Rate from 1-6 how you think the 1st round QBs will do in their career. They might be a multi-Super Bowl winner hall of famer or they might be a career backup. You decide. 1 is best, 6 is worst.
The order they were picked:
Caleb Williams
Jayden Daniels
Drake Maye
Michael Penix Jr
J.J. McCarthy
Bo Nix
I’ll post my order later.
I would actually rank Penix above Caleb Williams. Not necessarily because of stats, but because of maturity. Caleb has the appearance of becoming the NFL’s Lonzo Ball/Lavar Ball and mental immaturity is often the No. 1 factor in busts being busts.
2/3 Daniels, Maye
4/5/6 Penix, McCarthy, Nix.
I’m much more of a fan of tiers than simple ranks.
Have you listened to Caleb speak? Have you watched his The Pivot interview on YouTube yet? He’s not immature. He’s actually mature beyond his age in my opinion. He’s more comfortable in his own skin than a lot of people my age are. I think this immature/diva/hollywood trope about him is all false narrative. He’s confident, but there’s nothing wrong with being confident.
My rankings (based on right now, not ultimately in their careers):
Caleb
Daniels
Penix
Maye
Nix
J.J. is an incomplete for me just due to his lack of passing experience, and that he’s always been on stacked teams without needing to carry the team to victory himself. He could be great, but he’s the big question mark for me on this list.
He impressed me too. Maybe he was well-prepared to speak in front of cameras, but he came off very mature to me.
And I say this as someone inclined to favor Nix and Penix due to watching them play so much in college (I live in the Pacific Northwest so they were on TV a lot).
I would have them in the same order they were picked, except that McCarthy would swap places with Nix. McCarthy never had to throw against a team that was trying to take away the pass (hell, he barely had to throw at all most of the season). He’s a massive projection. Oh, and I would swap Maye and Daniels. Daniels was sacked a lot on college and I have never heard of a player releasing the ball quicker in the NFL.
So… going into Week 18 of their rookie seasons, where you do have them now? Give them a letter grade as well.
Jayden Daniels GP 16, CMP% 69.4, YDs 3530, TD 25, INT 9, YD/Att 7.54
A+ : Has been spectacular. Was legitimately in the MVP conversation for at least a minute. Will win OROY easily.
Drake Maye GP 12, CMP% 66.8, YDs 2276, TD 15, INT 10, YD/Att 6.75
B : Has been the best player on a really shitty team. Still having all the expected rookie struggles.
Bo Nix GP 16, CMP% 65.1, YDs 3454, TD 25, INT 12, YD/Att 6.42
B- : Has been solid. Has his team still alive going into the last week of the season.
Caleb Williams GP 16, CMP% 61.9, YDs 3393, TD 19, INT 6, YD/Att 6.37
C+ : Wanted to give him a better grade and higher ranking but the Bears are a shitshow and the future is a big question mark. But that’s not his fault. What is his fault is holding the ball way too long and playing a lot of hero ball. That’s great if your on-script game is solid, but right now, it’s not. The talent is clearly there, but he needs a lot of NFL coaching up, certainly a lot more than was expected.
Michael Penix Jr. GP 4, CMP% 59.7, YDs 463, TD 1, INT 2, YD/Att 6.91
B- : He’s been solid in his garbage time snaps and his two starts. Shredded a bad Giants defense then had a couple of nice drives in the Commanders game, especially that game-tying score at the end. Would probably be higher if he’d played more.
J.J. McCarthy GP 0
INC : Has been on IR all season.
I can’t argue with any of your grades, though I haven’t watched Drake Maye play in the NFL so I have no real opinion about that one. All of the others seem fine. And yeah, Jayden Daniels, if he’s not having some kind of rookie luck magic or something, he seems like the one true legitimate standout in that class.
I can’t argue with that.
I was impressed with Penix in college but watching him against the Giants I can’t help but think his slow release is going to hurt him in the future only DBs get a chance to study him.
I loved Nix in college. I’m not ready to put him in the hall of fame but I think he will remain a solid starter.
I’m still not sold on Caleb. He has skills but I don’t trust his head.
Maye is not going to be the next Brady but he is solid. Let’s see what kind of help he gets with their high draft pick.
Daniels is very fun to watch. Definitely the best of the bunch. He looks so skinny out there next to monsters on the field. I can’t help but think he’s going to be the next RGIII. After a couple of years of being crunched let’s hope he’s still just as good.
No!!! AAAAH! I’ve heard people make that comparison too, but I don’t want to do that to the poor kid! He could have such a bright future!
(Just don’t let him do any video game or magazine covers any time soon! Curses are real!)
There is a reason why they go for certain body types.
If you’re giving Maye a pass for being on a shit team, you have to give Nix one as well. The 2023 Broncos were legitimately terrible and mostly lost talent in the off-season. I wasn’t high on Nix coming out but he has been legitimately spectacular. One stat you left out - Daniels has been sacked 44 times, while Nix has only taken 24. Some of that is down to the Broncos’ offensive line improving in pass pro, but considering they didn’t add any talent in the off-season, Nix has to get some credit for that too.
Daniels is the OROTY if it’s a QB (Bowers and Bucky Irving have a shot), but Nix is not far off.