Rank how likely the liberal freak out item for a Trump presidency is...

Politics & Elections
1

Not even getting into the desirability of the act or action - just how likely you think it is to actually be done, as liberals fear:

[ul]
[li]Irresponsible use of nuclear weapons, over which he has sole authority.[/li][li]Abolishment of major government agencies, including the FDA, EPA, DoE, etc.[/li][li]Defaulting on, or demanding a haircut on, national debt.[/li][li]Refusal to honor treaties unless payment is made.[/li][li]Encouraging religious discrimination against Muslims and LGBT people through policy and Cabinet appointments.[/li][li]Large scale deportations.[/li][li]Cancelling provisions of the ACA without any action regarding those dropped from coverage.[/li][li]Discouragement of action regarding global temperature changes that significantly impact the general effort to alter their rates.[/li][li]Implementing a federal abortion ban.[/li][li]Fulfilling campaign threats to silence, sue, or censor past critics.[/li][li] Supreme Court justices who will advance any or most of the above.[/li][/ul]

Again, I’m looking to discuss likelihood here, not desirability. I want to give a realistic, stony eyed look at the panic. Liberals, feel free to remind me of any I’ve forgotten.

2

[ul]
[li]Irresponsible use of nuclear weapons, over which he has sole authority. 1% which is 1% too much[/li][li]Abolishment of major government agencies, including the FDA, EPA, DoE, etc. 5%[/li][li]Defaulting on, or demanding a haircut on, national debt. 15%[/li][li]Refusal to honor treaties unless payment is made. 20%[/li][li]Encouraging religious discrimination against Muslims and LGBT people through policy and Cabinet appointments. 95%[/li][li]Large scale deportations. 75%[/li][li]Cancelling provisions of the ACA without any action regarding those dropped from coverage. 98%[/li][li]Discouragement of action regarding global temperature changes that significantly impact the general effort to alter their rates. 100%[/li][li]Implementing a federal abortion ban. 100%[/li][li]Fulfilling campaign threats to silence, sue, or censor past critics. 90%[/li][li] Supreme Court justices who will advance any or most of the above. 100%[/li][/ul]

3

[ul]
[li]Irresponsible use of nuclear weapons, over which he has sole authority: near zero, but you want just plain zero.[/li][li]Abolishment of major government agencies, including the FDA, EPA, DoE, etc.: more likely form over substance if it happens[/li][li]Defaulting on, or demanding a haircut on, national debt.: see misuse of nukes[/li][li]Refusal to honor treaties unless payment is made.: talk not action[/li][li]Encouraging religious discrimination against Muslims and LGBT people through policy and Cabinet appointments.: in the eye of the beholder, people on the left will say this is happening, but a different question whether somebody from Mars will agree[/li][li]Large scale deportations.: much larger than Obama’s, very unlikely[/li][li]Cancelling provisions of the ACA without any action regarding those dropped from coverage.: very likely ACA is repealed, very likely many won’t be satisfied with what replaces it[/li][li]Discouragement of action regarding global temperature changes that significantly impact the general effort to alter their rates.: certain[/li][li]Implementing a federal abortion ban.: near zero chance, even assuming you mean after USSC overturns Roe, which isn’t going to happen for awhile if ever. And then even pro-life people almost uniformly say it should be a state issue. Plus Trump doesn’t actually care about abortion rights either way.[/li][li]Fulfilling campaign threats to silence, sue, or censor past critics.: eye of beholder, again likely to be minor in a person from Mars view[/li][li] Supreme Court justices who will advance any or most of the above.: He will certainly try to nominate conservative justices, he was more specific about that (list of nominees) than any other realistic thing. Whether he succeeds (only 51 or 52 GOP in Senate, not certain they’d want to ‘nuclear option’ USSC appointments) uncertain, besides it being uncertain whether any more justices pass away or retire while Trump is in office, besides the one currently open seat.[/li][/ul]

4

I have to remark that I do think that even the simple act of starting the ball rolling for any of those items will depress the economy or the markets…

Trump is the type of guy that even telegraphed that he would come ahead if that takes place (see what Trump said about Brexit).

There is no need even to complete the task, the unrest even before any item becomes reality is what he wants.

