I was watching a tournament on World Poker Tour last night, and as most of you know, they show the players’ odds, based on his cards (strangely enough ).
Player A had pocket nines, Player** B**, A-10 suited.
Odds: 52-48 in favor of A.
Then another player mucked and one of his cards was a 9. But this didn’t affect A’s odds.
My question: Shouldn’t it have? Or shouldn’t the commentators have at least mentioned the mucked nine with a lowering of A’s chances?
FYI, neither player improved and A won the pot.
Unrelated…
I had a bad beat the other night. Pocket queens. Flopped a set and went all in. Another guy had pocket jacks and he flopped a set, too. Now there’s only one card in the deck that could cause that guy to win - the case Jack, and he caught it on the River.
I considered shooting myself, but the noise would have kicked in my tinnitus. So I chugged some Polonium in my last glass of Macallan Scotch.
The story is true, only the aftermath has been slightly exaggerated to fit your TV.
Yes, the 9 did affect the odds but it seems that they don’t include other player’s cards when they calculate the odds. I’ve never made note of that before but now that I think about it, I can’t remember them ever using mucked hands in the odds calculations. The commentators should have made note of it.
That sucks. At least the guy was betting correctly for the situation. Imagine if he was in there with a hand that easily should have been mucked pre-flop.
As you know, your probabilities of catching an out are always calculated by the cards that aren’t visible to you, including your opponents’ hole cards. So, the percentage on screen would be the player’s calculation of his own odds, not the odds as per some omniscient 3rd party, which would seem a bit intrusive (imho) and confuse the hell out of newbies watching the game.
This isn’t true at all. All of the opponent’s cards still in the hand are used in the calculation. It’s not the player’s calculation of his own odds because your opponent(s) may have some of your outs.
But how does the player know that? The only thing the player knows is that there are 2 9’s remaining in the other 50 cards that he hasn’t seen, so he has a 1 in 25 chance of catching one more 9. For people who can see all of the hole cards, of course we know that those odds are worse. At the table, though, the player realizes that 2 9’s may not be in play, but probabilistically he has that 4% chance of catching a set, so that’s the information the player has to proceed on.
I think the solution is that at this point in the hand, the player with 99 is a 52% favorite, regardless of the 9s left, because that player is ahead in the hand. If A10 had flopped an A, then you would see that 99 was 4% on the turn and 2% on the river, correctly showing that one of his out cards was out of play, and the commentators would have acknowledged it.
I think the solution is that at this point in the hand, the player with 99 is a 52% favorite, regardless of the 9s left, because that player is ahead in the hand. If A10 had flopped an A, then you would see that 99 was 4% on the turn and 2% on the river, correctly showing that one of his out cards was out of play, and the commentators would have acknowledged it. Also, the player with 99 isn’t counting his outs at all at this point, because he is assuming he is ahead. He probably assumes he is against 2 overs(correctly), and is in a coin flip. If he really thought he was against 1010-AA he wouldnt be in the hand.
This is the biggest reason for reraising a preflop raise when you hold 88-1010(or maybe JJ), especially if you are out of position. By reraising, your opponents response tells you pretty much what they have…if they call, its probably AK or AQ (or KJ etc for looser players), if they fold you were probably up against a smaller pair or a blind steal, and if you get reraised its pretty obvious you are against a higher pair.
What we are talking about here is poker games shown on TV and how the odds calculated for the viewers. In that case, opponents hole cards are used in the calculation but not hands that are mucked pre-flop.
I think what you saw was an anomaly. When I’ve watched, they do include cards if they are shown to the camera but if someone mucks their cards blind then obviously it doesn’t go into the calculation.
The answer, as with so many other questions in poker, is “it depends.” It depends on the individual program whether the posted odds do or don’t take into account the mucked cards. The Professional Poker Tour, for instance, not only takes mucked cards into account but notes in the on-screen graphics which of the underdog’s outs have been mucked. The WPT usually takes mucked cards into account and Mike Sexton will sometimes note that an out has been folded. ESPN’s coverage of the WSOP doesn’t take mucked cards into account in its percentages, mostly I think because the WSOP coverage doesn’t show everyone’s hole cards for each hand covered.
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