el donald seems to cash in on the Bradley effect. In the 1968 race for Mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley was the first black candidate with a chance. He was ahead in the polls by about 5% IIRC. He lost by about 5%. People would not admit their racism to pollsters but when it came time to vote, they were.
I don’t think we’ll have the final supermajority.The watergate midterms were D+17 (290ish house seats) that’s what I’d consider an absolute best case scenario. (We flipped Vermont for the first time in decades.)
That’s not my “prediction” but it’s what I want to happen.
Paxton, Peltola, Brown, Jackson, Turek, and Cooper are all ahead in the polls. Technically the D candidate is ahead in South Carolina right now (out of a measly 3 polls). It’s bad and Republicans are very nervous. And I think it will get worse for them over the next 6 weeks.
I assume you meant Talarico?
You are correct. Although they did not use the word, that is pretty much a wipe out. Still, those posters are in the minority here.
I think Democrats don’t get NH. Republicans keep Maine (Collins) and TX. And Republicans gain MI.
My point is that Iran has wanted revenge against Trump since Soleimani was killed in a drone strike in 2020. Iran has planned assassinations against Trump since then.
I’m wondering if they feel the democrats winning one or both houses of congress means they will not allow funding to continue for the war in Iran. If Iran does something to destroy Trump’s reputation or damage the US economy in october right before the election, it could swing the election away from the GOP who rubber stamp everything Trump does.
Yes, and fast- the “war powers” act will be quickly put into action.
Note that only about 60%- and declining- Republicans support the war.
Only 37% of Americans support the war-
The war- especially the gas prices- is an Albatross around the GOPs neck.
What on earth could possibly “destroy Trump’s reputation” that he hasn’t already done on his own? I mean with enough American voters to render him ineffectual politically. Obviously, his personal reputation around the world is already crap. Actual crap gets more respect. And deserves more. After all, it serves a function.
I’ve asked a variation on the reputation question before, and no one has come up with a credible answer.
Iran has seen the US as the bad guys since their revolution in 1979 if not before. The timeline at this point reminds me of the US and Britain in the war of 1812. It’s been 40 years or so and things are still not really settled.
They will probably play Trump the same way they played Carter.
Being seen as weak and incompetent. His cult followers worship him because they feel he is strong. But if Iran keeps destroying the US military in this war, it becomes hard to ignore how badly Trump fucked this all up.
A huge % of Trumps followers score high on right wing authoritarianism (RWA). People high on RWA want a strong leader who they can submit to and follow because they think that person will keep them safe in a dangerous world. Seeing a third world country with a military budget of $25 billion run circles around the US and its 1 trillion dollar military budget makes Trump look weak.
Does that mean they can submit to Iran?
The people who score high on RWA in Iran are supporters of the iranian government and the IRGC.
Do any of those Americans get any news that tells them the truth? Or do they just get trump-adoration propaganda they’ve been conned into believing is news?
This is an abstraction. What would they have to see being reported on FAUXNews (or elsewhere) for them to believe that this is factual-real-truth if/when it contradicts what trump is telling them, namely, that the USA is on top and everything is great?
Another way of asking this:
You make a good point- maybe release whatever blackmail Russia has on him, according to rumor? 
You don’t need to affect his base with facts. if they see gas prices go up in the weeks before the election some may be demoralized and not vote.
Also its not just the diehard MAGA republicans who are maybe 30-40 million Americans. The other 35-45 million Americans who voted for Trump in 2024 may be affected by watching gas prices go up or watching the US get beaten and outsmarted by Iran, which makes them less likely to vote or less likely to vote republican.
You don’t need to win over his base. If an extra ~5 million republicans who would’ve voted in 2026 decide to stay home due to the US being outsmarted by Iran and gas prices spiking, that changes things from a blue wave to a blue tsunami.
“Release” it where? Where will Donnie’s worshippers 1) see it, and 2) believe it?
All worthy things to hope for.
To be clear FOX does report on Iran. This from their lead on their web site. No link as I don’t need to encourage traffic there, and hidden for space:
Summary
WHAT TO KNOW
- Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue to take more ground in Yemen despite initial gains by Saudi-backed Yemeni forces.
- Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry said Friday that the kingdom’s East-West Pipeline was shut down as a precaution after sustaining multiple attacks.
- The U.S. is maintaining its blockade on Iranian ports and have turned away at least 99 vessels in recent weeks, according to U.S. Central Command.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran would not yield to U.S. pressure, accusing Washington of targeting civilian infrastructure. “If Americans are warriors, let them face our valiant military forces."
- Oman’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that a meeting with Iran and other Gulf nations to discuss the Strait of Hormuz was postponed.
- Israel and Lebanon are to meet in Rome in October to discuss a U.S.-brokered security agreement to reduce hostilities along their border, a State Department official said.
There is a group of MAGA frustrated that Trump has got us into another never ending conflict, and over Epstein, and more. And they hear about it on Fox and in their social media feeds, various podcasters pissed off …
Since I think it does not really exist, how would i know? I mean if it is anything it is money Putin funneled to trump to win the elections, not to mention fake news and propaganda.
I am not sure about “MAGAs” but yeah, a lot of Republicans are pissed about this.
The thing that happened in 2018 or 2020 that I think helped Trump is that the economic optimism was relatively high. Trump got a cushion during the pandemic where all job losses were treated as temporary, and Dems sabotaged themselves by giving a lot of money to the citizenry that Trump took credit for.
Harder to close the argument with the disengaged electorate when their seems to be a near universal (outside of partisan delusion) consensus that everything is worse that it was two years ago.