5

Irresponsible use of nuclear weapons, over which he has sole authority.
Low. I refuse to believe this is back on the table after 70 years of not using it. This is the one issue I can see all Republicans standing up to him on, because its just that bad

Abolishment of major government agencies, including the FDA, EPA, DoE, etc.
Probably we’re likely to see the death or severe curtailing of one or more agencies.

Defaulting on, or demanding a haircut on, national debt.
I can imagine him trying to get a “deal” done without knowing exactly what that means. We’ll lose even more of our country’s credit rating but I’m sure he doesn’t care about that

Refusal to honor treaties unless payment is made.
This depends on if something’s going to trigger an automatic response. Probably the Eastern European countries are sweating right now and looking for change under the couch cushions. With everyone else, its not fun to think of, but unless there’s a war they don’t have to worry about the US not living up to its obligations

Encouraging religious discrimination against Muslims and LGBT people through policy and Cabinet appointments.
I expect a wave of anti-Sharia law type bills to be passed. A wave of cementing that this country is Judeo-Christian and that means only Christian prayers before local committee meetings, for example, or not enforcing anti-discrimination laws to protect gays in work and business

Large scale deportations.
Logistically, this is probably impossible. I think at most, he’ll deport a nominal amount of people as a publicity thing and call it a day

Cancelling provisions of the ACA without any action regarding those dropped from coverage.
Yup, this is gone within a year

Discouragement of action regarding global temperature changes that significantly impact the general effort to alter their rates.
Maybe he’ll tell China to stop making up fake carbon particles and putting them into the air to trick people. We’ll probably pull out of any treaties we have on reducing global warming, and go full boar into oil and coal. We’ll be drilling in ANWR pretty soon, and offshore, and he’ll be selling our national parks to the highest bidder for drilling

Implementing a federal abortion ban.
Roe v. Wade is still in effect. I don’t know how much he can do except reinstitute the Mexico City Policy like every Republican before him

Fulfilling campaign threats to silence, sue, or censor past critics.
Yeah I don’t even know what crazy form this censorship is going to take

Supreme Court justices who will advance any or most of the above.
He has a list already and they’re all bad. So one or more of them, depending on how long RGB can keep going

6

Aye, Ruth Gader Binsburg is getting up there. :wink:

7

Trump is not a policy wonk who campaigned because of a vision for America. He’s an effeminate showman who has no major positions beyond his stances on trade and immigration which were, themselves, advanced more as posture than principle. To prolong his honeymoon he will follow the lead of the Republican Congress on most issues.

The big question therefore is: Will the Republican Congress give in to the excessive urges of the Tea Party and the Koch Brothers? Or will leaders like Paul Ryan behave like adults and tame the unleashed beast? Only a few years ago, Ryan was the epitome of right-wing flatulence … but now we must look to him for moderate leadership. :smack:

From his cantankerous list, Trump will select those items which might give him good publicity. He won’t try to default on U.S. debt, but he’ll make loud noises against America’s partners and against countries like China. He’ll spend billions on an ineffective wall since that was his main promise. If Black or Muslim groups denounce him, he’ll double-down on the hatred; for this reason some of the groups Trump has denounced may extend an olive-branch, flatter Trump, and hope for mercy. Although he’s been a moderate (almost a liberal) most of his life, he’ll appoint right-wingers to the courts and cabinets to please his base.

The real danger will come in foreign affairs, over confrontations in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, disputed Chinese claims, or somewhere else. The danger is not that he will petulantly order a nuclear strike without provocation, but that through ignorance and arrogance he will misread America’s adversaries and allow a crisis to fester until there is no good action for U.S. to take. Be sure that Russia and China are very aware of his weaknesses and will be operating with great cleverness to manipulate and exploit Trump.

I don’t know what will happen with Obamacare. Will the GOP decide they need several months to plan a replacement, or will they repeal it in January 2017? Given their rhetoric, can they not repeal it right away? Another issue on which they may have bitten off more than they can chew is illegal immigrants: can they not crack down hard? The U.S. economy is dependent on illegal workers. Anti-immigration measures and anti-Obamacare are each likely to lead to recession. But while suffering was eased in past recessions with programs like extended unemployment benefits, Trump policies will be designed to prop up wealth of the elites at the expense of the working class. It has been American prosperity that has kept the world economy afloat, so the recession will quickly spread around the world.

America and the world have survived recessions before. The gravest dangers will come in geopolitics as America loses respect around the world and, quite likely, makes severe blunders when (not if, but when) war breaks out.

