The talk here in the Great White North is that one of our provinces (Quebec) is planning a referendum to find out if it should leave Canada or not. Will this impact the United States or Mexico in anyway?
There are only two things that are infinite…the Universe and Man’s stupidity…I’m not sure about the Universe though.
What’s Canada?
OK, OK, I was kidding. Quebec just had a referendum a couple of years ago in which they defeated the separatists. So I don’t think it’s going to happen anytime soon.
Livin’ on Tums, Vitamin E and Rogaine
Not in any meaningful way. The US would have to appoint a new ambassador, and there may be some renegotiation of treaties, but I doubt Quebec would make any meaningful changes to them.
“East is east and west is west and if you take cranberries and stew them like applesauce they taste much more like prunes than rhubarb does.” – Marx
Read “Sundials” in the new issue of Aboriginal Science Fiction. www.sff.net/people/rothman
Manhattan:
The definition of Canadian is an American smart enough to have figured out how to legally avoid paying taxes to Washington.
Didn’t the referendum fail by about one percent? It seems likely to me that it could pass next time around. Is that likely to happen, and when would that be? Hey, Canadians?
~Kyla
“You couldn’t fool your mother on the foolingest day of your life if you had an electrified fooling machine.”
The Referendum was defeated by a narrow margin about 1%. If Quebec leaves the implications would be huge…I was wondering about the North American Free Trade Agreement would be bother to write them in or could Canada (as a nation) decide to exclude them? Also if you look at a map of Quebec they would essentially control access to the Great lakes from the Atlantic via the St.Lawrence Sea-way…I wonder if they would have the “kahones” to try to mess around with that trade route…
Well, considering NY state and the US government are on the other side of at least part of the Seaway I don’t think Quebec is going to try to block it from anyone.
I take it that Canada does not have the “issues” about a province seceding that the United States has and has had about a state seceding?
-Melin
Issues include:
-How much of the National Debt would an independent Quebec be responsible for;
-Would the First Nations people (Indians to you) and their land remain part of Canada, part of an independent Quebec, or become independent themselves (so far the FNs are strongly in favour of remaining part of Canada)? If Canada is divisible, then why not Quebec?;
-Would the rights of English-speakers (or anyone not speaking French for that matter) be protected? The current Quebec provincial government has a poor record as far as this goes;
-What about the many Quebecois who are federal employees, including members of the armed forces?
-Exactly what would the borders be? Those of Nouvelle France? Much of the territory now nominally part of Quebec post-dates Nouvelle Quebec (including the giant Hydro project at James Bay);
-The majority of people in the big cities in Quebec (Montreal, and Quebec City) are the ones who voted against separation, mainly because these areas contain high numbers of non-francophones (English Canadians, immigrants from Italy, the West Indies, etc.) These are the people that a drunken Jacques Parizeau railed against after losing the last referendum; he claimed that they lost due to "money and the allophones" (that is, those who don't speak French as their first language).
This just scratches the surface. If Quebec were to actually go, Anglophones, Allophones, and many businesses and corporations would flee the province.
I think a great deal of the kerfuffle is political posturing: both by the separatistes (Bouchard would dearly love to be the first President of Quebec); and by the federalists, who love to be seen as the heroes who saved a united Canada. A pox on them all.
Launcher may train without warning.
Rodd notes some very interesting points that a lot of people (Mr. Bouchard, perhaps) have not considered…
First of all, however, there is not a referendum in the works. Our Prime Minister, in all his wisdom, stated at a press conference a while back that he felt that 50% + 1 was not a good guideline for separation… Thus stirring the separatist pot once again
Secondly, I think that a lot of Quebecois (though I may be wrong) didn’t think the referendum would be so close and voted oui to separating to make a statement more than to actually separate. I would be interested to see if the vote would be as close a second time… Living in British Columbia, I often contemplate separating from the Provincial Government, but that is another discussion thread
Anyways, there is enough of an english and/or federalist presence in Quebec (Montreal, specifically) to ensure that future referendums will be just as nail-bitingly close as the last.
