I usually ignore prediction threads, so why am I starting one this year? Good question. The answer is that I’m getting a strong feeling about this election. And I just have to share that. But don’t let my predictions influence you. Make your own and add them to this thread.
Prediction: blue tsunami, possibly even blue mega-tsunami.
Republican Senate seats flipped: at least 8, possibly up to a dozen.
Republican House seats flipped: at least 30, possibly 40+
In the Senate, I see these seats flipping: NC, ME, OH, TX, AK, NE, IA, KS. In Nebraska, it’ll be an independent who wins, since the Democrat dropped out. Democrats have dropped out of Senate races in two other red states (ID and SD), but I don’t think the independents have much chance in those states. The Democrats wanted their candidate in Montana to do the same, but she was obstinate and refused to do so. Otherwise, I’d have MT on the list above.
I’m also fairly sure there’ll be at least one and perhaps several surprise flips. Look in the South, most likely in FL, SC, MS, LA or AR.
Now there’s one potential fly in the blue tsunami ointment (if you don’t mind me mixing metaphores). The Democrats should hold their current seats (even MI), except possibly NH. A Sununu (R) is running for Senate there and that’s kind of a magical name in that state. Expect a close race there that could go either way.
Yes, even though nobody believes he will be able to fork over the funds, the blame is the deciding factor on whom the populace will put in the various offices up for grabs now. The red tide has already decided it’s those “commies” and “socialists” who will somehow prevent it, so the areas and states where they are in the majority will most definitely vote red.
The general sentiment of the country definitely seems to be going in a certain direction at the moment. But we have to remember that Trump fed the electorate in 2024 a whole slate of lies. Not subtle lies either. Blatant, obvious, transparent lies that were easy to see through. That were of a pattern that had been established by him for decades. (Ending the war in Ukraine on day one, lower grocery prices the first week, mandatory sex change operations in elementary schools, dogs and cats being eaten by immigrants in Ohio, etc…)
Against all rationality it seems like a significant portion of the middle bought those lies hook, line, and sinker. And this latest lie about the $5,000 payments if Republicans retain Congress is another one of those blatant and obvious lies. But it’s going to work with a certain number of people. And it’s aimed at the lowest common denominator. Will it be enough? I don’t know. I can only hope and pray that people are seeing higher gas prices, high inflation in grocery stores, and another pointless war in the Middle East and place the blame where it belongs.
Hey guys, enough with the side discussion. There’s other threads for that. Let’s have some predictions on how how many Senate and House seats will flip.
I do not see it as a side-discussion at all. I am telling you how I feel about predicting the outcome of the upcoming midterms.
But fine…if you want data the prediction market Polymarket (one of the biggest if not the biggest prediction exchange doing this) has the following (as of now…can and will change)
FWIW they seemed to be best at predicting Trump’s last win that no one else thought would happen. Does not mean they will be correct this time though so grain of salt and all that.
I made this thread so that people could make their predictions now and then we’d come back after the election to see who had the best crystal ball. I should have made that clear in the OP, so I’m sorry about that.
If you don’t want to make a prediction, fine, no one’s making you do it. Also, I don’t care what Polymarket or other gambling sites say.
My prediction is the election is a shambles with massive federal, red-state, and especially purple-state interference in voting and vote counting. And, if necessary, interference in the seating of the newly elected congresspeople.
Any talk of conventional results, polling, etc., is totally ignoring reality.
By hook or by crook, there will be a Fascist wave, not a blue one.
The vote counting will take forever. And it will take even longer (weeks? months? years?) for both sides to agree on the totals and the winners. If both sides ever do agree.
Yes, the Dems will take the House, by at least 10 seats. The Senate is a definite maybe, I say 51 Dems votes (counting the indys who sit with the Dems).
I think it’ll be much like the 2018 midterms; Republicans will lose the House but keep the Senate. Although back then they actually gained in the Senate a bit, and I think this time they’ll keep it but the margin will be closer (maybe even 51/49).
If they assumed theh could just override the election, I don’t think they’d be doing a weird midterm desperation telethon. I don’t think they’d be pooring millions upon millions of dollars into elections, and I don’t think they’d be in the state of absolute despair about the midterms.
If there was a magical “end democracy” button Victor Orban and Jair Bolsonaro would still be in office. And both of them have IQs above 70 which isn’t something I can say about the leader of this regime.
Dems flip 36ish house seats (kinda ballparking since I don’t know what the thresholds are per seat), 8 senate seats (NC,OH,ME,AK,TX,IA,KS,NE). Flip Governorships in GA, IA, TX, OH, NV.
I’m not going to make a prediction right now but I have a related prediction to ask for:
Is the overall polling going to be: on average about right (misses mostly in MOE and evenly spread each way, call it within 2 or fewer points overall); lots of individual misses outside MOE but even spread of surprises each way; systemically off by more than 2 points, and then to which side?
Misses mostly in MOE and evenly spread each way, call it within 2 or fewer points overall
Individual misses frequently outside MOE but no systematic bias
Democratic outperformance of polls by 2 or more systemically
Republican outperformance of polls by 2 or more
0voters
I think there is good reason to think that the poll models discount D enthusiasm and the degree of anger at the GOP. But looking at history the errors have been outperformance by the R side more often than the D side. I am scared my “good reasons” are going to get my heart broken …
What he said. Polls are no longer reliable. Trump will probably launch an “October Surprise.” On the other hand, if egomaniac Trump continues to make the midterms a referendum on HIM, there is a possibility of a Blue Tsunami. Republican candidates are distancing themselves from POTUS.
Polls are as reliable as they always have been. They are generally pretty accurate (certainly way more accurate than punditry) but subject to systematic errors and much more accurate in general elections where polling is more robust. The problem with polls is much more people lack of knowledge of how to interpret them then the polls themselves.
Agreed. They are fine measuring instruments that measure to within something like a +/- of 3 points in a linked manner for all results and then a MOE around that. Use a tool with knowledge of its capabilities and it is a fine thing.
Sometimes we expect more from a tool than it is capable of.
The rumor is that Iran and the houthis are going to wait until closer to the election to block both striats on the arabian penninsula, spiking gas prices to punish trump in the election.
Hopefully thats true, but I have no idea.
The issue is you can never underestimate how stupid american voters are. the GOP are going to get 55 million votes. The blue wave will depend on how many people show up for the democrats. If its 60 million it’ll be a blue wave, if its 65-70 million it’ll be a tsunami.
