Exactly – which is why I’m worried.
I’d like to see this writer revisit the topic today, to examine whether or not Biden is pulling all the levers he possibly can.
Minnesota Democratic Rep Dean Phillips thinks that Biden needs a “well-positioned primary challenger.” If it was an ordinary election against an “ordinary” GOP challenger he might be right, but now he’s quite wrong IMHO.
Harkening back to Harris … this is my major beef with Biden: I disliked her as a candidate but feel she would be a fine president; Biden however has failed to give her the opportunity to demonstrate such. This will hurt his re-election.
He should be placing her at least as prominently as Obama did him, and possibly more as functionally near co-president, focused on issues as far away from culture wars as possible.
Voters need to feel that she could be more than able to step in and deal with a collapsing Russia, an aggressive China, and an economy that does not feel fully re- emerged stronger than ever.
This might make you feel better. (Gift link)
I’m not sure why the link won’t preview properly. They always have before. In any case, the gist is that Harris is expanding her profile on the national stage.
It’s a 403 error code. The NYT web site is denying Discourse’s request for the preview. That is pretty weird.
Let’s hope it’s a temporary glitch.
Actually it does not. I don’t think her on the campaign trail is what the voting public needs. They needed having her involved in governing.
Early days yet, but still… ugh.
That’s the poll CNN just released that polled almost 60% Republicans?
Really, CNN, you should be ashamed of yourselves…
OK, thanks. I feel better now! 
I think “job approval” polls are useless in that they don’t distinguish the reasons why someone disapproves. It could very well be that some of the people who “disapprove” do so because of the things Biden hasn’t been able to accomplish due to Republican opposition. They might have no intention of doing anything other than voting Biden in '24, but still express disapproval when asked about whether or not they think Biden is doing a good job.
“he’s too old to run again”–> let me vote for job disapproval so he won’t run.
That sort of thinking.
Same with the who would you vote for polls. It’s Ok to have disapproval for the president, but don’t punish him in the the polls if you will in fact vote for him anyway.
I can’t see the image on my computer-can you describe?
It’s the text of the CNN press release, with the following sentence highlighted:
Thank you!
Oversampling to the right may not be entirely inappropriate, for two reasons. In an iffy election, where the nation is all grumbly, there seems to be a tendency for the out-party voters to show up more, goddammit. And by making Joe the President’s situation look unfavorable, it can help to boot his supporters (or the opposiion-haters) out of their “this is fine” coffee cup complacency.
I hope you don’t think they have some political bias.
This is from the respected non-partisan Pew polling organization:
Do all good polls weight by the known percent of registered Republicans, Democrats, and independents? No, some only weight by demographic characteristics. But either way is legitimate if the organization is transparent, as explained in my link. Weighting isn’t the same as obtaining a larger sample from a subgroup, but both have advantages.
The thing to do is to average many public polls, while ignoring those that are candidate-sponsored,
Public political polls, taken collectively, are the closest thing we have to umpires telling us how a race is progressing. They are imperfect but much better than wishful thinking or catastrophizing.
FWIW the finer print in the actual cross tabs:
Page 23 Apologies for the way words copied weird.
This seems to cover most of American history. We are a Grumbly Nation.
In 1984 we re-elected a [expletives deleted] because the economic indicators looked good and the people felt optimistic. Somehow, since then, the Rs have successfully conned a large fraction of the country that they are more savvy on economic issues. If the people feel pessimistic about the economy, there will be a guard-changing. And all indicators seem to point to some serious suckiness in '24.