Canada had a close shave with this issue several years ago but this topic has been out of the US news headlines for a while now so I am really not up on the current status of the Quebec Separatist movement.
Has any analysis/planning (whatever)been done on the real world ramifications of Quebec seceding from the rest of Canada. Is secession still a real possibility? Will they print their own money, field their own armed forces etc. etc., or is this the camping in the backyard version of nation building with Quebec wanting to maintain ties to Canada for this stuff?
What’s Quebec’s game plan for building a new nation from scratch? What’s the rest of Canada’s game plan for dealing with it if it occurs? Will the martime provinces really join the US (as another SDMB thread suggested) or is this pure bluff?
Sadly, the US military would, by necessity, be moved to the area of the border closest to Quebec.
US Naval forces would be deployed to the Great Lakes.
No. I am not trying to be humorous. I am discussing realpolitik.
A new government in Q. could go in many different political directions. If radical factions took control, the worst case scenario could be a government that would be as hostile as Iran.
Unlikely? Sure.
But no American President worth a tinker’s damn would be willing to risk this.
The US/Canadian border is the world’s longest unguarded land border. An often cited fact. But what is not often cited is the fact that this condition is based on mutual trust & long , close , relations.
We wouldn’t have that with the separatists.
Invading Canada was a “South Park” gag. Who could guess that one day , it might prove to be something we would need to consider?
I think Quebec, if it does decide to secede, will do it in a very nonviolent way. It will likely end up with a government friendly to Canada and the USA, if only because they lack the military to make a go of violent seperatism. If Canada fights Quebec on the field (unlikely if the secession is peaceful) the USA will have to field soldiers on Canada’s side simply because we can ill-afford a hostile state so close to our East Coast. The interesting side of it is how the United Nations and NATO will react. Both Canada and the USA are members in both, and the USA is a permanent Security Council member in the United Nations. If Quebec attacks us, the rest of NATO and the United Nations will have to come down on our side because of the charters of those groups. Great Britain would gladly fight to preserve a symbolic colony, but how gladly would France fight cultural allies? Quebec declaring independence would be as nothing compared to Quebec having to fight for independence.
Quebec would be foolhardy to pick a fight with either the rest of Canada or the U.S. Canada now is almost entirely dependent upon the U.S. for military defense. Quebec would be in an even weaker position.
Presumably Quebec would want to join NATO.
A bigger question is whether or not a Quebec-less Canada would still get to be a member of the G-7. I don’t believe Canada is actually in the top 7 anymore, but it is still holding on to its place in that group.
Whoa! The US would not have to deploy any troops along the Quebec boarder. First there was a referendum about 3 or 4 years ago on separation. It failed by a margin of 50.6% against and 49.4% in favour of separation. It was that close, and the US wasn’t gassing up the fighters. There had been some violence in the past. In the early 1970’s there was the separatist group (or terrorist depending on your POV) the FLQ. In the end they had killed 2 that I can remember, and Trudeau had the army out in Montreal.
Since that period the separation movement has taken on a highly political nature. The first referendum failed by a higher percentage than the second one did, but it did lead to a small exodus of anglophones from the province. I can’t remember if the separatist party has ever held power in Quebec, maybe Matt_mcl or zeenard can clarify this point.
What happens afterwards, if they did leave? It depends on how the rest of Canada wants to react. At the minimum Quebec would no longer get any federal funds which would place a higher burden on the taxpayers that already pay taxes through the nose. If or when Canada seeks Quebec’s share of the national debt, the pains would even get worse. I have always thought that if they left, they would be asking back in within 5 years.
The separatist party, the Parti Quebecois, has often held power in Quebec since 1976 (their first election win, when they took out an ad in the New York Times basically telling the US not to panic). Lucien Bouchard is the leader of the Parti Quebecois, and therefore Premier of Quebec under the British-style parliamentary system there.
About a year after the last referendum, there was a rash of stories in the papers about how Bouchard planned to declare independence unilaterally within a week of a successful (50% + 1) referendum.
Unfortunately the Toronto Star’s or the Globe and Mail’s online archives don’t go that far back. And the papers charge for more detailed searches. In the case of the Globe, it’s 70$ + 5$ per article.
You might want to take a look at an interesting book, “Canada Remapped” (ISBN 0-88978-249-0), by Scott Reid. It outlines various options that could be used to make separation as non-violent as possible, should Quebec actually vote to separate. Unfortunately, our federal government does not seem to have read this book.
