around the country" so much better than the rest of us, given his disdain for polls.
The electoral map at RealClearPolitics would give Romney 301 votes if he won every single tossup state. 400 is impossible even if you add in every leaning Democratic state.
“Everyone i know, every paper i read, every website i frequent and the only news channel that tells it like it is agree with me, Romney can’t lose!”
How is it possible to read this without falling over, rolling on the floor laughing?
I’ll look forward to bumping this post in early November. And laughing more.
That’s your logic?
I think it’s parody, so don’t get too excited.
I’m fairly confident that will happen anyway, without exacting a promise from them.
Poe’s Law in action again? But moonshot at least seems sincere.
That is even more bizarre than the OP, truly, and it’s very hard to wrap one’s mind around the claim that Romney has the kind of inspirational personal appeal that Reagan had, in order to justify such an upset. But that post is in keeping with the partisanship of almost every post he’s ever made on the SDMB since he joined.
If moonshot is faking it … well … there might a useful “t” word which describes such behavior. Or, is he just trying to make conservatives look … uh … somewhat confused about the facts? You know, to make them look bad? Very, very bad.
Yes it would. I also find it laughable all of those states will go to Romney. I know you realize that but I would enjoy hearing Klaatu’s reasoning of how Romney could pull that off.
It’s not laughable, it’s just unlikely. But who knows? Suppose a major scandal erupts nex week and Obama loses five points of support across the board; that would become a very likely electoral map.
400 electoral votes is laughable. What, is California going to flip?
I’ll try: suppress the vote.
That’s actually been discussed within the last day over in this thread. Nate Silver’s best estimates are that even the strictest voter ID laws / voter suppression attempts probably won’t depress turnout by more than around 2 1/2%, which probably won’t yield more than about a 1 percentage point bump for Romney’s share. If the state in question is very close anyway, it might make a difference; otherwise, it’s unlikely to meaningfully affect the results.
As much as I’d like to see you turn out to be right, Klaatu, I don’t see a landslide happening. I think we’ll have a repeat of 2000.
I think Romney has a decent shot, so far, anyway. I hope this country is bright enough to vote out Obama but I’m losing faith that it is.
Yes, RickJay that could happen though it is unlikely. Same with the voter suppression although it appears that may not be as effective as was hoped.
Reading the OP I don’t get the impression either of those are what motivated Klaatu to state how “blindered” anyone is to think Obama will win. The mention of the GOP victories of 2010 and the dismissal of any polls indicate this is an individual who just can’t fathom any result short of Obama being crushed just because he is Obama.
“It will be like Reagan/Carter.” That’s laughable.