Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War

Well, this should be an interesting few days:

Iran Rules Out Talks With Trump, Says Will Wait Until His Term Ends In 2029

https://www.news18.com/world/iran-rules-out-talks-with-trump-says-will-wait-until-his-term-ends-in-2029-10264715.html

Shakeri also outlined what he described as Iran’s approach to dealing with Washington.

“The path to victory is neither fighting nor a deal — it is managing the process of neither war nor peace, up to the point of victory," he posted.

Donald will be incandescently furious.

He will want to nuke Iran for this. They’ve said he’s contemptable and therefore irrelevant. He will find that intolerable.

How did the saying go? know you enemy and know yourself and you’d never lose a battle?
Trump did not know his enemy, thought they’d fold easily.
Trump did not know “himself” overestimating the ammo on hand and is now running out of missiles.
Who could’ve predicted he’d lose?

Wow. The other day Trump mentioned chess, a game of strategy that Trump would be lucky to spell correctly, let alone actually play.
So did Iran just say “Check” or “Checkmate”?

Can Iran endure the blockade of their oil exports to 2029?

That may be the critical point, they seem to think they can.

I am reminded of the saying about how in Europe a hundred miles is a long distance, and in the US a hundred years is a long time. Time is tight here in the US, maybe a few years isn’t so imposing in Iran.

I called it a few hours before!

That’s a shit fucking link that immediately threw 15,000 ads including ones with noise.

Thanks.

Someone should erect giant versions of the Trump “I did that” stickers all along the banks of the strait.

One thing I just thought of now; for years, there’s been a Republican narrative that Iran has some large number of “sleeper cells” in the US, poised and ready to commit acts of terror. This was one of the excuses they used for cancelling the Obama nuclear deal. But this war kind of puts the lie to that.

After 9/11, I expected there to be a wave of such terror attacks around the US, because that’s what I would have done if I were in charge of it all. But when nothing happened, it became clear that the terrorists simply did not have the organizational reach to do that. Now, it seems like Iran is the same way. If they did have terror cells in the US, why hasn’t there been a single real attack? Or even an attempt? If Iran is already being bombed, what’s holding them back?

The fact that the US is still busy shooting itself in the foot, and Iran is winning handily without taking that risk?

Not arguing that there are such cells, but it could be an issue of timing.

There have been some hacking attempts on the Water Supply.

Cyberattacks targeting water systems across the United States have exposed vulnerabilities in the technology controlling critical infrastructure.

While drinking water has remained safe, recent incidents have disrupted operations, caused water pressure losses and forced utility workers to intervene manually, raising questions about what could happen if a future attack goes further.

But you don’t need sleeper cells in the US for that. Hackers can target anything connected to the internet from almost anywhere in the world.

And for the same reason, there’s no reason to assume it’s Iran. We certainly can’t trust any claims by the present American government’s that it is. Could be Russia, could be US dissidents, could be Trump (either for propaganda purposes or pure spite), could be someone else.

There is good reason to suspect-

Investigators are probing to determine whether the activity is the work of Iranian hackers, according to U.S. officials and sources familiar with the incident. Sources cautioned that since they had not definitively attributed the attack, their assessment could change as additional technical evidence is collected. They are also probing whether the actor could have attempted to appear Iran-based as a way of stirring the pot amid the ongoing U.S. conflict with Iran.

and that is not from trump , who claims

Even as the investigation continues, President Trump said he doesn’t think Iran is to blame. Instead, he pointed the finger at Minnesota and its Democratic governor, Tim Walz, who is no stranger to criticism from the president.

“I think that Minnesota is behind it,” Mr. Trump said during a televised Cabinet meeting at Camp David on Friday, July 31. “You know who’s behind it? Minnesota. Because they’re grossly incompetent. I think the governor’s behind it. I don’t think there was an Iranian cyberattack. I think that Minnesota ought to get its act together.”

“They like to say, ‘Oh, it was Iran.’ Iran should be so lucky. Iran’s got bigger problems than worrying about Minnesota,” the president said.

Following Mr. Trump’s accusations, Walz said on social media that the Trump administration “took an axe” to the federal Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and “left the U.S. exposed to cyber attacks.”

That last bit from Walz is true.

Of course it is early in the investigations stage.

Russian hackers helping out Iran is entirely possible.

A couple of terror attacks by Iranian operatives here in the US would firmly put the majority of Americans in favor of massive destruction of Iran. Right now, they know that Trump does not have popular support in his handling of the war, and I’m sure they want to keep it that way.