President Joe Biden and the runup to the 2024 election

Frankly, there’s never been a single election where there wasn’t someone better.

Problem is, that someone chose not to seek the nomination.

The great Democratic panic is annoying but entirely predictable. The same thing happened after the first debate in '12. Obama sucked and it really had no impact at all on the race. Biden may have sucked here (at least at first - he definitely got stronger as the night went on) but we have no idea if this will impact the race at all.

Yeah, but Obama wasn’t fighting against the idea that he was a weak old man. Biden was, and he just lost that fight.

I’m terrified that we saw American democracy die last night.

Maybe. Or maybe lots of stuff will happen in the next few months and the second debate will go better and no one will care about this one. Panicking does no good for anyone.

Panicking is good if it drives people to the polls.

Then you have my permission to panic. I see this as the same old same old; but it’s easy to find reasons (each and every time) to insist “this time it’s different”. Let’s see what happens in the next few months.

Note that I said “if”.

For all those saying, “This is just Democrats panicking!” all I can say is, “Yes. Good.”

There’s been a fair amount of whistling past the graveyard by some Biden supporters (including some on this board). Trump is displaying obvious cognitive decline! He’s going to self-immolate in the debate! Polling showing him up in nearly every swing state is flawed!

I’m not saying to dump Biden, but Democrats need to face the reality that he’s in a hole. His average approval rating for this point in his Presidency is the lowest of all time. He needs to shake up this race, and you need a little panic to shake a politician out of doing things the way he or she is comfortable with.

I think a wake-up call is fine – polls indicate this is a close race and Biden could definitely lose. I’m just pointing out that panic after the first debate is very common, and it’s also very common that the first debate ends up meaning nothing.

I fear it may do just the opposite. People who think both candidates suck* will not have had their minds changed by last night, and a lot of them may decide it’s not worth voting.

Which not only hurts Biden but plenty of down-ticket Dems as well.

(*An exact quote from someone I spoke to yesterday, pre-debate.)

I think the Dems have to switch to very strong messaging of what the Biden admin has accomplished, the competent people who surround him, and the manner in which that reflects democratic principles. While contrasting that to Trump’s proven dishonesty, history of surrounding himself with incompetents and worse, and clear intention to move the US towards an autocracy.

Basically de-emphasize Biden as an individual.

They need to see that Biden looked the best last night when he just flat-out said, “Everything he just said was a lie!” You can’t get into the details of each lie, because there’s just too many of them, and even trying puts you in second place almost automatically.

He did this a few times, but they need to start doing it every time.

Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign strategist Stuart Stevens could be whistling past the graveyard, sure. But his takes are still a useful reframing of recent events.

"Don’t day trade politics. It’s a sucker’s game. A guy from Queens out on bail bragged about overturning Roe v. Wade, said in public he didn’t have sex with a porn star, defended tax cuts for billionaires, defended Jan. 6th. and called America the worst country in the world.

That guy isn’t going to win this race."

… and this old saw:

The real issue here is, were people listening to what was said, or how it was said?

In terms of content, Biden was clearly far out in front. He had actual answers to many of the questions he was asked, while Trump just ignored the questions almost entirely, and trotted out all his usual lies and bluster. But at the same time, Biden stumbled on many of those good answers, making him look bad in comparison to Trump.

What this means for the election still to be determined, but that’s the point of contention.

Endless talk about replacing Biden on social media and message boards I follow. Most people think “the Democrats” is some powerful group of leaders. My response there: Only…it will be the delegates representing Biden at the convention. So they are already leaning towards something. They will not pick AOC for example. She will be just 35 by November.

He’s not dropping out. Period.

He was fighting even worse prejudice. And no Biden did not- if you saw his State of the Union address you would know otherwise.

Yep, and those speeches were well done. He had a cold. Likely he should have delayed the debate.

Jeez Louise, where was that Biden last night at the debate?

Sure, but Obama’s opponent wasn’t making his whole campaign about how Obama, as a Black man, was unfit for the job. Trump (and the rest of the GOP) have been calling Biden too old all along, and he just made their case for them.

I did, but that was months ago, and Trump wasn’t standing 8 feet away. This was the first time in four years the public could see them side by side, and Biden came off very badly.

I’m just hoping people have a short memory.

Yeah, they were. And trump is just as old and acts older.