NFL draft 2024!

The Game Room
1

We’re just a few days away from the 2024 NFL draft. As with every year, I’m excited to see how the draft will play out. Who will get horribly over-drafted (JJ McCarthy/Drake Maye). Who will fall and provide great value (Jackson Powers Johnson?). And which team will decide to trade up to get the guy they’re absolutely sure will be the cornerstone of their franchise (Vikings? Giants? Hopefully the Broncos?) The only thing I know for sure is that I will be right about some guys/teams, I will be wrong about some guys/teams, and the Raiders will find a way to make everyone point and laugh at them.

As I said in the other off-season thread, the NFL draft is an amazing example of the hubris/arrogance/willful stupidity of a teams’ GM, Owner, and coaches. So many teams are convinced that they’re so effin’ good at their jobs that they don’t have to pay attention to stuff like statistical studies, analytics, and finding efficiencies in the market. Instead, they’ll sacrifice value and a tiered drafting structure to trade up for their guys. I, personally, enjoy watching it happen and not work over and over and over. Every GM remembers the one time it did work, but they also ignore the majority of times it doesn’t. If you’re interested in this topic, I can suggest this paper

A question of increasing interest to researchers in a variety of fields is whether the incentives and experience present in many “real world” settings mitigate judgment and decision-making biases. To investigate this question, we analyze the decision making of National Football League teams during their annual player draft. This is a domain in which incentives are exceedingly high and the opportunities for learning rich. It is also a domain in which multiple psychological factors suggest teams may overvalue the “right to choose” in the draft – non-regressive predictions, overconfidence, the winner’s curse and false consensus all suggest a bias in this direction. Using archival data on draft-day trades, player performance and compensation, we compare the market value of draft picks with the historical value of drafted players. We find that top draft picks are overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets and consistent with psychological research

But they do have two things that us draftniks with hyper-inflated egos don’t: up to date medical information and a much better handle on the personality of the players. So much of the difference between a great pick and a bad pick is dependent on a player’s health, and whether the guy has the mental makeup to take coaching/put in the work/dedication to better themselves every day. That kind of stuff is very difficult for us outsiders to make determinations about, but the good teams will have that information too.

With all that said, I fall into the same trap as them. I, like everyone else interested in the NFL draft, have “my guys” that I would love to see the Packers draft, and “your guys” who I think will bust. But so much of my determination of “my guys” is dependent on where they are go in the draft/what value they have. For example, a developmental player like Tyler Guyton would be a “your guy” in the first round, but easily a “my guy” in the late second/early third round. And yes, I realize Penix won’t fall to the 3rd round.

And, as a bit of bragging, here’s how I think I did on my 2020 “my guys” list:

Hits: Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs, Brandon Aiyuk, Antoine Winfield, Jr., Jonah Jackson, Geno Stone, Logan Wilson, Alex Highsmith, Antonio Gibson,

Misses: Isaiah Simpson, Marlon Davidson, Tyler Johnson, Jalen Hurts.

Once caveat before I continue to bore you to death: my “My Guy” list this year has a ton of medical red flags. Latu, DeJean, and Wilson all come with huge injury concerns. Seeing as how I have little insight into the medical stuff, it just makes my guesses more difficult to make. Which will in no way stop me from making them.

Without further ado, here we go:

MY GUYS

1st

Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA

C Jackson Powers Johnson, IOL, Oregon

2nd

Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa

Payton Wilson, ILB, NC State

3rd

Michael Penix, QB, Washington

Brandon Fiske, DT, Florida State

Kiran Amegadjie, OT, Yale

Mike Sainristil, DB, Michigan

4th

Blake Fisher, OT, Notre Dame

Michael Pratt, QB, Tulane

5th

Tommy Eichenberg, ILB, Ohio State

Gabriel Murphy, Edge, UCLA

6th

Khristian Boyd, DT, Northern Iowa

Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy

7th

Walter Rouse, OT, Oklahoma

Nehemiah Pritchett, CB, Auburn

YOUR GUYS

Drake Maye

Chop Robinson

JJ McCarthy

Adonai Mitchell

Kingsley Suamataia

Xavier Worthy

T’Vondre Sweat

And, just because it amuses the hell out me, here are the best names of the 2024 NFL draft:

Storm Duck, CB, Louisville

McCallan Castles, TE, Tennessee

Colson Yankoff, RB, UCLA

Kool Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri

Steele Chambers, LB, Ohio State

Andrew Coker, OT, TCU

Myles Harden, CB, South Dakota

Carson Steele, RB, UCLA

Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, WR, Georgia

Jesus Gibbs, DL, Towson

That’s enough from me for now. I’ll likely post more about individual players/Packers needs/self-congratulatory bulls***, but I’ve likely sent you all into a coma by now anyway.

