I’m sort of resigning myself to a Trump win, and trying to stay optimistic about what’s the worst that could happen, and not fall for alarmism.
Domestically, I know he’ll try to fundamentally change things, but how much will the system (courts, congress, etc) be able to withstand his attempts? The system held up the first time, will it hold again? If not, what are some of the worst possibilities that have a real chance of happening?
Internationally, I think the worst that could happen is he minimizes US support for Nato, and Russia invades the Baltic states or more, and Nato is unable to respond militarily without the US.
How realistic is this? I think Congress is trying to pass a law that disallows a POTUS to unilaterally withdraw from Nato, but even without a withdrawal, could the president just reduce engagement with it?
I don’t think Russia would be dumb enough to attack NATO under even the most Putin-friendly of American presidents. But Ukraine would certainly suffer severe setback and pressure, perhaps even losing something like 1/3 of its land.
I think the courts, agencies and Congress will still hold him back from most of his crazy ideas.
Spoken like a white cis male. As a woman in the USA, with a daughter of childbearing age, I do not at all feel that the system “held up” the first time. Nor do I have any sense that life will not get substantially worse for non-white-rich-cis-male people if Trump makes it into the White House again.
You need to read Project 2025 in order to understand just how ready they are to counteract every check, balance, and roadblock that prevented their autocracy the last time.
It’s not just Trump though. If he faceplants into his next cheeseburger another one will take his place. It is the GOP at large, and their redefinition of “conservatism.”
Of course not. It is simply a statement of perspective. The horrors that occurred do not affect you. You were not a woman of childbearing age, so you said nothing bad happened.
A lot. It took more than two terms for Putin to shut down independent media and otherwise consolidate power. And the U.S., with its longer democratic tradition, will be tougher to destroy.
My most immediate concern is an invasion of Mexico. But he might not do it.
Maybe not another pandemic, but Trump may find himself with a war on his hands that his unwillingness to confront will be even more disastrous than his same attitude towards Covid was.
The housing shortage, healthcare unaffordability, dysfunction in the justice system (both civil and criminal), dysfunction in the education system (both higher and lower), wage theft by corporations, debt slavery for the poor and youth, etc. etc. Guaranteed four more years of those cans getting kicked down the road.
Those are the sorts of things we got / I’d expect to get from a bog standard Republican like we got with the Bushes or would likely get with Nikki Haley. I expect with Trump it would be a lot worse than that. We would likely see Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Kentaji Brown Jackson, and John Roberts forcibly removed from the SCOTUS and replaced by younger versions of Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito (and the only reason he’d keep Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett is because he appointed them and wouldn’t want to admit to making a mistake). He’d likely purge the Mark Milley types from the top ranks of the armed forces and replace them with guys like Michael Flynn. He would likely try to have Joe Biden sent to prison without going through the judicial process, for made up crimes, likely resulting in Biden having to flee the country, and with the Obamas and Clintons following them for fear that they could be next. He’d cozy up to foreign leaders that are authoritarian and abandon those that are democratic. He’d talk tough with China, but when push comes to shove he would abandon Taiwan (and possibly South Korea and Japan as well). He’d cut taxes for the wealthy and make up the difference by raising taxes on the upper middle class.
And that’s just the stuff I came up with in a few minutes off the top of head. If I was more imaginative and spent some more time at the task, I could come up with even worse things.
The USA will look exactly like the Philippines. Billions stolen, entire branches of the executive suborned to do nothing but redirect taxpayer dollars towards the President’s family or connected cronies, a total propaganda war on the truth, the wholesale replacement of the federal judiciary with unqualified trumpists, and the same thing happening with even more thoroughness and alacrity in any state the Rs win a large majority in.
The USA will collapse into something worse than current Türkiye within just in weeks. To massive cheering from about 50% of the populace. Who utterly do not understand anything useful about the disaster they’re cheering about.
Which is not to say they’re innocent of wrongdoing. Merely that they are are clueless in the most dangerous of fashions since they have no idea they’re deluded / deceived.
Likely that he would do exactly that? I don’t think so. But is it likely he will take some other outrageously unlawful actions. We just don’t know what in advance.
