While some here believe that Trump will continue to be a political force up to 2024 and beyond, I have always been of the opinion that Trump’s future is incarceration until the end of his days.
Trump’s behavior has been consistent with the idea that he has never met a rule that he thinks applies to him. We have seen all kinds of evidence of this and we have seen that he governs with an attitude of simply not caring if an action is legal or not. He has done a lot of these actions openly as he had political cover in the Senate.
This leads me to believe there is more, much more, that is just under the surface and won’t become apparent until all of Trump’s partisan cronies are removed from office. Investigations will be able to proceed without political interference. Whistleblowers can come forward safely. Records can be accessed and/or recovered. And I have a feeling that once this process begins, a lot of criminal activity that started, ended or passed through 1600 Pennsylvania Ave will be found.
The question is, what will it be?
Tax fraud, campaign finance violations and national security issues are pretty much guaranteed. But Trump’s criminal ambitions are both wide and deep. What else will we find in there?
Illegal spying? He loved accusing Obama of that.
Bribery? We know he tried it with Ukraine but there could be others who took the deal.
Hacking? Trump was openly asking foreign actors to do this before he was President.
What else will we find once we start opening desk drawers in the White House in 2021?
I bet there’s a lot of insider trading, favouritism, bribery, unfair attainment of lucrative contracts and unlicensed sale/transmission of secret information. Not to mention lack of due diligence.
While I would love to see him in jail, I doubt it will happen. He has the lawyers and judges to spin it out nearly indefinitely, especially if he self-pardons any federal issues - which will take years in court to work through with countless appeals. Considering his age, weight, and eating habits, I strongly suspect he’ll die before he sees any jail time.
As for most of what we have already seen, and is being followed by NY especially, well, I doubt he’d end up in jail. His lawyers will continue to obfuscate his business dealings, but most will probably end up just skirting the law with sufficient deniability that he’ll end up with fines, possibly massive fines, but no more. What I think is more likely to cripple him in the long run, is that any legitimate lenders are going to treat him as toxic, and as his loans come due, he’ll be under a microscope about any international bail outs from, say, the Saudis or Russia.
Seeing the Trump brand crumble into another bankruptcy where no one wants to give him the benefit of the doubt after his previous financial sleight-of-hand has been laid out for all to see could be popcorn worthy. He won’t end up poor with the way our system works, but I’d love to see his legacy laid to waste.
Side note - I wouldn’t be suprised though if other members of the Trump family don’t end up in a worse situation, the Jrs. and Jared seem to be the sort to have accepted bribes for influence or business dealings, and while Trump would self-pardon to ‘protect himself from the deep state’ it would not be out of character for him to not bother with anyone else. And while he’s old enough to die before the federal issues grind through the system, his family is not.
First thing: release the full unredacted Mueller report. That should be pretty damning. Then Letitia James is just drooling to get her hands on plain citizen Trump. Even if he doesn’t go to prison, he will spend the rest of his life in legal limbo. He will go personally bankrupt. And no one, not even Deutsche Bank will be willing to lend him or any entity associated with him any money.
I don’t know if there will be evidence that could be exposed by the Biden administration, but I’d bet good money that there’s some blackmail in there, possibly using Russian sources.
People like Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz flopped over to the Hyper-Pro-Trump side way too fast after he became the nominee, and they’re still sticking by him even now that it’s clear he’s lost the election. Neither of these guys is stupid, so why aren’t they cutting their losses now? “Trump has something on them that even now still hangs over their head” is the easiest explanation.
I still think every state that indicts him on anything could reasonably demand and get his immediate jailing on the grounds that he is a flight risk. Let him rot on Riker’s Island the rest of his days. Same goes for all his spawn.
The new administration will be reluctant to bring him up on federal charges for anything but the most blatant and egregious lest they be accused of using DOJ to attack political opponents. They criticized Trump fiercely for doing this and to show such hypocrisy would not play well. I think New York state could go after him, though.
Biden should, for the next four years, defer all questions about the former president to the NY attorney general. I think being ignored by the new administration will be more galling to Trump than any criticism.
It doesn’t matter what crimes he has committed, what evidence might turn up, or who comes out to testify against him. He claimed he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and get away with it and he was right. No matter what comes out his supporters will proclaim it to be fake news and continue wearing the red hat.
That’s true when the charges show up after the election, but these long predated the election. How many indictments is he facing that were postponed because he was a sitting president?
I’d argue that not going after him - with federal prosecutors leading the way, not the DoJ - would send a signal that sitting presidents are above the law. Not a signal we want to send.
The rot in in administration is deep. Obviously, the close circle of family. Bill Barr needs to be help accountable. All the “temporary appointees” to avoid being confirmed by congress. Post Master general for trying to throw the election. What about the billion dollars the RNC blew like a crack whore at a convention? Enolment’s clause. All the EPA and other rollbacks. There is someone in the trump admin at the trough for every line item.
In the context of things Trump absolutely will not get away with, I keep thinking of Jonathan Pollard. Pollard, for those who are unfamiliar, was an intelligence analyst who worked with the US Navy and who was given a life sentence for spying on Israel’s behalf. I found a couple of enlightening things at the Wiki article.
First and foremost, he is still considered a danger to national security. He did his spying in 1984 to 1985. Trump obviously has much greater access to secrets than Pollard could have ever dreamed of. As such, Trump is an eternal threat to national security, to a far greater degree than Pollard ever could be.
Second, Obama was reportedly thinking about pardoning Pollard and got a hard no from none other than Joe Biden, who didn’t say “over my dead body” but expressed a similar enough sentiment. I interpret this as a good indicator as to the direction Biden will go in when it comes to the Ford pardoning Nixon question.
I agree that we can’t appeal to them. The best we can hope for is that they stay home. I’m also not saying Trump shouldn’t be investigated. What I am saying is that any outcome of those investigations will have to be through the legal system. Hoping that public opinion on Trump will be swayed, even now that he has the stink of being a loser, is a fool’s errand.