Who are your “My Guys”? How can the Bears screw up having 2 top 10 picks? Who do you really want to see in your teams’ jersey in the fall? Let’s hear from you!

2

I love your annual draft post because of the names you pull out, and this seriously may be the best one of all time.

I am praying this guy makes it onto a team…

3

Its up there with Bumper Pool, Joey Magnifico, and Drew Sample.

4

So, totally not an NFL guy, is this list (my guys, your guys) supposed to be steals/busts at the level they are drafted? So, if a particular player is a projected mid-first-rounder and actually works out that way, he’s not on the list? Latu is a 10-20 on most mocks, but should be a top 5, so the team that gets him “stole one”.

So being a unabashed homer for FSU, Jared Verse is predicted by most to go in the 15-25 range. If he turns out to be a really solid NFL edge rusher, that’s where he should have gone and his value matches the pick value, so some team did good but not great?

Or are you just saying that out of 32 first round picks your 2 will do well and everybody else will either suck completely or be looked at as over-valued at their pick?

ETA: I do love the “best names of the draft” list.

5

Yep, my guys are much more value based. Latu, because of health issues and average physical testing, may fall into the 20s, and he would be a good pick there.

6

Definitely a “your guy.” Jump to 1:37 for the bad.

And another.

And finally, it will be hilarious if the Raiders pick this guy as their savior.

7

Some of my player projections. Will pepper these in position by position as time allows the next couple days.

Starting with QBs.

Caleb Williams
I’m completely incapable of being remotely objective here. I’m simultaneously chugging the kool-aid and projecting gloom and doom for the hapless Bears. That said, I’ve consumed practically every shred of content about him and watched a shit ton of video breakdowns. And I’ve predictably settled into the opinion that he’s going to be the next Aaron Rodgers with a sprinkling of Mahomes. So, you know, totally measured and fair. The Bears could screw him up I suppose, but I think the talent overpowers the malaise.

Drake Maye
He’s the only other QB in this draft that I like. Taking him in the top 3 is probably too high, but you know, he’s a QB so it is what it is. I wouldn’t sell the farm to trade up and get him but I’d happily take him if I were the Commies or Pats. The popular comp is Justin Herbert, but I think that’s a little generous. He’s not the physical specimen that Josh Allen is. On the high side, I think Joe Burrow is probably the closest physical comp but he’s not nearly as efficient (who is?). I think a realistic projection is probably more Jay Cutler, which isn’t great, but not a bust. Unfortunately, he’s likely to land in a dismal situation so those bad habits aren’t likely to get ironed out in year one. I’m generally not a fan of sitting a QB but New England might be best served to take that route.

Jayden Daniels
This one is easy. He’s Justin Fields with RG3’s frame, both the good and the bad. All his tape is fun but almost none of it resembles anything you might see in an NFL game. NFL defenses will put him into a blender and he’s going to miss a ton of games. Gonna be rough times in Washington.

JJ McCarthy
I haven’t seen anything at all that excites me about him. The only possible exception is that he’s an unfinished project, so I suppose there’s room to mold him into something amazing. But that would be an article of faith. Had he not won a National Title and had Harbaugh hyping him like a sociopath, he’d probably be in the 2nd/3rd round conversation which would have been entirely appropriate. He might sit and eventually become a winner but trading up to the top 5 for a project is nutty. A low-end comp which feels fair, Matt Leinart. A more generous comp is probably Jared Goff but Goff was a much more productive passer in college and way, way more accurate. If I had to pick one comp for where I think he ends up, its Derek Carr.

Michael Penix
Old, injured and a guy regularly bailed out by some amazing WRs. The advanced stats are not good at all, and he really struggles over the middle of the field. You can’t make a living in the NFL lobbing it into coverage down the sidelines. He probably should be a 3rd/4th round prospect but will probably be a late 1st rounder. Even as a 3rd rounder, I wouldn’t waste my time, there’s no upside there. The player comp that is the best-case scenario is probably Tua, he has the injury history and can succeed with elite pass catchers. But I wouldn’t hitch my wagon to him to lead my franchise. Another interesting comp is Jalen Hurts (the passer only, not the runner) where he’s solid throwing to the boundary but inconsistent over the middle of the field. I’m struggling to think of a great worst-case scenario for him. I think his floor is on the higher side and we don’t see a lot of guys of his type.

