naw, it is just angular momentum
Wondering if the current international crises help or hurt Biden. On one hand, it shows a contrast between him and Trump in a positive way and demonstrates his experience in politics and international relations. On the other hand, Israel especially is one of those issues where you’re wrong no matter what your point of view is (e.g. here on the very leftist side; caution warned before reading comments or reblogs).
Polls show Biden gaining.
On the question which matters most, I do not see any movement beyond noise:
General Election: Biden vs. Trump
I personally hope Israel defeats Hamas, and that this is followed by the opening of the Gaza port and airport to relieve the long-standing Egyptian and Israeli blockade of Gaza. Biden would then deserve to gain in the polls. Maybe he will.
In terms of what the American people give a flip about, if Biden can get some hostages released, that’s the deal.
Those who pay attention already know where they fall as Biden vs Trump is concerned.
Which seems to be about 12.6% of voters.
Dean Phillips, who has already said that Biden should be challenged, is doing just that by announcing his White House bid. Knucklehead. He’s a Problem Solver, but this doesn’t really solve any problems. And I doubt it will get him any favorable attention from the Party.
He could be like DeSantis, wanting to position himself early in the event of the frontrunner’s incapacitation.
But no one knows who he is, so it won’t work.
I thought he was the villain from Animal House, then I reminded myself that was Dean Wormer.
Yeah, but in Animal House, “Wormer” was not so much a name as it was a title.
That’s a shame, because Phillips’ dumb stunt can only hurt Biden. He has no chance of winning. I don’t expect it will have any significant impact at all, but the only impact it could have would be to help Trump by weakening the eventual nominee.
If he’s worried about Trump, he should be doing everything he can to help Biden win.
I think this might have more validity as a criticism of Cenk Uygur. Phillips seems to be so careful not to harshly tear down Biden. And when Phillips drops out of the race in March, he will be somewhat more prominent, so his endorsement of Biden will mean more than it would today.
I’m also thinking about your invocation of Nate Silver in the other the other thread. He’s written that a “serious” primary challenge would harm Biden with “medium confidence”. But what about a non-serious primary challenge? I think Phillips is non-serious compared to Williamson.
I’ll also reply here to your invocation of Silver, in the Uygur thread, as denying the import of year-before polls. Silver would likely object to how sure Carville is that Biden is in trouble. Nate likes the phrase “low confidence.” But it doesn’t take much reading into what he says to conclude that, with low confidence, he thinks Biden is behind:
The paragraph immediately above is subject to multiple interpretations. My interpretation is that when you are behind, as is Biden, shaking up the race is good.
Hmm. Could be. Still very early, and a lot of moving parts.
An interesting note that Steve Schmidt, the fellow who suggested John McCain choose a lady named Sarah Palin from Alaska as his running mate, is advising Phillips.
Is anyone concerned that Biden will lose a good amount of votes over his stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict? A lot of the far left is really pissed off about not endorsing a ceasefire. I understand that there’s a lot of pressure on both sides, and he has to walk a tight line… I tried learning more about the situation the best I could (and will continue to do so) but I’m fuzzy about all the facts. it seems every argument I hear, each side has a rebuttal until I just lose my mind and can’t pay attention anymore. It would seem to me, that both of these governments are crazy, and civilians have to suffer. It’s quite the history the two have. I don’t know where I stand, but I think it’s BS when you can’t criticize a government without being called a bigot.
Is there a reason that I’m not seeing why Biden isn’t calling for a ceasefire? Do you think this will effect his chances of reelection? This whole things a mess.
Biden isn’t calling for a ceasefire because it will look like he’s siding with Hamas against Israel, or at least will be portrayed as such.
Trying to support Israel as an ally and as the victim of a horrific terrorist attack while trying to keep Israel from committing horrific acts against the civilian population in Gaza is a very tight line to walk indeed, and Biden’s probably doing about as well as anyone in his position could, particularly as (as you rightly point out) both of these governments are crazy.
This is a wretched situation with no easy answers. President Biden does indeed have to tread very carefully. The only thing I’m completely sure of is that he will receive a good deal of criticism no matter what he does.
Personally, I am allowing that he may get some of this wrong. He is human and he is going to make mistakes. I just hope that he gets the important parts right and makes course corrections if and when it is clear that he needs to. I believe he is a good man and that’s what matters most to me.
This makes little sense to me. Are left wing anti-Israel voters going to write in Ilhan Omar and increase the chances of a Republican president in a tight election? It’s the swing voters that matter, and many of them might prefer a tougher stance against terrorism.
Considering the mess that the Middle East has been our entire lives, you don’t even have to make a “mistake” to get everything wrong. No matter what you do, it ends up being a disaster, because the people who could actually make changes for the better just don’t want to do that.