Bricker,
Here’s a simple model from what I remember back in my chess playing days. This might not be entirely accurate and I welcome corrections, but hopefully it serves to answer your question
Let’s say you come into a tournament unrated. For the first ten matches they’ll rate you using an initial simple computation which then produces your provisional rating.
If you win against someone, you get a score of 400 above his rating.
If you lose against someone, you get a score of 400 below his rating.
If you tie, you get exactly their rating.
So say you enter an 8 round tournament and win matches against opponents with established ratings of: 1267, 1375, 1589, and 1601
You lose matches against opponents with established ratings of: 1567, 1703, 1476, and 1698
You’ll end the tournament with a provisional rating of 1534.5. Notice that after the first four rounds, your rating was at 1858. Provisional ratings swing about more wildly than a blind samurai.
It’s also a general flaw with provisional ratings: they’re not always entirely accurate. Imagine you’re unrated and play in a tournament full of players with ratings of 2200 and above. No matter how badly you do, even if you forget what color the queen should start on or what the “horsey” does, you’re going to come out of the tournament with a pretty respectible rating of at least 1800, maybe more.
But if you play in a tournament with all different skill levels, the provisional rating will do a pretty good job of narrowing down the window to your true rating. Then what?
Well now it switches over to a 32 point scale and the number of points you can win or lose is determined by the ranking of your opponent. You’ll never win or lose more than 32 however.
If you’re at 1800 and you win against a 1200 that’s no big deal. You were expected to win. You’re not going to gain more than a handful of points. If you lose, or even tie, however, you’ll lose a considerable amount of points, maybe upwards of 25.
If you and your opponent are both at 1500, then winning gives you 16 points, losing loses 16 points from your rating and ties don’t change anything.
It’s why grandmasters don’t like playing players of a considerably lower skill level. The points they win are negligable (1-2 points), but losing is a huge blow to their overall rating (31-32 points).
Overall, the more you play, the more accurate your rating becomes.