Bo Nix
He’s kind of an interesting Rorschach test for draft scouting. His production is really impressive, and he looks the part. If you really value production and efficiency on tape, Nix should be a guy to like. But when you get into the details and the wonkier pre-draft stuff, it gets kind of ugly fast. He played in a really gimmicky system and there’s very little NFL-style concepts on display. His footwork sucks and he doesn’t react to pressure very well. Comping him takes you back to the Air Raid days but he’s more physically gifted. The absolute best-case scenario for him is a bigger Drew Brees, and I kind of want to see him play for Sean Payton just to prove the case. But Brees is a one of one. Gardner Minshew is an interesting comp because of the system, but Nix isn’t a gun slinger at all. Brandon Weeden seems like a good worst case scenario, and that’s not just a dig on his age.

As usual it really sucks to be a team searching for a passer, you have to roll the dice with someone and odds are only one of these guys will amount to anything.

8

There is plenty of discussion here in local Boston media that the Patriots have been “hinting” they want to trade down to collect draft capital. Tea-leaf reading commentators suggest they are not sold on taking Maye at 3. They suggest the Patriots would trade 3 to the Vikings for their two 1st-round selections and maybe try to get J.J. McCarthy with pick 11.

I don’t know enough to say whether this is a good idea, except that McCarthy seems to me a bit like Mac Jones v.2, which is not at all inspiring. But the Pats have a TON of needs on offense, so acquiring more picks is wise, particularly in this draft class, which everyone says is loaded with good prospects on offense.

9

I wonder how much of this, consciously or unconsciously, is Brady’s legacy. There were similar concerns about Brady coming out of college: success in a run-heavy offense, no arm, not very athletic. Now the Pats see another QB coming out of Michigan being devalued - it’s gotta be the same outcome, right?

10

So, the awful Hawks do have a phenom in Connor Badard. They also have a very high draft pick this year. So, as much as one really good player could help, what kind of player do they draft? Someone to play with him, or someone to create a second line threat so opponents can’t concentrate their best defenders on just Badard?

11

Thanks. I’m now pucturing the Blackhawks drafting JJ McCarthy (who actually played hockey as a kid). And maybe Joe Alt to play goalie.

12

Maybe this is a better question for an NHL draft thread?

(I say either way it is a benefit for the Hawks, either create an unstoppable line, or spread the talent out so the defense can’t just concentrate on the top line)

13

I don’t think either comparison really works. JJ is physically way more gifted than either player. Mac Jones’ ceiling should always have been effective game manager if he has elite weapons. Brady was really tall and lanky and could not move at all. JJ has a much better arm and is way more mobile and athletic than both guys. I can understand getting excited about his upside, but the issue is that he hasn’t really put much tape out there (he played plenty but wasn’t asked to carry the offense). That said, New England bringing in another Michigan man would certainly get everyone’s spidey sense going.

14

It’s a rare time when you and I agree, but Cutler was my comp for Maye too. And I agree, Maye needs some time to work on his game. His struggles with pressure, questionable decisionmaking, inconsistency, and the level of competition scream that he’d be better served sitting for awhile. But with the right coach/good roster, he could become Jay Cutler.

I love teams that feel they need to “roll the dice”. I REALLY love the teams that tell themselves they need to pay a huge premium to “roll the dice”.

One of the biggest jobs a GM needs to do is to try and make sure they never get in a position of having to “roll the dice”.

15

And his off the field life will be even better. Nobel Prizes in four disciplines, Doctorates of Arts and Science, he’ll get the rival cartel gangs to agree to leave town, wipes out crime and drug running in the city and is probably going to be elected to the Big Office down at City Hall after the 35 year NFL career. Yep, just imagine: Mayor of Jacksonville.

…where the Bears will send him after trading for some ‘magic beans’ or some shit.

16

Quick run down of the WR position. Won’t be as thorough as the QBs for obvious reasons and I probably won’t try to think of a comp for all of them. More of a stream of consciousness this time around.

First off, this is an amazing WR class. Some people have said it’s top heavy and that after the big three it’s a crap shoot. I disagree, some of these second-tier guys would be top 5 picks in other drafts and I think we might see 6-8 guys from this class making Pro Bowls.

Marvin Harrison Jr.
Much like Caleb, MHJ had an all-world 2022 campaign. Both guys, had they been eligible, would have been considered two of the greatest prospects to ever enter the league had they been in last year’s draft. They almost certainly would have gone 1-2. In 2023 they took a slight step back, but that had more to do with circumstances and perception than anything else.