Then there is the legendary Quebec comic book series Angloman, whose title character, Quebec’s best-known ethnic minority superhero, roams the skies of Montreal “making the world safe for apostrophes”…
If Quebec were to go its own way, the absolute last thing on Earth the Quebecois would want would be any sort of friction with its neighbors (incl. Canada) let alone military conflicts.
They would assuredly seek close economic ties with both Canada and especially the U.S.
And I can’t imagine Quebec become some sort of extremist state, either. The Canadian tradition of peace and democracy are as strong there as anywhere else in Canada, despite the obvious cultural squabbles and differences.
A more interesting question, I think, is the fate of the Maritimes. Anybody know what the current feeling about this is there?
And (even more important?) What would the then call the Montreal Candiens? The Montreal Quebecois?
Not between Canada and Quebec initially but between Quebec and the native Canadians in northwest Quebec. These natives who permitted major hydroelectric projects on their territory want to remain in Canada.
Quebec wants to retain the hydro dams on separation. So when (if) Quebec leaves Canada, the natives might just leave Quebec, leading to a very nasty situation.
Nixon, very true. Also, large parts of the province of Quebec are Anglophone. They would secede and join Ontario, or form a new Canadian province. You would end up with a very truncated country running along the shores of the St. Lawrence. I think this fear is what keeps the Francophones in the present union.
From what I’ve seen on TV Windsor news, all of the Anglophone politicians are talking like they’ll invade Quebec if they declare independence. I’m pretty sure it’s all bluff, however. I’d be absolutely shocked if any Canadians were willing to shed blood to keep Quebec a part of Canada. As for the Maritimes, I remember hearing some talk about them seceeding if Quebec leaves. I don’t know how popular the sentiment is, however. It’s believable because they’re pretty isolated (from the rest of anglo Canada) as it is, and if Quebec seceeded, they’d be little more than outposts for Ottawa.
I think a more likely scenario is that the provinces get together and hold a constitutional convention to deal with Canada’s pitfully weak central government. Quebec, and possably the Maritimes, would opt out at this stage. For stability’s sake, I’m sure everyone would agree that seccession could only occur at a provincial level. The “First Nations” would be sidelined, per usual :(. In fact, I remember hearing that the premiers held talks on government reform a little while ago, and the central government was not invited to attend!
Well, plus, if I’m not mistaken, Quebec draws more in government funding from Canada than it returns in taxes, and so would have a REAL hard time remaining financially solvent if it seceded. Some Canadians wouldn’t mind seeing Quebec leave, if for no other reason than it would actually save them a chunk of cash.
I don’t know all that much about the Canadian government or he basic principals it is built on, like a constitution, but I would assume that it has a simple principal built in, similar to one here in the States.
No sucession.
Here in the US, you can talk about it all you want, form your little parties, print your little pamphlets, say your little speeches, set up on paper your little constitutions and governments and even write to other nations concerning potential future trade and commerce.
However, actually try to succeed from the Union and the US military will come in, apply martial law, kick the butt of any armed resistance and remove and imprison any governing party along with the predominate rabble rousers.
Alaska has been grumbling about leaving the Union for some time since the government will not allow them to freely plunder their natural resources and strip the State bare. Plus, being a rather hard State to live in, naturally it draws a lot of people of the pioneer mentality who don’t like to answer all that much to authority. One guy, high in local politics, even flew to Russia in an attempt to form an alliance if Alaska withdrew and was politely listened to, smiled at a lot, then patted on his butt and urged to leave as Russia wisely decided to ignore him.
I would assume that if any section of Canada elected to withdraw from the whole that the Canadian military would step in. They, in turn, would probably request assistance from the US military, which is sitting on a whole bunch of modern weapons of mass destruction that have not been tested in a real war and is just itching for a fight.
Prism, Canada has no such provision. Diceman, nor have I ever heard any Canadian politician discussing invasion of Quebec. Any politician suggesting these things - in Ottawa or in Quebec City - would be immediately dismissed as a crackpot.
TNT, partitionism (which you describe) flared up during the last referendum, but it has not been seriously discussed.
FWIW, according to polls, between 70 and 80 percent of this province - both sovereignist and federalist - are sick to death of this whole issue and wish it would go away.
The worst part is that both the Liberals and the PQ in this province have pretty much the same neo-con social positions, which keeps people voting for them on sovereignty lines as though that were the only issue in the damn province.
I’m sure I heard someone suggesting it. Like I said, it didn’t come across as very credable, but I sure I heard it from some English speaking leader-type person on Channel 9. This was around the time when everyone was waiting for the Canadian Supreme Court to rule on the question, if that helps.
Well there was the Quebec Nordiques back in the day, but they --ahem-- seceded and came down to the States. Maybe they could become the Montreal Separatists.
