Quebec receives billions of dollars a year in federal transfer payments. If they leave, it’s going to cost them a lot. That is probably the primary motivating factor in keeping Quebec in Canada.
Separation in Canada is a very real possibility. Not just Quebec, but other Provinces. The Western provinces are exploited and under-represented in the Federal Government. Our federal elections are often decided before the votes from the western provinces are even tallied.
Alberta, where I’m from, is a very rich province, and politically conservative. Most Albertans disagree fundamentally with the way the country is run, and have for a long time. We basically donate billions of dollars a year to the other Canadian provinces, and yet are often treated unfairly by the East (a number of years ago we shut off the flow of oil to the East because of a new National Energy Policy that forced us to sell oil at a big discount to the East, while having to pay full retail prices for goods and services coming the other way. And, we were supposed to pay shipping both ways).
Canada is essentially a big socialist state, with ‘have’ provinces and ‘have not’ provinces. The ‘have’ provinces are taxed and the money funnelled to the 'have not’s. That seems fundamentally unstable to me.
Regarding Separation, one scenario I remember had the four Western Provinces joining the U.S., with Quebec as its own independent state, and the Maritimes and Ontario coalescing (and also possibly joining the U.S.). The big problem with this is that the U.S. would love the western provinces, but probably wouldn’t be thrilled about the Maritimes.
Sam: Don’t worry, I’m sure that Congress could be talked into admitting about ten new states and a territory or two :).
Hmm… Let’s review the situation: Sam says that the Western provinces don’t much care for their lot in life; The Maritimes feel like Ontario’s neglected step-children; and everyone knows that Quebec would love to find a painless way out. To add to that, I understand that there was alot of griping in the Northwest Territories after Nunavut was split off. Can someone remind me what’s holding Canada together?
I was in Montreal for the last referendum, and one of my philosophy professors worked for the “yes” side (of the separation question). He assured me that, having calculated the balance of payments between Quebec and the federal government, Quebec generally pays into it, rather than receives. Financially, he said, Quebec would be better of separating.
During the last referendum, some backbenchers in Parliament suggested invasion, or the wholesale arrest of the Bloq Quebecois (federal wing of the separatist movement) and the Parti Quebecois (provincial) for treason. Very quickly, General Jean de Chastelain, then head of Canadian Armed Forces, held a public press conference to announce that the Canadian military would not interfere in the separation of Quebec pursued by civil means (referendum and negotiation).
This isn’t true: the only parts where anglos are dominant are certain regions south of the St. Lawrence river; the rest of Quebec is massively francophone, except for the northern regions populated by Cree Indians. During the referendum, they held municipal referendums, and most voted to stay with Canada. However, I believe a judge ruled that they couldn’t - if the provincial referendum was legally binding, municipal referendums couldn’t override it.
During the referendum, the separatists were dismissive of these municipal statements of solidarity; they had a much bigger problem with the Cree in the North (the part of the province with significant natural resources) who voted 96% to stay with Canada, and had de facto control of the whole region.
The same professor I mentioned above assured me that, upon separation, taxes would drop for the average Quebecker because the provincial government would keep some of the federal taxes collected for themselves, and drop the rest. This would be true if the balance of payments favours Quebec separation.
Overall, the most seriously discussed plan among separatists (that drew much more moderate support than the previous, hard-line separation referendum did) was for the Quebec government to negotiate a new relationship with the federal government that would separate Quebec from the other provinces. The yes side said that an independent Quebec would continue to use Canadian money; Quebec citizens would continue to carry Canadian passports; a deal would be worked out with Canada for common defense and common diplomacy. Polls internal to the separatist side were leaked, showing that most Quebeckers who favored separation believed that Quebec would still have members of Parliament in Ottawa.
In other words, Quebec’s position within the federal framework would change to permit Quebec greater provincial control over its own affairs, and the right to call itself sovereign even though it wouldn’t really be. In this light, Parizeau’s plan to declare unilateral independence immediately following a yes vote would have been either a negotiating stance, or the real plan (for which the previous announcements of a close relationship with Canada were a cover). Personally, I suspect that it was a planned negotiating stance, since Quebec is not in a position to flourish with full independence: the only strong worldwide support and recognition they received was from le Francophonie, the organization of (declining) french speaking nations.
