https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/ps05102016_Sw4b42d.pdf
Florida: 43% for Clinton vs 42% for Trump
Ohio: 43% for Trump vs 39% for Clinton
Pennsylvania: 43% for Clinton vs 42% for Trump
Do those polling results surprise anyone else?
no it doesn’t given Quinnipiac’s oversampling of Republicans in the primaries, and them hiding their partisan breakdown in this poll. Yes they got a good rating in 2012, but this year, they’re doing pretty badly https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CiGC_KNW0AAGOok.jpg .
It’s basically QU trying to get their name in the news to get new students because Quinnipiac University has no academics to speak of.
I’d be surprised to learn it’s that close, but that would require other polling to get a sense of how accurate this poll was.
Indeed, the odd results from Quinnipiac are more noticeable when looking that other polls from Ohio, Quinnipiac is the one that comes with that result of seeing Trump ahead, the aggregate still shows Clinton ahead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html
(click or scroll down to see all other polls)
We’ll see what happens with more polls, but as it was pointed in another thread Romney also showed similar numbers around the time he clinched the nomination and we know what did happen in the general election.
Romney is not Trump, and this is not 2012.
Obviously the Donald has his weaknesses, but he’s been an elusive target. He has no ideology, which makes him hard to attack. He can say what he wants, make up his own facts, and he seems no worse for the wear. Hillary has an identity to maintain. Trump does not. And in 2016, the normal rules don’t apply.
It would surprise me if the final results are that close.
But one of the cool things about this cycle is that Dems don’t need those states to win if they win the rest of the Obama 2012 states plus one of the 51/49 states like NC or IN. They have a lot more flexibility on the map, whereas Trump needs to run the table of swing states. Focusing on FL and OH is the politics of 2000, not 2016.
Ironically, one of the problems with playing the white male card is that it’s going to make it hard for Trump to win places like NC.
Of course, I see it worse for the Republicans.
Partially correct, once again you are concentrating on the “genius” shown by Trump in the Republican sandbox; in the big playground, as in the matching general election polls, at the same time you and many others saw no wear and tear, the same pollsters that pointed at Trump wining among Republicans they showed at the same time that Trump has faded in the general election polls. And I should point out there are states that are not looking to be as red as before, and once again thanks to what Trump has said and done like in Arizona where the latest polls are showing Clinton ahead of Trump.
What surprises me the least is the attention this poll is and will get as an item devoid of its context as a relative outlier. (Yes RCP shows for example the next most Marist with Clinton +15 in PA compared to Quinnipiac Clinton +1, and the next most recent Florida poll, AIF, had Clinton +13 to their +1).
Smerconish had a segment today about how the media and political business model will, not by any conspiracy but by self-interests, work hard in the next months to build up Trump and beat down Clinton because they need there to be as close of a horse race as possible to keep their business model solvent.
That said polling will be interesting as different houses try out different approaches to figuring out who likely voters may or may not be this time. Trump’s path, such as it is, depends as much as anything else on previously unlikely voters voting. How do you capture how good he is or is not doing at motivating that in advance?
Can I just say, “Consider the source,” and be done with it?
I’m surprised anyone pays any attention to any polls like this at this point in the election cycle. The election starts in Sept.
Looking at that, I noticed an interesting trend. Trump was relatively static (42-43), while Clinton has steadily declined in those 4 polls.
3/2-3/6 she was at 50%
3/4-3/10 she was at 48%
4/26-4/27 she was at 45%
4/27-5/8 she was at 39%
I do wonder what additional polling will show.
What strikes me is the high number of undecideds. That could be the reason the polls look the way they do. Sanders supporters might not be ready to come home yet.
GIGObuster already mentioned it but as I pointed out in this post in another thread there is nothing surprising about this. In 2008 McCain and Obama were polling the same in these states at this point as were Romney and Obama in 2012.
John Mace has it correct - it is way too early to be paying attention to these polls.
I hereby predict, confidently, that Hillary will get a higher percent of the vote in Pennsylvania than she gets in IN and, probably, NC. Pennsylvania is, quite simply, a Must-Win state for the Democrats.
PA is necessary but not sufficient: WI and VA may also be in doubt.
But I join Dopers in hoping that six months from now we’ll all be laughing about how anyone could have predicted the election would be anything but a huge landslide.
I usually chortle at some of the crap that CNN spouts but I thought their panel of election night buffs was actually on the mark with their discussion last night. The republican voters are starting to accept that Trump is their nominee, and most republicans and even independents who lean right have a hatred of the Clintons. They may not like Trump but they’re going to have a candidate who will taunt, bully, and harass the Clintons the way that nobody ever has. We can dissect all of the data that would point to all of the logical explanations as to why Trump shouldn’t win, but if there’s one thing that Trump has shown is that his ability to connect with certain types of voters is something that data crunchers have been completely and utterly unable to account for. That explains why, despite the fact that Hillary dominated Bernie in most of the key battleground states, Bernie actually polls better against Trump, which is not at all to say that he’d do better in the end – I don’t think he would, as Trump would revert back to being the “You’re a communist” name-calling republican.
See, that’s what makes Trump so tricky. He won the republican nomination by being able to play both sides of the political spectrum. His party’s establishment refuses to accept the outcome, but the more that the voters speak, and the more apparent it becomes that the establishment really has no choice but to accept the results, the more likely it is that they’ll hold their noses and begrudgingly support Trump, especially if he can assure them that they’ll have at least some hands in the administration, which seems plausible given that Donald’s a complete novice and will undoubtedly need some of those supporters.
another reason that makes ignoring these polls the right thing, aside from QU’s poor record, is that if the national ones that have Hillary up > 7% are accurate, then the idea that there could be a popular-electoral split is idiocy; only 4 out of 57 elections in this country’s history has that happened. What happened in 2000 is probably going to be a once in a lifetime event for all of us. No one alive on Earth today has lived thru both 1888 and 2000 election days, or lived during a time in which both Ben Harrison AND Dubya were POTUS.
Also, since the pop vote was widely counted, from 1828 onward, the largest popular vote margin which occurred in a pop-electoral split (1876, 1888, 2000) was in 1876, a 3% point difference (50.9%-47.9% in which Hayes, the latter, won the EV). In a standard poll, 3% is the margin of error, so that election itself had results that could be called a statistical tie were they a poll. 1888 and 2000 were within 1% nationally.
I am surprised each and every time I hear that someone, anyone, is planning to vote for Donald Trump for President of the United States.
It is advantage Clinton as of now. she has not been picked the nominee yet. I think if was was confirmed nomination at the point, her lead over Trump in the polls would have been bigger at this point. If Bernie becomes VP candidate, Hillary’s lead would be even bigger.
This doesn’t mean it can’t change till Nov. But at this point, she is leading comfortably.
Don’t believe the Quinnipiac poll.
They appear to be even more biased toward Republicans than Rasmussen.
Pay the poll no mind. Trump supporters, go ahead and plan that November vacation away from your polling place.
Do you read outside the Democrat bubble? Trump is articulating issues which matter to some people in language that they understand.