Unlike the first go-around in 2017 where it was clear that the Trump campaign had no real plan (and despite claims, no expectation of winning), there is a concerted effort to turn the nation directly into the wave of neo-fascism for a 2024 electoral success. And it isn’t just “non-white-rich-cis-male people” that need to be concerned the next time around; anyone who opposes this agenda will be in the crosshairs. The persecution of Cindy McCain for the ‘sin’ of being the widow of a not-sufficently-Trumpy-Republican, or the undermining of Liz Cheney (who is a ‘Conservative’s Conservative’ but not a MAGA troll) should make it clear that being straight, white, and traditionally Republican is not sufficient coverage to deflect attack, much less if you fall outside of that domain. And yes, even if Trump takes the Big Dump Into The Celestial Toilet Bowl, there are people taking notes and divining the path toward authoritarianism.
This is exactly what the people saying he couldn’t possibly win in 2016 were saying. (And in full disclosure, what I was personally thinking even as a fretted over what a ‘surprise’ win against an unappealing candidate like Hillary Clinton could be). People underestimate Trump because he is not a smart leader, but frankly a critical review of American presidents reveals that many of them were not particularly intelligent or adept, and yet managed to be elected to office and substantially fuck things up. Trump is among the worst, but he’s not completely unique.
With an executive branch in the clutches of a Trump cabinet, the judiciary hobbled and undercut, and a legislative branch brought to inaction through internecine conflict, it is easy to imagine an effective takeover of the government by anti-democratic influences. It has actually happened before and resulted in civil war, except it is far easier now to influence public opinion and control political influence with a campaign of concerted influence.
Honestly, after the last go-round, I think most other countries would spend four years pulling themselves as far out of the US orbit as they can. If Trump wins again, it’s not just Trump we won’t be able to trust - it’s the US electorate, and the US system in its entirety.
We in Canada will be completely screwed, of course, because of our unique proximity to the US, but everyone else will do whatever they can to build an economic wall around the cesspool that the US will become. They’ll feel bad for us Canucks as they do it, but pragmatically, there will be little they can do for us.
…and they’ll take advantage of Trump dropping dead to further their agenda. No matter how he dies, they’ll claim it was an assassination by a nation-wide conspiracy of Antifa Homosexual Transgender Socialist Nazis, and use it as an excuse to throw a lot of people in jail.
I think when a person and his supporters commit in writing and public speech that they will imprison their political opponents, shut down unfriendly media, remove personally disloyal bureaucrats and weaponize the military to remain in office after their term expires, we ought to believe that they will make the attempt to do all those things.
If they believe they have the power to ignore norms and the law, norms and the law won’t stop them.
I’m with you on a lot of what you say, but I’m not sure I’m with you on this one.
Trump seems to have a unique ability to be Trump. Meaning, every time someone (like DeSantis, Cruz) tries to act like Trump it backfires. It’s his (Trump’s) one genuine skill- that he can say and do anything no matter how foolish, how stupid, literally shoot someone on 5th Avenue, and it’s fine.
I haven’t yet seen an acolyte who can pull this off.
When watching Star Wars TV shows, like Rebels, I always wonder at what point do the rebels start shooting at the Stormtroopers? Because, it seems to me, that’s a pretty big move, a point of no return.
I imagine if Trump gets re-elected, and he does try to implement the round-ups and punishing of political opponents and halting of elections, we may find ourselves wondering the same thing, but in real life.
Generally this never happens, for good or for bad. People can’t be copied that way. I don’t care who’s taking notes. It doesn’t work.
Maybe someone will get ideas. And on the good side they can get them too. But to put those ideas into action you need to create a whole new dynamic person. Not just follow some playbook that Trump has somehow stumbled upon.
With all that he has said and done, a Trump victory would be a devastating condemnation of the intelligence and ethical worth of this nation’s voters. I believe it would lead to the end of our democracy. It’s happened a number of times in history, most notably perhaps in Germany and Rome.
The NDAA prohibits the U.S. from withdrawing from NATO without 2/3 of the Senate approval (or both a majority in the Senate, House, and presidential signature,) so that is not likely. And as for selling American weapons to Russia…c’mon…
Once Trump was normalized as 2016 GOP nominee, his absolute floor as far as percentage of vote was 45%. Trump does have some charisma and campaigning skill, so that raised his percentage.
And that’s it. That’s our reality. People are what they are. Really I don’t think they are any different than at any time in history. Remember we do have all of this history of slavery and racism and stuff. The people are what they are, they aren’t a lot smarter or dumber now than they ever were.
