I agree with a lot of your reasoning about how things stand, but I disagree with your conclusion that the ACA was a good idea, even as a fall back position.
It might be an odd simile, but the mess of the current medical system in the United States, reminds me of the antics of Microsoft, back in the late 1990’s. They had already set up the primary operating system for PC’s, as DOS. When they went to “fix” how much of a pain in the you know what DOS was to use, they came up with a layer to put over the top of it, called Windows 3.1. When that proved to be only slightly better, and more was desired, they came up with a replacement veneer, called Windows 95, and later, Windows 98 (actually advertised as a for-full-cost correction of the mistakes they made while rushing 95 to market). When even that was found to be annoying, they tried adding ANOTHER layer to that.
Ultimately, the problem was that the starting point for everything, DOS, was still what was ACTUALLY running the computers. The various Windows layers were just adding an extra bunch of software on top of that.
In the same way, the problem with the American medical system, is that the biggest problems are all caused at the FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL, and have been made worse by decades of “band-aid” fixes. Insurance itself, is one of those “band-aids.” The Insurance"band-aid," did start out helping patients, by paying part of the costs.
But the overall system is inter-reactive, as capitalism always is. Having insurance to pay things, meant among other things, that the natural capitalist pressure on caregivers to reduce costs, was nearly eliminated.
Then things got worse.
Insurance business profits , are all based on the company being able to as accurately as possible, predict how much they will have to likely pay out to customers, so as to set premium prices up that will pay all that, plus cost of doing business, plus profit margin. That meant that the insurance companies needed a MEDICAL expert, who could set standards of how doctors treat patients, in order to make costs predictable. They chose the American Medical Association to do that. The AMA established care guidelines, which were augmented any time a patient sued for malpractice. This is why when you see a doctor, there are always a specific series of tests that you will have to have done, whether the doctor thinks he knows the outcomes already or not.
The AMA also declared how much each procedure should COST TO PERFORM. That caused another “band-aid” to be added on to the multiple layers already in place. This again, was at the behest of the insurance companies, who needed to be able to predict final cost of care for each ailment. The problem was, that the AMA set costs at a fairly minimum level, and so most providers couldn’t charge what they wanted or needed to charge, in order to make a profit themselves; hence they had to increase the price of everything ELSE they provided. Hence high room charges, hence hundreds of dollars for aspirin, and so on.
Thus, the effect of the insurance companies efforts to lower THEIR costs, and raise THEIR profits, directly caused the overall cost of medical care to the PATIENTS to skyrocket.
It seems obvious to me, that continuing to insist on using an INSURANCE MODEL to base care around, will continue rather than defeat this spiral. Especially since the ACA forced insurance companies to offer MORE coverage than they wanted to, and therefore guaranteed that the insurance companies would have to raise rates, rather than lower them. Which they all did. And the idea of competition between insurance companies was further eroded, since they all knew that ALL of them had to offer the same coverage.
The ACA tried to put a band-aid on THAT, by offering Federal money to pay the bulk of the higher premiums, through Medicaid expansion. But the Republicans saw their chance and took it, to sabotage that overall plan, because Medicaid is administered by the States, and the Republican Party controlled many of the state legislatures and governorships. So they acted to prevent the expansion of Medicaid, thus making lots of people hate the ACA, because they suddenly had either huge tax increases (penalties) or even larger medical insurance costs.
What I would like to see, is an idea that rips all the various band-aid levels off, takes apart the defective structure, and replaces it with one designed from the bottom up, to deliver premium health care to everyone, at realistic costs. But the care has to be primary, not the cost levels.