Some pundits have tried making a case for Nabers over MHJ. Those people are fucking insane hot take artists. MHJ is as unimpeachable an WR candidate as I have ever seen. He’s not quite the physical specimen that Calvin Johnson was but he’s more polished and more accomplished. He’s better than Julio Jones in just about every category, not by a lot, but he edges him out in every trait. People have comped him to AJ Green, but honestly, AJ Green can’t carry his jock. And AJ Green was amazing before he was hurt. Quite simply, this is the best WR prospect I have ever seen. If he’s not the #1 WR in the league by year 3 I’ll be absolutely floored. If the Bears decide to burn some future draft capital to pull a Texans and grab him in the top 5 this year I’ll actually be thrilled about it, he’s that good.

Malik Nabers
Even though he’s not in the same class as MHJ, he’s still an awesome prospect. I do think there’s a small chance he could bust like any WR who makes most of his hay after the catch. It will be interesting to see how Nabers adapts to an NFL offense. He’ll figure out how to get open and if you manufacture touches he’ll move the chains, but can he excel in a complicated offense with a lot of option routes? That’s less certain. He’s a player you build a scheme around, not a player who you slot into a scheme, sort of like Tyreke. But he’s good enough to carry an offense. I see him as a slightly more dynamic DJ Moore which is pretty damn good.

Rome Odunze
Usually when there are 3 or 4 prospects at the same position graded similarly, people will tend to have a favorite and a guy they don’t like. I think this is just the nature of punditry. That’s not the case here, I think all three of these guys will be game changers right away. Odunze doesn’t have the physical traits of the first two guys, and that’s why he’s a close third, but he’s incredibly polished. Certainly a more complete pass catcher than Nabers and bigger. He really made Penix look like an elite QB prospect (pity the team that trots him out there without WRs like the Huskies had).

A popular comp for him is Larry Fitzgerald. I think that’s a decent comp, but stylistically that doesn’t quite jibe for me. DaVante Adams is another one and I think that’s a better comp, but Adams is a long stider, where Rome doesn’t stretch the field as much. I’ve heard Allen Robinson but I think Rome is better in most respects. I’ve also heard Mike Evans which feels right, and Mike Evans is a guy that always left me wanting a little and I think physically Rome might be just shy of elite. If Rome adds bulk he might be Brandon Marshall with better intangibles which would be awesome.

Adonai Mitchell
This is the first guy I’m out on. When I watch his tape and read weaknesses there’s a couple names that bubble up. Darrius Heyward-Bey and Chase Claypool. While that’s probably overly critical, and there’s only one shit-stain of Claypool’s level, there’s some common traits. He not a natural hands catcher and his effort when he’s out of the play is suspect. He has all the physical attributes to be great, but I don’t think he has the desire, and he doesn’t really seem to know how to play the position yet. I’d probably roll the dice with him in the 40s or 50s but if he’s the 4th guy off the board in the teens that’s not for me.

Brian Thomas Jr
I LOVE this cat. When I was watching LSU games he actually popped for me more often than Nabers. He’s terrifying when he’s going deep up the seam. He doesn’t have Nabers strength and run-after-catch ability, but when it comes to getting open and stressing the safeties he’s special. I know this is kind of absurd but the guy he reminds me of is Justin Jefferson. If he ends up being the 6th or 7th WR off the board, some team is getting a steal. If he makes it to the Chiefs at 32…watch out.

Xavier Worthy
I think it’s safe to say that I’m not a believer in either of the Texas WRs in this draft. Worthy set the Combine record for 40 time. But when I watch his tape, the one thing you see happen over and over…him getting tackled from behind. He finished the year with just 5 TDs and this is the primary reason why. He’s really undersized and doesn’t play with any physicality, he has tiny hands and will get mauled at the line in press coverage. People have compared him to Tank Dell, but other than their weight they don’t have much in common. A better comp is probably John Ross.

Keon Coleman
This guy is one of my zags. The general consensus I think has him as a middling prospect and he might still be on the board towards the second half of the 2nd round. But I really like him, I think he’s just a dog. He’s never really had a great QB throwing to him, it’s really held back his production. He doesn’t have a lot of good film out there where he’s running sophisticated routes or splitting zones and that’s just a product of the system. I view him as store brand Odunze. The knock on him is speed, he didn’t run great and doesn’t stack coverage, but he’s unbelievable at contested catches. He just has a nose for the ball and feasts in the red zone. He’s also just 20 years old so he’s got a lot of room to develop. I think he could be Alshon Jeffery as a pro.

