Predictions for 2008?

[BrainGlutton]

I predict:

1. HRC will win the Dem nomination.

2. Whoever wins it, the Dems will take the WH and increase their share in Congress.

3. W will not attack Iran before his term expires. He’s shot his bolt.

4. Things in Iraq will not get significantly better or worse by January 2009.

5. Neither will things in Afghanistan.

6. There will be civil war, or something pretty near, in Pakistan. No guess as to who will win it.

7. Petroleum prices will continue to creep up with no end in sight.

8. By the end of 2008, the U.S. economy will be in even worse shape than it is now.

9. However, things will be better for Brangelina.

[Paul_in_Qatar]

Good news! The number of illegal Mexican immigrants will go down.
Bad news! Because the housing sector will crash and require fewer workers.

The dollar will be competitive with your higher-priced toilet papers.

[Celyn]

Wars and rumours of wars.

[alphaboi867]

Britney Spears will get pregnant again. She’ll continue to drink and do drugs thoughout her pregnany. When she’s in labor she’ll show up to the ER drunk and/or high. The baby, if even born alive, will be deformed or have brain damage. The father won’t be identified, but dozens of men will claim it as theirs.

[BrainGlutton]

@Paul in Saudi

The dollar will be competitive with your higher-priced toilet papers.

No, it won’t. Too stiff and scratchy.

[BrainGlutton]

From James Howard Kunstler’s weekly “Clusterfuck Nation” column, 12/31/07:

The housing market is in a death spiral. Eventually, the median price of a house will have to fall back to the median income, and it has a very long way to go, perhaps 50 percent. Until that happens, houses will be generally unsellable. At the same time, of course, an anxious finance sector will be offering fewer mortgages and on much more rigorous terms, so there will be far fewer qualified buyers even for distress sales. And the median income itself may soon not be what it has been. The whole equation has changed. As the painful re-pricing process plays out, many owners/sellers will be upside-down and under water in what they owe on the mortgage in relation to the value of the house they occupy. Quite a few may have lost jobs and incomes along the way. Most of these unfortunates would be better off just mailing in the keys and walking away. But in so far as these awful liabilities are peoples’ homes, full of all their stuff and their childrens’ stuff, not to mention being the repository of all their previously-imagined wealth, as well as their hopes and dreams, walking away is psychologically more easily said than done.

<snip>

 One thing the public doesn't get about the housing debacle is that it is not just the low point in a regular cycle -- it is the end of the suburban phase of US history. We won't be building anymore of it, and those employed in its development will have to find something else to do. Now, unfortunately the whole point of the housing bubble was not really to put X-million people in so many vinyl and chipboard boxes, but rather to ramp up a suburban sprawl-building industry as a replacement for America's dwindling manufacturing economy. This stratagem ran into the implacable force of Peak Oil, which not only puts the schnitz on America's whole Happy Motoring / suburban nexus, but implies a pervasive trend for contraction in everything from the daily distances we can travel to the the very core idea of regular economic growth per se -- at least in the way we have understood it through the age of industrial capital. 

<snip>

 What happens out there on the housing market scene will certainly redound in banking and finance and whatever still constitutes the US economy generally. The fears and uncertainties surrounding all credit-backed tradable securities derive first from the millions of troubled home mortgages dangling slowly in the wind. These fears and uncertainties will multiply as defaults commence in commercial real estate, and desperate individuals next enter a wave of credit card default, all of it, too, securitized and sprinkled all over the world. None of this stuff has yet been priced into the public disclosures of the many troubled banks and bank-like companies holding it. Nor does anyone really know how this is affecting the hedge funds, and their staggering leveraged positions in things that are looking more and more like quicksand. I can't imagine that quite a few major banks will not collapse in the first half of 2008. It is hard to escape the conclusion that many hedge funds will also blow up, given the unsoundness of their counter-parties' positions, not to mention the frailty of the bond reinsurers. But the death of more than a few hedge funds could easily unwind the entire global finance system -- meaning a period of destructive chaos followed by a set of severely different institutional arrangements, with untold loss of imagined capital wealth along the way and big changes in everyday life. The world has never really been in a situation like this before and it is impossible to say what it might lead to. But there is no doubt that the American public has enjoyed an artificially high standard of living in relation to the value of what we actually produce -- fried chicken, hair extensions, and the Flaver Flav Show -- so the conclusion is pretty self-evident.

 Others have said (and I concur) that 2008 will be the year that the issue of Peak Oil not only takes stage in the forefront of American politics, but pushes global warming aside as the most immediate threat to the "modern" way-of-life. There is every reason to believe that the world has arrived at its all-time oil production peak -- and some statisticians would even pin-point the exact moment as July 2006. Since then a few new and crucial story-lines have emerged to allow us to understand what is happening out there on the world oil scene.

