If Kennedy gets few votes, they will come from low info voters who associate the Kennedy name with liberalism. Hurts Biden.
But if Kennedy gets more exposure, he will be recognized for his myth making, then peeling off Trump voters who want someone even more conspiracy minded.
Kennedy was consistently averaging ten percent in the polls, and the Commission on Presidential Debates requires a consistent 15 percent for participation. The only sensible reason I can see for Biden going outside the Commission was to get Kennedy into the debates. This morning’s horse race news makes no sense to me. Biden is appealing to campaign contributors rather than uncertain voters.
Anectodal info incoming, but every person I’ve come into contact with via social media or IRL that has said they like Kennedy and are considering voting for him have been typical Trump voters. I have yet to hear from a liberal acquaintance in any venue stating any interest in Kennedy, or even mentioning him at all. Every anti-vax person I’ve ever known who is also political is a right wing Trumper. This is the reason Trump is freaking out about him and has been panic posting to tell his base not to vote for Jr.
Sorta-counter-anecdote: An older couple in my neighborhood who seem quite progressive had RFK signs in their yard for a while. But the fact that they no longer display them may mean they wised up.
I don’t think this matter much any more. When was the last presidential election in which the number and timings of the debates wasn’t controversial? Where the debate commission said, “X, y and z”, and both campaigns just agreed?
Trump argues about every debate, so that’s become the norm. Everyone who pays any attention at all expects a lot of pre-debate debate about when and where to debate, and how the debate should be run. That’s just going to happen, because Trump sees no value in just agreeing with anything.
Unbelievable NY Times headline. I looked for a pit thread to post this in, but couldn’t find one. Should we start one? “Idiot left-leaning voters?”
“Low-information” doesn’t get at the depth of ignorance here. How about “it’s a miracle these morons remember to breathe in and out through the day”?
“Trump supporters and voters with less education were most likely to attribute responsibility for abortion bans to Mr. Biden, but the misperception existed across demographic groups. Twelve percent of Democrats hold Mr. Biden responsible, according to New York Times/Siena College polls in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin and a Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll in Pennsylvania.
“I think the buck stops with him, so he had the ability to fight that, and that’s not what I’m hearing that he did,” said Terri Yonemura, 62, an abortion rights supporter in Las Vegas who said she would not vote for Mr. Trump, but is unsure about Mr. Biden, so may not vote at all.”
True, but this is too important. We are counting on anger about the end of Roe to mobilize just enough voters to put Biden over the top in Michigan and a few other states. No room for error like this.
Some of these people might be those who thought that Biden and the Democrats should have packed the Supreme Court or passed legislation guaranteeing abortion access at the national level. While I don’t think that either of those would worked, and refusing to vote for Biden on account of that is foolish. Claiming he didn’t do enough its not entirely non-sensical (just mostly).
The GOP wants a nationwide ban (yes, after saying it was a state issue). Plus, the states are criminalizing travel to get legal abortion in other states, and the feds could stop that. And should.
Moreover, the anger about abortion will help Biden whether he can do anything about it or not. People don’t think these things through completely, and they know generally democrats favor abortion rights and republicans don’t.
Of course, one thing* a Democratic president can do is nominate a pro-choice-leaning Supreme Court justice. Obviously the timing on this is unpredictable – but if you’re a serious pro-choice voter, you should just keep voting for Democratic presidential candidates every four years (and senators, too), until the court’s makeup is more in line with the electorate’s.
(*A couple posts up, Procrustus mentioned a couple other potential federal-level actions, e.g. vetoing any nationwide ban that passes Congress.)
That, or complain that Biden failed to shoot Clarence Thomas in the face with a shotgun.
We had posters making that same argument here- that the Dems had chances to turn Roe into law. When pressed, however- the Dems really didnt, There is propaganda out there pushing this idea.
Donald Trump showed weakness in the suburbs in Tuesday’s primaries, while Joe Biden’s problem with the protest vote appeared to fade.
David Trone collapsed in Maryland’s Senate race, despite his heavy spending. Meanwhile, incumbents there and in Nebraska and West Virginia all prevailed.
Some commentators are looking over the horizon a bit without invoking candidate poll numbers at all, spelling out other indicators to how the general election may go down. The Status Kuo (Jay Kuo) and The Big Picture Substacks collaborated on the article linked below. I’ll list the section heads (despite ten sections, it’s a quick read) to serve as a summary:
1. Biden has an easier job ahead than Trump 2. Biden needs to re-win just 3 of 5 battleground states 3. The GOP is wedged on major issues 4. MAGA has gotten more, not less, extreme since it lost in 2022 5. Biden is presiding over a strong economy, not a recession (and people are demonstrably starting to realize it -b) 6. The GOP is disorganized and near bankrupt in key states 7. The Biden war chest is large and its ground game is impressive 8. Trump is hurting for money and lacks a serious ground game 9. Trump faces an uncertain legal status as a criminal defendant 10. Voters have not focused on Trump yet