8

I forgot to answer OP’s question. Here are the items on OP’s list ordered, IMHO, roughly from most likely to least likely:

Supreme Court justices who will advance any or most of the above.

Fulfilling campaign threats to silence, sue, or censor past critics.

Encouraging religious discrimination against Muslims and LGBT people through policy and Cabinet appointments.

Discouragement of action regarding global temperature changes that significantly impact the general effort to alter their rates.

Cancelling provisions of the ACA without any action regarding those dropped from coverage.

Abolishment of major government agencies, including the FDA, EPA, DoE, etc.

Refusal to honor treaties unless payment is made.

Large scale deportations.

Implementing a federal abortion ban.

Irresponsible use of nuclear weapons, over which he has sole authority.

Defaulting on, or demanding a haircut on, national debt.

9

There were groups of people claimed their vote for Trump was tempered by the belief that Congress would restrain his worst excesses. Now, god forbid, we put that to the test

10

Sorry, but although I was not a fan of Trump and did not vote for Trump, my only concerns about his judicial appointments arise from not trusting him to stick to his list.

As a general rule, I approve of the names he published. I have always felt, and continue to feel, that the proper role of a federal judge is as an umpire: he should apply the law as written to the facts at hand, and NOT attempt to bring his desired policy outcomes into play by extrapolating from the written law.

As a general rule, liberal judges do not adopt that view. They regard the Constitution as a living document, to be shaped by judges’ decisional law to advance society. I will be pleased if Trump sticks to his list, for the most part.

So that brings me to the comment above: “Supreme Court justices who will advance any or most of the above…” and how to respond.
[ul]
[li]Irresponsible use of nuclear weapons, over which he has sole authority.[/li][li]How would a Supreme Court judge influence this?[/li][li]Abolishment of major government agencies, including the FDA, EPA, DoE, etc.[/li][li]Trump’s Congress could abolish these agencies, and the Supreme Court should have no role whatsoever; there is no constitutional requirement for an FDA or an EPA. On the other hand, if Trump somehow attempted to shut down the FDA by saying that the employees are “Fired!” then I would expect that the Supreme Court would rule against him, and I expect every name on his list would agree.[/li][li]Defaulting on, or demanding a haircut on, national debt.[/li][li]The Constitution provides, “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.” I expect that every name on his list would uphold that mandate. But you may be confusing a refusal to raise the debt ceiling with defaulting – are you?[/li][li]Refusal to honor treaties unless payment is made.[/li][li]This depends on many factors - is the treaty approved by the Senate? Self-executing? I really don’t have the slightest clue what you’re picturing.[/li][li]Encouraging religious discrimination against Muslims and LGBT people through policy and Cabinet appointments.[/li][li]I would expect that every name on Trump’s list would enforce the RFRA and RLUIPA at the federal level.[/li][li]Large scale deportations.[/li][li]Very possible, but assuming you mean deporting people that are already deportable under law, what possible action would a Supreme Court justice take to stop it?[/li][li]Cancelling provisions of the ACA without any action regarding those dropped from coverage.[/li][li]Very possible, but do you think there is a constitutional right to the ACA that the correct Supreme Court justice could protect?[/li][li]Discouragement of action regarding global temperature changes that significantly impact the general effort to alter their rates.[/li][li]Very possible, but do you think that the correct Supreme Court justice should discover a constitutional right to carbon reduction?[/li][li]Implementing a federal abortion ban.[/li][li]Finally! Yes, this would absolutely involve (as a first and second step) the concurrence of the Supreme Court. One step I’d agree with: overturning R v W. This would leave the matter in states’ hands. The second step would be a federal law prohibiting abortion. This I would favor as a result but disfavor as an action because it’s beyond the reach of federal power, so here the Supreme Court would have to validate that law in opposition to correct law (as I see it).[/li][li]Fulfilling campaign threats to silence, sue, or censor past critics.[/li][li]Almost every attempt along these lines would run afoul of the First Amendment and I would expect every judge on Trump’s list to agree[/li][/ul]

11

Normally I have little patience for fearmongering, but Trump is truly unpredictable so anything liberals believe, and many things they can’t imagine, could actually happen. Well, except for the usual tropes, like forcing grannies to eat dog food.

12

Irresponsible use of nuclear weapons, over which he has sole authority.

