That is the point I am trying to make. the odds of roulette hitting black 20x in a row are astronomically against it. But the gamblers fallacy (thanks @Chronos) leads some people to believe red must be the next spin, based on the previous 19 spins. The odds of the 20th spin are 50/50 (ignoring 0 00 green). The odds of the 20th spin aren’t 5 billion to one.
The displays they have at the roulette table, listing all the previous winning numbers, prey upon this fallacy.
Likewise for throwing three sixes in a row. I understand the mathematical explanation of probability, and the above posters are mathematically correct.
I think one of the things that confuses people is that the chance of throwing a particular number on a die is the same, regardless fo the number and the sequence, but the chance of throwing a particular total varies tremendously.
In craps, for instance the chance of snake eyes is 1 in 36, since there is only one combination out of the 36 possible throws that adds up to 1. Same odds for box cars. But the chance of throwing 7 is 1 in 6, because there are six ways to throw a 7.
The individual chance for each die throw is the same, but the chance for the total varies.
I was once in Las Vegas for a convention, and after hours went down to the floor to play a little craps. The dice passed to me after a bit, so I laid out a few bets, and set a point. After that roll, with a pair of chips in my hand, called out to the dealer, “Two-way yo!”
I hit an eleven to everyone’s amazement. Dealers were happy, I was happy, so on a whim, I threw out another two-way yo.
I hit it again.
Got paid, threw out another two-way yo. . . lather rinse repeat two more times after that.
I hit eleven four times in a row, and then crapped out.
Bottom line, and even the dealer was amazed, that I rolled an eleven four times in a row, which I admit is a wildly impossible statistic anomaly–but it happened.
[/True story]
Tripler
T’was my best (and only time) downtown in Vegas.
Nope. . . I cannot say that I’ve been to “Vegas*” with the exceptions of overnight outlying hotel stays waiting for flights the next day. I have played two-way yo bets since then, but they always lose.
“Vegas*” meaning ‘The Strip’.
Tripler
There’s lots of other nuclear nonsense to do in Nevada.
If I understand craps play, your odds of this chain are 1/18^4, or 1/104,976. Pretty crazy rare. But how many sets of four rolls in a row happen in Las Vegas craps games every night? If it’s at least 10,000, you’d expect this sequence to show up a few times a month.
I would expect a 2d6 roll of 6, 7, or 8 to come up often, maybe four times in a row. But of the 36 possible combinations with a 2d6, a roll of 11 is only possible twice (2/18, or 5.56% chance). Four times in a row (5.56%^4)? That’s a ((2/18)^4 or 1/6561) 0.000952% chance of that happening on any given sequence of four rolls in a row.
Hell, it made me and the dealers an extra $300 each that night, IIRC.
Not true. I’m pretty sure I’ve set you up a few times. Thought maybe that was @kaylasdad99. You kay posters used to all look alike to me—until we got avatars.
This is not a question about statistics; it is a question about probability a very different discipline. I never had a course in stats and actually know essentially 0 about it, but I do understand probability pretty well.
Probability was taught as part of Statistics in our college classes. We needed to clear 4 modules, of which at least 1 had to be Statistics and 1 mechanics. For the record I took two Pure Maths courses and the basic modules for stats and mechanics (known to us as Stats1 and Mech1), and the modules together were known as “Mathematics”.
I am sure they are different but this was how the course was named and taught.
I wasn’t very good at it, though amazingly I actually got very good marks in all. Go figure.
(Replying to @Hari_Seldon ).
Well this is embarrassing. Looked up my college course list and the full name of the Statistic 1 module (S1) is errrr “Probability and Statistics”),
The question paper.
It’s all good! A “two way” bet (a bet for me ‘one way’, and a mirrored bet for the dealers ‘the other way’), in craps, is a way of tipping the dealer with a wager. So if a number comes up to pay out the wager, I win my bet, and so does the other bet, which I immediately surrender as my tip to the dealers.
In my case, I had $10 left over in my hand, so I played my ‘two-way yo" bet: $5 on my behalf, and $5 on the dealers’ behalf that an 11 would come up on the next roll. When that 11 came up, the payout was $75 to me, and $75 to the dealers. Lather, rinse, repeat four times.
Tripler
I find it’s a good way of rounding out my chips-in-hand for a few rolls.
