Probability Question- Craps

[ccwaterback]

*Originally posted by CurtC *
**So if a shooter makes a point, then on the next roll (when he hopes to establish a new point), rolls a 1-1, 1-3, or 6-6, is his turn over? I know he (and everyone else) loses that pass line bet, but does he get to shoot again or do the dice pass to the next shooter? **

If the shooter “comes out” with a 1-1 or 1-2 or 6-6, the shooter “craps” (loses) but keeps the dice.

[Cliffy]

*Originally posted by aahala *
**I am going to assume once you establish a number and then roll it before a 7, the number is ignored for this special contest.

So each of those six numbers, in some order, must be established and then rolled before a 7.

Given the number of ways a number and 7 can be rolled, I think the chance is as follows:

.333 x .455 x .455 x .4 x .4 x .333=.003673

If my assumption you don’t have to ‘make’ a number more than once is incorrect, the chances of completing all six numbers by in one turn are much less. **

But, in this context (which I’ll call the superbet), a 7 is only a loser some of the time. If you come out on 7, then it has no relevance to the superbet. Only if you come out on 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10, thereby setting a point, does a 7 hurt you on the superbet, as it means you pass the dice and therefore lose your chance at the superbet. (Of course, that same 7 also costs you your ante on the Pass Line bet.)

–Cliffy

[mrbuddylee]

Here’s the answer for you:
The odds of you getting all the points:

.156% which I think is roughly:

156/100000
78/50000
39/25000
(let’s round up to 40 for the heck of it)
40/25000
4/2500
1/625

So, strictly speaking on the odds, roughly 1 out of 625 shooters will get all the points and win the $4,000.

I can post the code to my app if you really want to see it, but I’m pretty confident that’s the answer you’re looking for.

[notfrommensa]

Thanks mrbuddylee…that answers goes in line with your earlier post that it happens a couple times a week.

My crude calculations were saying about 5 times in a million rolls. but my experience was saying that it would happen more frequently than that.

[bughunter]

Well, if I was the shooter the probability would be exactly zero.

I always seven-out before making the point. If I could play don’t pass as a shooter, I would.

I’m not kidding, I can’t remember a time I didn’t seven-out within two rolls of establishing a point. And I play frequently, and seldom pass the dice.

And no, dice players aren’t superstitious. We just don’t believe statistics completely describe the game.

[picunurse]

**He would only lose the roll if he then made his point or rolled a 7.

**
Are you sure the shooter loses the roll if he makes his point? I only play occasionally, and I try to avoid being the shooter [sup]shy[/sup] My husband plays a lot more than I do.

**If I could play don’t pass as a shooter, I would.

**
You don’t have to play the pass line. Just play 6 or 8 until you set the point. (NOT big six)
We had a long conversation with a 30 year pit boss from the Belliago. He gave us some hints that made us better winners. One thing, the closer the bet is to you, physically, the better the odds for the house He also said that once you break even, put that away, and take the mindset that its not your money. Keep pushing your bets. I won $700 in 20 minutes, just pushing 6 and 8.

[aahala]

*Originally posted by Cliffy *
**But, in this context (which I’ll call the superbet), a 7 is only a loser some of the time. If you come out on 7, then it has no relevance to the superbet. Only if you come out on 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10, thereby setting a point, does a 7 hurt you on the superbet, as it means you pass the dice and therefore lose your chance at the superbet. (Of course, that same 7 also costs you your ante on the Pass Line bet.)

–Cliffy **

It was my understanding also, that rolling 7 before establishing a number was ignored. My numbers were only concerned with losing the roll – I frankly didn’t try to understand the winning or losing money betted.

From subsequent posts, I take it my assumption you don’t have to “remake” the same number over and over again was incorrect.

[Scuba_Ben]

*Originally posted by bughunter *
I always seven-out before making the point. If I could play don’t pass as a shooter, I would.

AFAIK, you can play the don’t pass and still be the shooter. It takes a lot of chutzpah to bet against your own roll.

[mrbuddylee]

I always bet any craps on the come out roll, and I think people at the table hate me because when I’m the shooter, about 1 out of 5 times I’ll roll a 2,3, or 12. I don’t know why, and the odds are against me, but I do. This makes people mad because they lose their pass line bets, (and so do I), but the any craps pays 7 to 1, so by betting $5, if I roll a 2,3, or 12, I win $35, but lose my $5 on the pass line. It’s kinda a way to cover your butt. Even just putting $1 on the any craps will still get you $7, and you’d lose your $5, but still make $2. If you do get a 7 or 11, you lose your $1, but make $5. The ways you can bet in craps is just weird sometimes.

I also just added in my little program that if you just bet $5 on the pass line every start of the roll (in the 5,000,000 roll sample), you would have lost about $120,000 dollars.