My Election Eve prediction!
I spent the past several hours poring over, and factoring in, state-by-state information on states’ median ages, percentage of voters who are whites with a college degree, percentage of voters who are Hispanic, and who won the primary (disregarding caucuses). I then gave Hillary a couple points extra in every competitive state for her superior GOTV operation. These are the numbers I came up with. Every number is in terms of Hillary’s margin (positive numbers mean how much ahead of Trump she will be, negative numbers how much behind him she will be). I included some states that aren’t normally thought of as “battleground” but which I think will surprise people by being closer than expected.
I’m giving Utah to Trump, but I really am not feeling like there is good enough data, or precedent for this kind of situation, to make a good prediction. So I’m not going to give a margin and I really don’t offer any warranty on that particular prediction. Any of the three could win it and it wouldn’t surprise me.
I also gave Hillary eastern Nebraska and Trump rural Maine, but no vote margins for those.
It works out to a 334-204 win in the Electoral College; I’m not going to predict the national popular vote (sorry!), except to say that I think Hillary will do noticeably better than the final RCP average.
CO +11.1
MN +9.0
VA +7.6
WI +6.4
PA +5.5
MI +4.1
NV +4.0
NC +2.6
NH +2.5
AZ +2.4
FL +1.6
GA -1.2
IA -2.0
OH -2.8
TX -4.0
AK -5.0