There will be a general election in the province of Quebec on April 7. The Parti Québécois is currently in power, but with a minority government prior to calling the general election.
The PQ had a lead in the polls when they called the election, but the federalist Liberals have been surging in the polls, apparently because the PQ has been emphasising the sovereignty issue, and most Québécois seem to be tired of it.
Those numbers translate into a potential Liberal majority government:
It appears that recruiting Karl Peladeau was a mistake for the PQ, as he put the separatism issue front and centre, instead of letting the PQ concentrate on their record in government.
Pauline Marois warns smaller, more hard-line sovereigntist party about dangers of vote-splitting. That’s usually the sign a party is in trouble in an election.
The shift to the Liberals seems to have come from a drop in the support of the Coalition Avenir Québec, which was a third party formed before the last election, campaigning on trying to put the sovereignty issue away and concentrating on economic and general social issues.
In retrospect, the CAQ probably did well last time out of disgust with the corruption issue, which tarred the Liberals, then in power, but it looks like a classic “vote-parking.” Now that the Liberals have been out of power for a couple of years, and the sovereignty issue has come up again, voters are leaving the CAQ and heading solely to the Liberals.
there is a real disconnect on the issue of a possible referendum:
The PQ support continues to fall. Significantly, not only are they behind the Liberals in the polls, the Liberals are polling neck and neck with the PQ amongst francophone voters. That is unusual; the PQ normally has a consistent lead over the Liberals amongst francophones:
And there has been speculation that this election may be a watershed for the sovereigntists. Unlike previous elections, there hasn’t been a major push by the normal agents of federalism, such as the federal parties or the federal government. It’s been fought entirely as a Quebec election, with sovereignty as the issue, whether the PQ likes it or not: and they’ve dropped steadily in the polls the more sovereignty is seen as the issue:
PLQ’s lead: It seems that in the 2012 elections, the PQ won against the PLQ because the CAQ took votes away from the PLQ, right?
I’m getting the impression that the CAQ is losing votes which are going back to the PLQ.
I’m guessing the PQ got scared by QS, sought to have an exciting program but left a lot of people uneasy with secession and the proposed charter.
I think that’s right - although the Coalition did get a bump in the polls after the last debate, which their leader seems to be have won.
My impression is that Marois has fractured the coalition between pur laine sovereigntists and the leftist sovereigntists, both by the Charter of Values, and by Peladeau. How can a party that puts forward Peladeau as a star candidate simultaneously claim to be left-wing?
And, the values Charter seems to be turning off those sovereigntists who put a lot of emphasis on respecting individual equality, even if it plays well among the pur laine types.
Never go full pure laine.
Kinda weird what the PQ’s been doing. Aligning with the students and then having them turn on the PQ, Peladeau, Charter of Values (and saying that ain’t no Supreme Court gonna tell 'em what to do).
Perhaps they thought that the Charter, Lisée (a fork-tongued columnist) and Peladeau were going to be the charismatic stars that would rally people around the PQ? They forgot that while flash attracts attention, it doesn’t last long.
Saying that she’ll use the notwithstanding clause is pretty much an admission that her “values charter” infringes the “values” of freedom of religion and freedom of expression.
I’ll wait until the votes are counted, but I remember the conversations that happened after the last PQ collapse. Sovereignists were searching for reasons on how Jean Charest’s Liberals could win despite the public being so annoyed by JC. Self reflecting conversations focused on Quebec’s possible homophobia toward Boisclair, however there was a small lingering doubt that maybe the Quebec people are starting to fear the PQ and that dreaded R-word.
Gone are the constitutional crisis days of the 80’s and 90’s that fueled sovereignist resentment above economic practicality. Pauline Marois has been slyly constructing controversy against religious minorities as a method of keeping cultural issues (PQ’s raison d’etre) at the forefront. This serves to goad people into voting PQ as a romanticized bulwark for tradition (as well as serving up easy “red meat” issues to party faithfuls). However, if this election goes the way the polls are saying the separatism window is truly closing.
Here’s hoping that the election after this will be fought mainly on real “bread and butter” issues that the Quebec people face and not on the possibility/fear of a referendum.
Latest poll has the Liberals at 44%, and the PQ and the Coalition essentially tied at ~ 23% each. If that holds tomorrow, it could mean the Coalition has a shot at becoming the Official Opposition and the PQ in third place. Will depend on the voter distribution and the strength of each party’s “get out the vote” apparatus.
It seems that Quebec politics are more the PLQ’s to lose than anything. The PLQ had been there for a while and even after a scandal, the PQ only got a minority government which it seems set to lose half a term later.
If I were in the PQ, I’d really wonder what I have to do to win. Boisvert’s preppiness didn’t work. Identity stuff didn’t work. Secession talk didn’t work.
Economic populism? With the popularity of Action Démocratique then and the CAQ now, it doesn’t seem fertile.
The landscape would chaneg very much if it became a game between the PLQ and the CAQ.