Malachi Corley
This guy is Deebo Samuel. Full stop. An absolute problem for DBs to tackle. Not super polished as a route runner but when he’s running with the ball he leaves carnage behind him. Obviously I haven’t watched a lot of WKU tape, but this guy’s highlight reel is like meat head football porn. He’d be Dan Campbell favorite player ever. I don’t know when he’ll get drafted but if he’s there at the top of the third you have to go get him.

Javon Baker
A mid-round gem. Awesome route runner and really knows how to get off the line against man coverage. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a WR1, but this guy can absolutely be a move the chains guy. He can line up on the outside and win fast.

Devontez Walker
Caught (and dropped) a bunch of balls from Maye. Seems like the only route he knows how to run in the go. But it’s his one trick and he’s pretty decent at it. He has the size and speed to run away from players and gets off press man consistently. Player comp is easy, Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Jermaine Burton
Seems like a terrible human, but he the rare guy who measures pretty fast but then seems to play even faster in pads. But he’s not physical and his effort is questionable. I don’t think he’s going to handle adversity in the NFL well at all. 4th round player with 1st round diva attitude. But if he lands on the Chiefs or Dolphins I could see him having some nice games, but inconsistent.

Xavier Legette
He’s a tough one to judge. He’s a converted QB. He was really productive in his 5th year (i.e. he’s older) but he lacks polish. When I watch his highlights, I see shades of AJ Brown and he’s really great at winning the ball and going up to get it. He’s got excellent size and speed (though he measured shorter than predicted) but when he faced better corners he sometimes struggled to separate. He’s kind of raw.

Obviously a lot of other WRs that are interesting, I haven’t checked them all out. But in general, this class is really exciting.

17

Feel free to ignore, but I wanted to take a look at the draft from a purely Packers point of view. The Packers are in a pretty good spot, with a playoff appearance last year and the NFL’s youngest roster. They apparently have their franchise QB, they have a ton of young talent, and they’re in a pretty good spot on their needs. The defense remains a work in progress, but the Packers have spent a ton of draft resources on defense with not very much to show for it. The Packers need Quay Walker, Devontae Wyatt, Luke Van Ness, and Eric Stokes live up to their draft pedigree and become difference makers for this defense to really improve. The Packers have switched (as much as any NFL team can be defined by their base defense) to a 4-3 defense, which may put a bit of stress on the OLB pass rushers to set the edge against the run. But I’m excited to see what Jeff Hafley, their new DC, can do with this young roster.

The most obvious holes that the Packers need to fill are O line, a second CB opposite Jaire Alexander (get your shit together Eric Stokes), a box safety to match with free agent Xavier McKinney, and interior linebackers. Their secondary/positions I’d like addressed, are backup QB, RB, and DE/DT. I know I just listed pretty much every position on the roster, but in all honesty, the Packers have a pretty good roster. Depth, and game changers, are what they need.

Luckily, the Packers have 5 picks in the top 100, and 11 overall, so they have the draft resources to do a ton of moving. And I get the feeling that, this year, Gutekunst is looking much more for playmakers than depth. So I anticipate a fair amount of moving up this year. Which is always troubling to me. But, hopefully, the Packers will continue to build their roster.

And, while I’m thoroughly convinced no one will read/care, I’m going to point out what I would like to dee happen in this draft for the Packers.

First Round

My most dearest wish is that one of the top 5 OTs on the board (Alt, Fuaga, Fautanu, Fashanu, or Latham) fall to the Packers at #25. With teams reaching for QBs, I hold out hope on of them will fall, but I kinda doubt it. I’m still on the fence if I would add Graham Barton, OT, Duke to that list as mandatory pick at 25, but I think I’m on board with him at 25. If none of those OTs fall, I’m on board with grabbing a DB, either Cooper DeJean, Nate Wiggins, or McKinstrey.

I really don’t think the Packers need to trade up to secure a great roster addition at 25, but it is close. And they do have the draft capital to make something happen. As long as they avoid reaching for project guys like Mims, Guyton, and Morgan, I’m on board.

Second Round

The Packers have two picks in the second round, and I’m really happy with the level of talent available there, so I really don’t want to Packers to waste a 2nd rounder to trade up. The first Packer pick in the second round should be either an OT or DB, depending which need wasn’t filled at #25. I’d love Barton at 41, but I doubt he’ll last. I’m really hoping teams really like guys I hate like Worthy, Robinson, Nix, Penix enough to make some talent fall to the Packers. Give me a late first round talent at #41, and I’ll be happy.