At some point we have to accept where we are and the limitations of a particular system. It’s certainly possible that democracy is flawed in some ways, at some moments an elite deciding everything would be better. And the elites still often have an impact anyway, for good or for bad. But these are popular elections, most people don’t think deeply about them and they really never did ever.
The U.S. doesn’t have to formally pull out of NATO to make participation in the alliance a dead letter. If Donald Trump orders the military to stop participating in NATO in any way, is someone in the chain of command going to defy him? And will the threat of impeachment hold Donald Trump to keeping the law faithfully executed in this instance?
(I think the answers are no and no, respectively, btw)
I’m not worried about someone being The New Trump. What I’m worried about is Trump doing enough damage to the institutions and society of the US that someone else will be able to take over, and be their own kind of shitty authoritarian leader. If there’s enough chaos and paranoia out there, it could happen.
You know there are quite a few of those people out there, and they’ll be looking for this chance. Think of Steven Miller, for example.
Exactly, there was never another Sulla (Or Marius if you are one of those), but the damage he did was enough to bring down the republic a generation later.
Joe Biden came in as the former VP to a broadly popular president and (other than the antics of Hunter Biden) not a lot of baggage or conspiranoia that the GOP has been drumming up on Clinton since the late ‘Nineties. He now has to carry an economy which, despite all claims and indicators, is still hurting a lot of the working class voters he needs to court, a lot of Black voters who feel that he and the DNC in general has not really held up their end in representation, nascent conflict with China that has made it apparent the US doesn’t really have a cohesive strategy to deter or prevent, a growing awareness that the system of globalized trade which gives the West access to inexpensive goods made by cheap labor is increasingly strained, and a mostly one-sided brutal war being prosecuted in Gaza which threatens to spread across the Eastern Mediterranean which poses a conundrum for left-leaning voters who don’t share a centrist view that Israel can do no wrong. Biden has had four years of blame, shame, and allegations of decrepitude for the same mumbling manner of speaking that he’s always had.
Meanwhile, although Trump has been under near constant indictment and investigation, and his 6 January MAGA mob has been through the judicial wringer for the insurrection he compelled them to engage in, very little of it has actually stuck, and he has become (as many suspected) the only viable GOP candidate in the 2024 Presidential race. Trump has made a career out of dismissing scandals and controversies, and although a lot of Republican voters and candidates claim that they won’t vote for or endorse him, they seem to have a way of ‘coming around’ when he’s the only viable candidate remaining.
I’m not sure they have to. Trump has shown them that you don’t have to apologize for being a racist, misogynistic would-be autocrat, and there are a lot of MAGA-aligned GOP candidates who have displaced more ‘moderate’ (i.e. conservative but not Trumpy) Republicans, while the GOP overall has been purging its ranks of anyone who won’t offer constant and unwavering fealty to their demi-god, while demeaning or ignoring previous Republican luminaries. They have remade the party in Trump’s image, and even if he dies or incapacitated it will have enough inertia to keep moving on in that direction for some period of time sufficient to do grave harm.
All Trump and/or Congress has to do is to defund or delay contributions and participation in NATO, the same way most of Europe has been doing for the last thirty years. The United States is such a large contributor that a lack of participation would at least damage if not completely undermine the alliance.
The problem is that for a lot of people “fight for justice” is equivalent to voting Trump back into office. Even though he lost the popular vote (both times) he brought out record numbers of voters. By all means, go out and ‘fight’ against Trump, but that may not preserve a government overtaken by dishonest people seeking an autocratic rule if they outnumber everyone else in a highly polarized polity.
Exactly. I don’t understand the thinking of those who claim Trump and his followers are all bark and no bite. If it happens, it will be bad. Not George Bush the Younger bad. Not Ronald Reagan bad. Not even Richard Nixon bad. We’re talking Andrew Jackson bad (or worse).
When Bannon talks of sending shock troops into the bureaucracy to take over he’s just blowing smoke- now. Should he be put in charge of the operation a year from now- say goodbye to career professionals running the bureaucracy. There will be mass firings and the only qualification for having a government job is to sign a loyalty pledge to DJT.
Environmental protections will be history. Any progress in carbon reduction will be negated and we will have drill baby drill as well as burn baby burn.
The free press will no longer exist. Opposition to DJT will be considered sedition and anyone who doesn’t broadcast the official version of the truth will be sent to concentration camps or executed.
The judiciary will be purged of all non-MAGA judges. Others will either be impeached or assassinated.
Abortion will be made illegal in all 50 states from the moment of conception. Birth control will be banned. Gay marriages will be declared null and void. Homosexuality will be criminalized.
Vladimir Putin will retake all of the old Soviet bloc, China will take Taiwan, North Korea will invade the south- all with the blessing of the US.
The border will be defended by machine gunners with orders to kill anyone approaching it.