My Canada includes Quebec
The Supreme Court of Canada issued a judicial opinion after the last referendum, basically saying that for the secession of Quebec to be legal, a clear majority must vote yes on a clear question. The Canadian government recently passed a federal law that says just that. It’s basically a licence for the federal government to dismiss or challenge any referendum result that passes the separatist’s criteria of success (50% + 1 vote yes on whatever question is proposed).
I think the most unlikely outcome of all is for Quebec to win a referendum and declare complete sovereignty and independence. If they did so, they would then be a country full of Canadian soldiers, federal buildings, federal roads, cash, and passport holders, which would put the new nation in a horrible position: either pay for all of it, or accept that most of the infrastructure in your country is owned and run by another nation. In addition to those costs, there would be the costs of developing their own money, embassies, trade agreements, etc. Furthermore, Quebec would lose all say in the administration of the Canadian dollar, so if they still used it they could be effectively and repeatedly shafted by the federal government. There would also be the issue of figuring out what to do with the three million citizens who want to remain Canadian, and hold passports or other documents to that effect: what do you do when 40% of your tax base says they don’t have to pay taxes because they’re citizens of another country and planning to move there?
The issue of the Cree in the north is also significant, since they hold ~20% of the land that happens to be the most resource rich. During the last referendum, they held their own referendum on whether to go with Quebec or stay with Canada: 95% voted for Canada. This puts a hardline stance on sovereignty in an even worse position, since they have no legal or moral basis for compelling the Cree to accept secession, and are faced with a choice to relinquish the Cree territory back to Canada, or brutally suppress any dissent by natives, who would certainly be supported by Canada and world opinion.
If separatists won a referendum that the federal government couldn’t dismiss (i.e., with 66% of the vote, as opposed to 50% +1), the more likely outcome is a series of negotiations in which the balance of power between the provinces and the federal government is shifted, eventually resulting in a new arrangement in which Quebec is outwardly still a part of Canada (uses Canadian money/financial institutions/diplomatic and trade ties/defense forces, etc.) and inwardly has greater administration over its own affairs.
Remember that the last referendum didn’t ask if Quebeckers wanted to declare their own sovereignty; it asked if Quebeckers wanted to pursue a new arrangement with the rest of Canada. Polls for both the yes and the no side showed that many who voted ‘yes’, did so believing that success would lead to something like the second scenario I outlined, and not the first. They believed Quebec would still have representatives in the Houses of Parliament, would still use Canadian money, and that they would retain Canadian citizenship. These ‘soft’ nationalists basically voted yes (and have repeatedly elected a separatist government) because they believed that a pro-sovereignty stance increased their stature and bargaining power at the federal level.
BTW, Jacque Parizeau’s embarassing gaffe in his speech following the referendum, in which he blamed the loss on “money and the ethnic vote”, was (according to an ethnic yes supporter I spoke to, who saw the text of the speech afterwards) a mistake he made by forgetting the next line: “next time, we’ll have to work harder to include them”. Parizeau was right: had the rich and the ethnic voters not voted ‘no’ almost unanimously, the separatists would have had a clear victory.
Never attribute to an -ism anything more easily explained by common, human stupidity.
Melin, some personal observations:
Twenty years ago, when I lived in Alberta, no one I knew seemed to think anything unusually strong against the then-new rumblings we heard from the PQ. (That is, the PQ were French and therefore dismissed, but no one got up in arms about the sovereignty of Canada.) Albertans also, from time to time, made noise about “separating.”