I’ve earmarked the second, second round pick as the LB position. The Packers are sorely in need of ILBs, a position they’ve ignored for over a decade now. The problem is there isn’t a ton of ILB talent in this draft. Payton Wilson is my dream pick here, and maybe his medical issues will allow him to fall here, but I doubt it. I’d settle for Edgerrin Cooper or Junior Colson. But I do really want a second round pick used on a linebacker here.

Third Round

The Pack have two late third round picks (88 and 91), but, once again, I like the talent available here. These are picks the Packers need to hit on to really build their roster. I’m eyeing guys like Kiran Amegadijae, Blake Fisher, and Dominick Puni here to find an O line starter with some versatility. But I’m also on board with a swing for the fences by going off my “build the lines and DBs” plan to grab a RB or backup QB here. Some names I’d love are Jonathon Brooks, Jaylin Wright, or even Spencer Rattler or Michael Pratt. But I also think this is the ideal spot for the Packers to grab a box safety. Tyler Nubin will likely be gone, but I’d love Javon Bullard, Jaden Hicks, or Cole Bishop.

The Rest

Just fill in the roster. I’ve previously listed my “my guys” so grab any of them still around. But I woud love it if the Packers used these picks to double dip at the positions of need if they drafted a playmaker with some red flags. So if they drafted Payton Wilson, get Tommy Eichenberg. If you drafted Cooper DeJean, grab a Khyree Jackson or Renardo Green. I loved how the Packers double dipped at positions before (Musgrave/Kraft, Reed/Wicks, Jones/JWill), and they have the resources to do it again. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: the more picks, the better your chances at finding starters).

And, as I’ve said before, ALWAYS DRAFT A QB. I’m not sold on Sean Clifford as anything but the answer to the question Who did the Packers draft to backup Jordan Love. So somewhere on day 3, the Packers need to draft a backup QB (Pratt, Jordan Travis, Sam Hartman if you’re desperate). They also need to draft backup RBs, and, thanks to the devaluation of the position, they may be able to grab a starting caliber RB later. Personally, I like Isaac Guerendo, Tyrone Tracy, and/or Kimani Vidal.

So there you have it. The ramblings of an over-tired Packer fan. Do with it as you will.

And let me know your thoughts on your teams’ needs/desires. The more you know…

18

These WRs always trouble me. I’d like to see the stats where the games against lower tier teams are filtered out (the schedule fillers). In many of the games, the opposition is just outclassed - you see some guys running wide open for TD after TD (ain’t gonna happen in the NFL). I wonder if there’s a DIVA stat based on social media output?

Who’s this year’s Puka Nacua (5th rounder from BYU)? 105 receptions, 1,486 yds, 14.2 avg. and 4.57 sec dash!!!

19

When it comes to scouting college WRs (and almost any position really) I almost completely ignore season and career stat totals. I watch as much film as I can find from the big rivalry games or games against ranked opponents. There are so many people on YouTube and other platforms doing cut ups for these players it’s easy to watch all a player’s snaps from a given game. I look way more at individual plays looking for effort, technique, burst and ball skills than I do aggregate results. It’s not just games against bad competition that screw up the analysis, it’s often completely boneheaded coaching and usage. Keon Coleman for example was running the stupidest and most useless routes on 90% of plays.

20

There were 4 1st round WRs and 4 2nd round WRs last year. There might be 8 WRs in the 1st round alone this year.

I don’t think any of these guys will be there in the 5th round, but if there’s a under the radar guy who might unexpectedly dominate as a rookie, I’d say Malachi Corley is a good candidate. There’s some buzz, so the WKU prospect might end up as a 2nd rounder which sort of spoils the comp. Another interesting later pick is Ja’Lynn Polk from Washington. He’s the 3rd guy in that loaded Washington WR room and I would not be shocked if he slid to the 4th or 5th round and way outperformed expectations. Dude can ball. Brendan Rice is interesting, but I don’t know if I see Jerry Rice’s kid still on the board in the 4th round. I already talked about Javon Baker above, if he slips to the 4th round he’s my #1 candidate for a Puka-like rookie campaign.

But if you want a deep sleeper, a guy that might be there in the 6th round, Jalen Coker of Holy Cross. When Steve Smith calls out as a guy who can play, you’re know you are in the right place. He might be the most “Puka” of these guys.