Exactly, that’s why I wonder not if they are going to do that, because it wouldn’t work with a man who cannot be trusted, but if they are going to escalate things to further sink Republican chances in the midterms or just keeps things as they are.
I don’t understand what Iran would put forth. It’s like expecting Ukraine to make a proposal to Russia that would allow Russia to save face – it makes no sense. Russia can leave Ukraine whenever they want, and the US can cease all hostilities and bring troops home whenever they want. Iran owes the US nothing.
The US can’t unilaterally open the strait. We could unilaterally lift our blockade and just leave Iran with a perpetual one-sided claim on international waters. Obviously this would be a horrible idea and an agreement would be much better. And given that even Trump is not going to do something like that, an agreement would be beneficial to Iran to allow them to rebuild their economy.
The main thing Iran could demand to seal any agreement is immediate unfreezing of assets - that’s something the US couldn’t easily reverse so it would show a real commitment.
The thing required of the US if any agreement is to happen any time soon is to acknowledge that Iran won and they get to dictate things like an immediate unfreezing of assets. Otherwise the ecourse is to massively escalate the conflict or try and wait out the blockade longer than them.
What you’re describing is the US offering a deal, or a payment, really. Iran can just sit there, they have the default position (just like Ukraine).
Yes, the option that Russia has but the US does not in their respective conflicts is to unilaterally withdraw.
In Ukraine, Russia is occupying a bunch of territory. In Iran, neither side is occupying anything and both sides have blockades on international waters.
I dunno, I’m sure I’m an outlier but I think the US does have the option to unilaterally withdraw. Yes, it leaves Iran with control of the strait. Oops.
I’ve gone on record here as saying the correct move for the US after 9/11 was to do nothing. I think that’s much more true in retrospect than it was at the time, but sometimes you lose and you need to cut your losses. Holding out for a deal is chasing a sunk cost.
It wouldn’t work for the same reason that the US doing such things to other countries has never worked. People would just get pissed off as opposed to being in a mood to negotiate.
ETA: Although I do appreciate the irony of the United States now possibly being on the receiving end rather than the giving end of that particular treatment.
In a technical sense, sure. But Trump can’t just quit without looking like a loser. He doesn’t want to be the president who lost the war against Iran.
The US could unilaterally withdraw and then pressure Iran to open the strait through a combination of threats and “reparations” in the form of unfreezing assets. Iran has already offered to reopen the strait if the US withdraws. Withdrawing doesn’t change the status quo much and it’s the only realistic way to get some support from US allies.
An eventual peace deal will include these terms anyway; the question is whether the US can extract any concessions from Iran’s nuclear program.
However the administration won’t take a deal until it suits them. I’m not sure what, if anything, it would take. At this point, the administration doesn’t seem to care what anyone thinks.
The United States has already bombed Iran, and according to a credible source, a very stable genius, their military has been utterly destroyed, rendering them helpless. Short of putting boots on the ground, we’ve got nothing else to threaten them with.
That’s not true. I heard the threat to “annihilate” them on the news this morning, reminding me that nuclear escalation is possible.
Obviously, the actual threat was empty, but we could still make things worse if so inclined.
I predict he’ll wait to lose Republican control of congress in November. Demand the Democratic congress approve and fund further strikes on Iran. Get denied. Accuse Democrats of hating America. Order the military to stand down and return home. Strut around the chessboard claiming to be victor and victim.
Such threats aren’t credible and only make the United States look weaker and more ridiculous.
Yes, that’s why I said “the actual threat was empty” in the very next line. But it’s not completely incredible: no previous administration would consider such an escalation, and no professional military strategist or diplomat would recommend it. But we have who we have, and I don’t trust them to keep that option off the table.
I have to wonder though. Iran obviously anticipated strikes from the US and Israel and prepared for it. So while they are certain to be suffering in some ways, they didn’t utterly collapse as Trump thought they would. The same might go for a nuke. What do you target? Tehran? Is the leadership even there, knowing they might get bombed again? Or are they dispersed in protected locations? It would be just Trump’s luck that he would deploy the ultimate weapon only to have Iranian leadership pop up the next day with a new Lego rap video about how weak and useless that nuke was.
I also heard that Trump, before the UN, claimed that he could choose to annihilate Iran. What I wonder is: What was the reaction among the speech attendees? Did they applaud at all when he showed up? After the speech? Was he met with stony silence? Jeers?
Whatever the sound is of eyeballs rolling… it was that.
All those headphones usually used for translation? All tuned to relaxing whale music.
Just in the past month I’ve seen my first intact Trump “I did that!” stickers on gas pumps and I’ve seen lots of them! In the previous 5 years of Individual 1’s presidency I didn’t see any unless they had been mostly ripped off. Whether my observation is appropriate for a thread for predictions about the Iran War depends on whether this is a country-wide thing and whether it was a small organized group of people or lots of separately-disgruntled people.
Nonetheless, it seems like it could be a useful barometer about how the American public feels about the Iran War in particular.
I was saying the US should withdraw unilaterally, then threaten and bribe Iran to unblockade the strait as well. In this case the threat is for the US to re-engage and re-blockade.
I don’t think there are other realistic options other than unilaterally withdraw or maintain the current stalemate.