 One story-line is that only "demand destruction" among the world's poorest nations has kept the oil markets functioning "normally" among the OECD nations and the rising Asian players. Even so, oil priced in US dollars more than doubled in 2007. It remains to be seen whether demand destruction in a wobbling US economy -- with the suburban builders crippled -- will keep oil prices from jumping into the uncharted territory beyond $100-a-barrel. But two other forces are in operation now.

 One is the growing oil export problem, soon to be a crisis. It now appears that exports, in nations with surplus oil to sell, are going down at an even steeper rate than production declines.  Why?  They are using more of their own oil.  The population is growing robustly.  The Saudi Arabians are building the world’s largest aluminum smelter and many chemical factories. This takes a lot of oil. Russia, another big exporter, saw its car sales jump by 50 percent in 2007.  Mexico is depleting so rapidly, and using so much more of its own oil, that it might be out of the export game altogether in three years. That will be bad news for the US, since Mexico is tied with Saudi Arabia as America's number two leading source of oil imports. Remember, the US now imports close to three-quarters of all the oil we use.

  The second new factor on the Peak oil scene is "oil nationalism." It is prompting countries like Norway and Russia to husband more of their own resources as the awareness hits that they are past peak and might want to keep their own motors humming further into the future.  Oil surplus nations are also trending more toward selling their oil on the basis of long-term contracts with favored customers rather than just auctioning the stuff off on the futures market. This makes oil a much more important element in geopolitical power politics. Note that the US may not enjoy "favored customer" standing among many of these nations.

  Matt Simmons, the leading investment banker to the oil industry, predicted at a major conference in October that the US is much closer to encountering a problem with chronic spot shortages of oil (and gasoline, of course) than the public realizes, and Simmons says that this supply problem will be extremely disruptive in every imaginable way -- economically, politically, and socially. Most of the commentators I take seriously see the price of oil oscillating in 2008 between $80 and $160-a-barrel. Simmons says Americans will keep sucking up the price increases, but they will probably freak out over spot shortages.

[Phlosphr]

BHO - will win the Democratic Nomination.
The US will see 4 bucks a gallon for gas.
Pakistan will disintigrate much further than anticipated.
The Green movement will intensify.
I’ll lay plans for the most amazing treehouse in a huge shagbark hickory behind my house.

[chappachula]

The dollar will be competitive with toilet paper.

housing debacle… it is the end of … phase of US history…PEAK OIL, etc, etc

Wow, BrainGlutton–I don’t know which panic attack to have first
—peak oil and the end of US History…or scratchy toilet paper?
How will we survive?
I predict that 2008 will be kinda like 2007.

But maybe I should buy some more Charmin, just in case.

[CairoCarol]

During 2008:

A natural disaster adversely affecting thousands or millions of people – major storm, hurricane, something of that ilk – will occur, with at least some rational members of the scientific community laying the blame on global warming.

An extremely scary-sounding terrorist threat will be thwarted, with great trumpeting by the government that thwarted it.

I will say 17 particularly stupid things on the SDMB, as judged by me (YMMV).

[elfkin477]

• A dozen more recalls from China on the scale of those seen in 2007 during Q1 will be the catalyst for major boycots by Q3; stores like Wal-Mart and Target will make token claims to not import from China (though they still will). Sensing opportunity, either or both candidate will make make trade embargos part of their platform, assuring people that they do it to ensure the safety of the american people and protect our jobs. Which will lead to…

• China’s ecomonomy entering a severe depression, which will be seen as good news by many Americans. Gas prices will stop climbing as China doesn’t buy the gas it can no longer afford. Gas prices will go down some, but consumer goods will go up if people actually buy from other countries. Most people will see it as a victory anyway, despite no real savings.

• The northeast and midwest will continue to see record snow this winter, possibly leading to a crisis on scale with Katrina. Probably inland in Maine or one of those western states that border Canada.

• The November election will be won by a genuine landslide. The losing side will loudly accuse the other of vote tampering. If the dems win, they’ll be acused of: trying to invalidate the votes of servicemen and women, allowing felons to vote, and having a significant number of dead people vote in the election. If the republicans win they’ll be accused of: tampering with voting machines, and voter intimidation/misdirection (like trying to get people to vote on the wrong day). Just like in 2004. And 2000. And…

• A bill to make the election a federal holiday will be proposed, but loudly protested by companies who don’t want to give workers an additional day off every 4 years. The bill will die a premature death.

• If a candidate who is in favor of universial health care is in fact elected, it will come out by December that they really propose to force people to buy heath care, not provide or fund it. Duped voters will moan loudly, and the candidate will enjoy the lowest first quarter approval rating in recorded history.

