I think we overestimate the numbers of actual Obama-Trump voters when we look at districts. There are many of those voters, they are basically the “I’m getting screwed, let’s vote for the guy who seems most likely to change things” crowd. But there are also a lot of voters for Obama that were replaced by new Trump voters. Obama motivated more people than Hillary, let’s face it. And Trump motivated new people too.
Obama got 65.9 million votes in 2012. How many votes did Hillary get in 2016?
65.9 million.
The difference is those voters were motivated by Trump.
I think it’s simple: The O/T voters don’t like the way things are going. Give them wishy washy “hope and change”, “drain the swamp” platitudes and watch the magic do its work. These people have no specific policy goals (at least not as a group, they all want something different), they just recognize that things suck and want someone to tell them they’ll make it better. They want someone who is angry. Either a righteous, “they screwed it all up, let’s fix it” anger like Obama had, or a “fuck those assholes” nihilistic anger like Trump.
Personally, I think these voters are going to have a hard time voting for a lifelong political insider like Biden. They want someone who will agree with them that we should just blow up Washington and start from scratch, metaphorically or otherwise. That’s going to be hard for someone who has been working there for fifty years and is best buds with every current politician.
Oh I know! Three million more than Trump, but it doesn’t count because the didn’t live in the right places!