Recently, we had a (Han Chinese) acquaintance from Taiwan by way of British Columbia. She had lived in BC for about 5 years. When the subject of Quebec separatism came up, her face would twist with uncontrolled venom and she would say nasty and violent things about “people who would break up their country.” Now, it is true that she also strongly supported the maintenance of Chinese national borders by force if necessary, which fact left me to conclude that one or more of the following was true:
Canadians (or at least Vancouverites) indeed do have “issues” concerning Quebec separatism, statements on the subject of which are phrased strongly enough to twist the weak mind (it’s true) of this new arrival who did not have her own version of Canadian history against which to judge the situation;
She was transferring the anger and/or hatred she felt for those who would break up “her” country (China) to those who would break up her new country (Canada);
She just had problems, period, and observations concerning her do not apply to other Canadians. I tried to phrase a question along these lines to other Canadians in a previous thread but received no answer.
Patrinicus . . .I absolutly love this subject. While the ideal of Qececois sovereignty is a romantic ideal held by many in that province, I feel the harsh realities of what an independent Qubec would mean far outweigh that dream.
If you would like to read an outstanding book on the subject that was written before the most recent Quebecer referendum, I highly reccomend “O Canada”. I don’t remember the author, but he presents several actually very frightening scenarios should Quebec ever decide to secede from the Dominion of Canada. One of them includes a US invasion!!!
I’ve heard that if Quebec were to separate from Canada, the Maritime Provinces would too. But they would petition the USA to join.
Now how would we arrange 53 (54?) stars? 
I looked in the mirror today/My eyes just didn’t seem so bright
I’ve lost a few more hairs/I think I’m going bald - Rush
I don’t think that I can speak for all Vancouverites, but I’m not aware of any immigrant brainwashing camps within city limits… I don’t see any overtly anti-separatist movement in Vancouver, but I know there were some “issues” with Quebec separating - I would hope that the thought of 1/3 of your national population “separating” would get a reaction in any country not in severe civil unrest.
The truth is that a very large portion of the population in the Greater Vancouver region are first or second generation Canadians (50% of high-school students in Vancouver proper reguire english-as-a-second-language training). It’s no stretch to imagine some of them (such as the individual cited in an earlier posting) transferring the unrest in their home countries to our domestic front. But, there is no prolific anger-based campaign against the separatists. Living on the opposite side of the country, I see a lot of confusion and misuderstanding over the whole deal from BC’ers. We (generally) don’t appreciate or understand Quebec’s reasons for wanting to separate. In many ways that is their whole point.
Quebec wants to be recognized as a distinct society. Some people, epsecially in political circles, have taken this to an extreme and have offended a lot of anglos. But this is across the country, not just in BC.
The truth is, there are cultural differences (who else could think of poutine ;)). The question is how do (or do) we recognize them beyond the current measures. And how do you prevent the rest of the country (maritimes, western canada, central canada) from feeling alienated as well…
kylen
Just a quick note to THEUGLUTRUTH You said that in this book the author “presents several actually very frightening scenarios should Quebec ever decide to secede from the Dominion of Canada. One of them includes a US invasion!!!”
I say bring it on USA; Last time we had a “War” we brunt Washington to the ground…Quebec is our disobedient child let us handle it.
I personally can not see it (Quebec leaving Canada) ever happening. For starters the financial burden that would be placed on them would be enormous…hell Quebec is STILL paying for the 76 Olympics.
There are only two things that are infinite…the Universe and Man’s stupidity…I’m not sure about the Universe though.
Just a quick note to THEUGLUTRUTH You said that in this book the author “presents several actually very frightening scenarios should Quebec ever decide to secede from the Dominion of Canada. One of them includes a US invasion!!!”
I say bring it on USA; Last time we had a “War” we brunt Washington to the ground…Quebec is our disobedient child let us handle it.
I personally can not see it (Quebec leaving Canada) ever happening. For starters the financial burden that would be placed on them would be enormous…hell Quebec is STILL paying for the 76 Olympics.
There are only two things that are infinite…the Universe and Man’s stupidity…I’m not sure about the Universe though.
:::John Wayne swagger:::
“You’d better smiley face when you say that, podnuh.”
I live in Montreal… and right now, some 70% of Quebecers are sick to death of the entire bloody thing and consider it a royal waste of time. We want the government to be worrying about social programs, not this tripe.