I’m sure many of you niticed that poker is televised on numerous networks. Most often, Texas Hold 'Em is the game of choice. Cameras are placed so that the viewing audience can see a player’s hole cards. Usually, after the 1st round of play, each player’s probability of winning the hand is shown. My question is: Do these probabilities reflect the cards of all of the players, or are they based on an individual player’s perspective?
For example, assume that there are 9 players at a table. 7 players fold pre-flop. 2 players are left after the flop. Player A has 2 Queens in the hole. Player B has 2 Jacks in the hole. The flop comes out Q J J. Now Player A needs the last Queen to come out on either of the last 2 cards to win. But we may already know that Player C, who has already folded, had the last Queen. In that case, Player A has no chance of winning, or a probability of 0%, should both players stay in until the end. But from Player A’s perspective, he still has a slight chance of winning since he has no idea about Player C’s folded Queen. So to him, the probability of winning is (1/31) + (1/30) or 6.56%.
The example I gave is rare. If it occurred, it would be easy to figure out the answer to my question. But most poker situations are more complex.
Not exactly what you asked, but I read an interview with Van Patton, one of the announcers on the Travel Channel’s show, and he said that they edit in about half of their commentary after the fact. So I believe the odds shown are given all of their knowledge, including the down cards that are shown. Of course Travel Channel doesn’t always show odds (but they do on ESPN). My assumption is that ESPN does the same thing, editing after the fact to show hand odds based on known information (to the quasi-omnipotent viewer) after the fact.
It depends on the show and the hands. I have heard comments both ways from commentators. “Normally the odds would be X but we know that So and So folded the last Queen so that means So and Such is drawing dead.”
“A pair of pocket sixes with three over cards on the flop will win the pot only X percent of the time.”
I can’t find a precise cite for your question, but it is something that has been discussed on poker message boards for some time. The Travel Chanell does take into account all known dead cards on its World Poker Tour series. ESPN, it appears, using back of the napkin type math, does not. For example, if you play poker often, or if you use a website like www.twodimes.net, you can figure out the odds yourself.
When I was watching ESPN I entered some hands in there and found that the odds were only considering the cards of the live players, and did not include cards known to be dead.