Close to zero, but a tiny increase in the likelihood of such a catastrophe is still grounds for a lot of concern. If something is at a trillion on the badness scale, a thousandth of a percent increase in likelihood is still a lot of risk.

Abolishment of major government agencies, including the FDA, EPA, DoE, etc.

Actual abolition? Next to zero. The agencies might be gutted, but the names will be kept around to lend authority to whatever he does. The EPA will enthusiastically approve of his energy policy, the FDA will be kept around to approve of his gutting of Medicare and the ACA, and the Department of Education will promote his sale of the education system to for-profit charter school magnates.

Defaulting on, or demanding a haircut on, national debt.

I actually think a default will become less likely in January, simply because of single-party control of government.

Refusal to honor treaties unless payment is made.

Maybe 5%. More if he actually takes over foreign policy. I suspect we’re going to find quite soon that his State and Defense departments will look a lot like they did in 2003. This is disconcerting for a number of reasons, but not that reason.

Encouraging religious discrimination against Muslims and LGBT people through policy and Cabinet appointments.

100% or close to it. The Supreme Court might be asked, fairly soon, if anti-LGBT discrimination in the workplace is already prohibited as a form of sex discrimination. I’m pretty sure his DOJ is not going to advance that idea in front of the court. (He might personally believe it, to the extent that he believes anything, but the fossil he finds to be his AG won’t.)

Large scale deportations.

Depends on where they find the money. The deficit hawks might just rejigger the numbers and claim Obama’s record as their success.

Cancelling provisions of the ACA without any action regarding those dropped from coverage.

20% no action (I think the lunatics, not just Trump, might really drive that bus off the cliff), 79% crappy action, 1% good action.

Discouragement of action regarding global temperature changes that significantly impact the general effort to alter their rates.

100%. On the first day, at noon.

Implementing a federal abortion ban.

Maybe 20%. He won’t immediately have the ability to get that kind of majority on the court. I think a repeal or major reduction in Roe rights is more likely, maybe 40%. Herding all the various strains of right-wing justices into going along with an actual federal ban would be harder. There seems to be unanimity in right-wing legal circles that Roe is terrible, but a portion of them would also find a federal ban terrible. (And who knows, maybe John Roberts would crack under the pressure to overturn Roe too.)

Fulfilling campaign threats to silence, sue, or censor past critics.

Maybe 10%? Not sure about this, but I’m pretty sure he’s all about the shiny object in front of him. Yesterday’s critic was yesterday’s toy.

Supreme Court justices who will advance any or most of the above.

100%, with his first appointment.

13

What will he try to do is different than what he can do even with a GOP Congress and conservative but still not completely idiotic court.

Irresponsible use of nuclear weapons, over which he has sole authority.
Nonzero unfortunately but still close.

Abolishment of major government agencies, including the FDA, EPA, DoE, etc.
Can’t be done unilaterally and even a GOP Congress does not really want to abolish them. Diminish and defund to large degrees yes.

Defaulting on, or demanding a haircut on, national debt.
Threaten it, which is part of what will trigger international economic turmoil. (Glad to see I may have time to disinvest more gradually and rationally.)

Refusal to honor treaties unless payment is made.
**Huge risk. Hell likelihood even if payments are made. Russia will make major incursions starting smallish and then bigger as Trump proves that he will do nothing under any circumstance. NATO without the US is screwed but at some point will hit the threshold that they have to try to respond. Likewise for China in their sphere of influence. This could be, likely will be, very very bad. ** (I very much hope to be as wrong about this as I was about who would turnout and what direction the LV screen miss would be.)

Encouraging religious discrimination against Muslims and LGBT people through policy and Cabinet appointments.
Near 100%

Large scale deportations.
Congress understands how impossible it is to implement on a large scale. But attempting to do so at huge costs both human and to our economy.

Cancelling provisions of the ACA without any action regarding those dropped from coverage.
50%. A GOP Congress may still try to make something they call theirs that does something.

Discouragement of action regarding global temperature changes that significantly impact the general effort to alter their rates.
100%. Our planet is so screwed.

Implementing a federal abortion ban.
Duh.

Fulfilling campaign threats to silence, sue, or censor past critics.
Attempt yes but our country really is designed to limit that ability. Even Nixon, smarter than Trump by far, could not accomplish it

Supreme Court justices who will advance any or most of the above.
Oh yeah.