what is the probability of a person living in two mobile homes that catch on fire in the same room. This person lived in both trailers back to back.

Huh? How do you suppose ANYONE can calculate a probability for THAT?

there must be a statistic somewhere of the probability of a person’s house catching on fire, how many fires happen in a day, etc.

I don’t have a statistic, but I can tell you how to find one. You could find (insurance companies keep records) the number of mobile homes that have reported fires in the last X years, compared to the number of mobile homes (or, at least, to the number of mobile homes that have insurance during the same time frame.) That would give a rough measure of the likelihood of a mobile home having a fire.

The statistic will be reasonably accurate, but not precise, since there are obvious flaws in the data – such as, fires that weren’t big enough to report to the insurance company, or uninsured mobile homes.

However, my guess is that the probability of fire in a mobile home – however rough – is fairly small.

If the same individual has had two fires two different mobile homes, one has to wonder whether there is some other factor that is distorting the probabilities… For instance, did the person do something causal, like overload plugs or fall asleep smoking a cigarette? Were these the same model of mobile homes, and is there some flaw in the wiring? etc.

The probability is 100% if it happened, and pretty darn high that it will happen again if the person living in the trailers does again what they have already done twice.

Exactly the conclusion I made. Arseny is suspected in this case, but I didn’t want to lead the readers to this conclusion. It is even more suspicious when the person was fixing to get their electricity cut off for nonpayment, had not paid their rent in two months, and had their phone disconnected. The panelling was removed so not all the evidence remains. Should criminal charges be filed?? Good chance of a conviction if evidence was tampered with???

Arseny? Is that a cross between arson and larceny? (Steal something and set it on fire.)