[Gatopescado]

If 1, not 2.

I will go to Alaska, with or without accompaniment.

I will regret not skiing more than I will.

My wife’s cat will be eaten by a coyote. This is not so much a prediction, more a certainty.

Everything else is wide open, baby!

[ColonelDax]

My stock investment tip for 2008 (and coming years): pawnbrokers. I think the industry will have some great years coming up. In the U.K., that means a choice between Albemarle & Bond and H&T Group, the holding company for Harvey & Thompson. I don’t really follow the U.S. stock market and so don’t know if there are any publicly traded pawnbrokers in the country, but if there are, I’d suggest checking them out as potential investments.

(Anyone who wants to take a pop at me in a separate thread for being willing to profit from the financial distress of others is welcome to do so. As far as I’m concerned, it’s no fault of mine that a bunch of Smiths and Joneses borrowed too much money to spend on crap they didn’t need in the first place.)

[Spoke]

@BrainGlutton

From James Howard Kunstler’s weekly “Clusterfuck Nation” column, 12/31/07:[snip]

That Kunstler is quite a fearmonger. Anybody else get the impression he’s rooting for a depression? :dubious:

[Sam_Stone]

1. Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination. Second most likely winner - John McCain.

2. HRC will win the Democrat nomination. Second most likely winner - Barack Obama.

3. A continuing rise in economic populism/isolationism/protectionism. Both Edwards and Huckabee seen as good VP candidates as a result.

4. Housing market woes continue, causing low growth in 2008 (but no recession).

5. Iraq will continue to improve - and will not be a major issue in the 2008 election.

6. Afghanistan will take over from Iraq as the important war-related news story.

7. Democrats make gains in the next election, but not nearly as much as they think.

8. God knows what will happen in Pakistan.

9. Radical changes coming to mainstream media as they fight the continued erosion of viewership/readership.

10. This may be the year that marks the wholesale flight of music away from major labels and towards web-based independence and self-publishing. Radiohead set the stage this year.

11. Oil prices rise a bit more, but not to crazy heights as suggested by Kunstler. The primary effect of this is to speed market introduction of more fuel efficient vehicles - primarily hybrids and plug-in hybrids, although the latter won’t show up in large numbers in the market for 2-3 more years.

[Napier]

Romney will acquire a reputation for dickeshness and sooner or later do badly in the election because of it. Huckabee will grow more popular until some of his bizarre lapses don’t seem so cute or harmless anymore, and he’ll also do badly, but after Romney.

This one is really going out on a limb, and I can hardly believe I’d even venture it, but - on the basis of appearances today - the Republicans will be their own worst enemy, and the Dems will not be their own worst enemy. No, that can’t be right, can it? Well, nothing ventured, nothing gained, so I’ll put it out there in the spirit of fun.

Oh, yeah, that young singer, Spears - she’ll do something amusingly appalling every few months until people get bored of her. Then she’ll keep doing it, but we won’t know.

[BrainGlutton]

@spoke-

That Kunstler is quite a fearmonger. Anybody else get the impression he’s rooting for a depression? :dubious:

No, not exactly “rooting.” But what he’s expecting makes a depression look like a hiccup.

[Evil_Captor]

There will be an economic recession in the US but this one will be unusual because it will hurt the wealthy much more than it hurts the middle class and the poor, whose incomes have not risen so they have been “adjusting” all along. This time the wealthy will have to adjust. This will have conservatives suddenly screaming in panic about the unbearably horrible economic collapse that is going on. Middle class types may well buy their twaddle, while wondering why things do not seem so awful to them.

[Spoke]

I predict that at the end of 2008, James Howard Kunstler will predict that 2009 will be the year when suburbia finally implodes.

[Icarus]

Beginning as partners in the ‘war-on-terror’ in Iraq, China will invade the middle-east in order to secure oil supplies (they learned it from us). The US will sit back, as China holds all of our debt. Russia will not be happy.

Influenza - 2008.

A prominent mouthpiece of the right-wing will be gunned down. The liberals will be blamed but it will turn out that the killer is an unstable fan. The liberals will continue to be blamed.

The water crisis will grow and begin to get media attention.

[jimmmy]

Hannah Montana will continue her rule of terror

The NBA Celtics man! If they win its a story … if they fall short its a story. Probably this will be true in the post-season in may-June and in October during the pre-season,

Beijing Olympics will make household names in many nations of athletes you have never heard of or (if you are a fan of a participating sport) only vaguely have heard of at this point.

There will be a memorable line ala “You forgot Poland” “Poland doesn’t consider herself under Soviet domination” “You sir are no JFK”“Where’s the beef” … moment from the debates this Fall.

My confidence in these picks passes 90%