Separatism in the western provinces and the maritimes is minimal and fringe, and not to be taken seriously. There is real discontent in the west, given the massive weight of Ontario and Quebec in federal government, but neither area has any strong separatist movement. The maritimes especially are far too dependent on federal funding for their ruined economies.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t the U.S. Senate have to unanimously approve the entrance of new states to the union? Doesn’t it seem wildly implausible, then, that any Canadian province that separated would receive immediate statehood, especially given diplomatic pressure by the Canadian government (when Canada is one of the U.S.'s strongest trading partners)?
The Canadian government just passed a bill called the “Clarity Bill”, establishing as law a Supreme Court opinion that the government of Canada is obligated to negotiate separatism in the event of a referendum, but only in case of a clear majority (something higher than 50% + 1), and on a clear question.
There are no hard & fast population requirements for a state, but PEI has IIRC only about 100,000 people. Our least populous state, Wyoming, has over 5x that many. I’m not sure that PEI would be considered big enough.
It could be a territory, a US “possession” full of carefree, happy PE Islanders where honeymooners go to immerse themselves in the joys of connubial bliss.
What’s the weather like on PEI? Never mind I did a search on it. Here’s PEI’s home page http://www.gov.pe.ca/
Looks like a pretty neat place! Where’s my kayak!
Come home PEI, home to the large, soft, bosom of Mama America. Come suckle the wholesome non-divided milk of a United republic where secession is dealt with by … (insert Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address here).
At various times in US history, there were population requirements to become a state, most notably in the states of the Old Northwest. I believe the smallest state that ever made it in was Nevada, which was created during the Civil War, mainly to ensure that there would be two more Republicans in the Senate.
PEI would have to advertise itself as “The Cute State.” Or “Yes, there is a bridge to get here!”
I’m giggling at the thought of the mixing of Mississippians and Newfoundlanders. That’s a culture clash no one would be ready for.
If the Maritimes were part of the US, I would hope they would get better airline connections to the US. It’s not particularly easy to fly to any of the major cities from the US (I don’t even know if there any flights that originate in the US that go to Halifax.)
It would be a pain to have travel from one US state to another via a foreign country.
I would think that Canadian provinces, like US states, are sort of set up so that once you make “the club”, you can’t get kicked out.
Nevada’s population dropped to something like 40,000 during the late 19th Century, but no one ever thought of giving it the boot (which is almost impossible to do under the US Constitution.)
Since the Canadian Confederation traces its birth back to Charlottetown, PEI that probably removes any doubt.
I did visit the chamber where the PEI Assembly (is that the proper word) meets. Like most of PEI, it was small and cute.
It’s my understand that Quebec has been in negotiations with the US State Department for sometime about becoming a state (that IS what the state department does, right?). Anyway, the talks supposedly hit a snag recently when some wag on the negotiating team kept referring to Quebec as French Puerto Rico.
Don’t blame me, it wasn’t true even BEFORE I made it up!
PEI was originally part of Nova Scotia, which also included New Brunswick. Following the unplesantness in the lower 13 colonies, around 1785 the Brits divided Nova Scotia into four colonies: Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, PEI, and Cape Breton Island, on the “divide and rule” theory. Cape Breton was later re-united with Nova Scotia, but PEI stayed separate.
Interestingly, the Charlottetown Conference was originally billed as a conference to discuss Maritime Union, which might have re-united PEI with Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, but those pushy Upper and Lower Canadians crashed it and sold the delegates on the larger Confederation project.
Even back then, the population disparities between the provinces were very large, which shows up in the allocation of seats in the federal Senate. Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes each got the same number of Senate seats, 24. The Maritime contingent is divided 10 to Nova Scotia, 10 to New Brunswick and 4 to PEI. (Newfoundland joined in 1949, and got 6 seats.)
Oh, and as for the wholesomness of PEI, recent academic scholarship argues that the Anne of Green Gables books reek of crypto-lesbian love themes (not that there’s anything wrong with that…)
The Lower North Shore region (east of the Natashquan River) is overwhelmingly anglophone (francophones are in third place behind the Innu), and the north of Quebec is also populated by Inuit, with the Cree and Innu in between them and the rest of the province. The Pontiac region to the nw of Ottawa also has a very strong anglo presence.
There are plenty of Newfoundlanders working throughout the US, including Mississippi, as well as Newfoundland women who married American men stationed in Nfld during the war. And there were undoubtedly no shortage of Mississippians at those Nfld bases, either.
I know there are daily non-stops between Halifax and Boston, and possibly connections to New York as well. Once you’re in Halifax it’s not hard to get anywhere else in Atlantic Canada, since just about every flight to the region, with a few minor exceptions, goes through Halifax anyway.