This illustrates the problem with addressing the thread question. Trump isn’t extreme, by GOP standards, on issues other than immigration. He doesn’t want a nationwide abortion ban, or at least he doesn’t say so as consistently as many other Republicans. He doesn’t want to privatize social security or cut back on Medicare.
Where he is extreme is in his disrespect for democratic norms. He has repeatedly said he will be a dictator on day one, for just one day. We don’t really know what the practical effects of that would be, especially because he lies so frequently.
He has repeatedly said that NBC (and now CNN) should have their licenses revoked, a clear threat to shut down opposition media. Did he make similar threats during his first term and not carry them out? Yes. So I don’t know what he would do given four more years. I just know that the longer an authoritarian want-a-be head of government is in office, the fewer the opposition media outlets.
The worst outcome is that fear keeps those whose job it is to uphold the law, against a lawless administration, from doing their job. Knowing that brave prosecutors and judges are essential when the national leader is an autocrat trying to consolidate power. I found this Georgia situation, where attorneys are refusing to prosecute out of fear, disturbing:
I don’t know exactly what worst outcome Trump will try to achieve. I do know that if journalists and lawyers refuse to challenge a dictatorial administration out of fear, that worst outcome is likely. But if those Georgia attorneys are atypical, we’ll manage.
I don’t know, but I’m really terrified of what is just around the corner.
You are a lot more optimistic than i.
Other things trump might do? Enforce the Comstock act? Round up “illegal aliens” and have them executed? Or maybe some other vulnerable and unpopular minority?
There’s a lot of bad stuff that could happen. I hope we have another election in 5 years.
Cheer up. I don’t see it. Too many sane people still left in this country. The media keep pushing his viability (to line their own pockets), but really, the people know shit when they step in it. They did, wiped it off and moved on. He will not win.
Realistically, we’ll merely slide toward the third world.
Trump will lie, bluster, be lazy, and generally not take positive action to do much of anything. His biggest effect will be to foster a culture where corruption and graft are tolerated, personal loyalty is valued way above competence, everything is simplified and dumbed down, meaning that a lot of what happens won’t do much that’s effective.
The knock-on effect will be that government competence will slide perceptibly, and American confidence in government (already pretty low) will slide further. That will lead to more extralegal behavior, from white-collar financial crimes to an increase in thefts. Since there’s less competent leadership, and the competent workers are disrespected and frustrated, the ability to do anything about this will be less.
Funding for education and the arts will continue to plummet.
There won’t be many, if any, direct attacks on left-wing people, or extrajudicial actions. Just threats, and (as with education in Florida now and abortion in many states now), the vague rules differentially applied and the culture of fear surrounding them will have most people censor and restrict THEMSELVES out of fear / caution / whatever. The Republican culture war rhetoric will, nevertheless, escalate. Scapegoats will be Trans people and “illegals.”
There will still be tons of really good people working hard to shore up democracy and get through the next four years. At some point, President Trump will leave office within a maximum of four years. The country will still be here, just having slid a lot farther from 2024–2028 than it did from 2016–2020.
I’m with this. His transparency is backfiring. He looks like an ass the more he’s in the news.
I feel most people will eventually ask themselves: Do I want a man going to foreign countries negotiating peace/trade/etc. showing up saying, “I’m the greatest! They stole my election! (insert world salad), cofeve, give me money! I’m a victim!” All this while knowing the guy has never had a real job and who took any responsibility?
Note that you asked for the worst case realistically possible outcomes, so I am not saying that these these are likely to happen but just that they could.
The GOP takes the senate, and increases its lead in the house. MAGA republicans depose McConnell and replace him with Josh Hawley or the equivalent, who as his first act appies the nuclear option and removes the filibuster so that now Congress will act as a rubber stamp to Trump. They then expand the court to 17 adding an additional 8 Trump loyalists to Alito and Thomas, who are each given a number of lavish gifts by their “friends” to keep them in line. So now all three branches are under MAGA control.
On the foreign front, the US pulls out of NATO and starts selling arms to Russia which allows them to “liberate” Ukraine. Zelenski falls out a window and a Russian puppet is installed. Russia takes a breather and starts re-arming. Trump makes a visit to Taiwan and China, offering the US support to whomever makes him the better deal.
On the border Trump starts building his big beautiful wall. In the meantime border patrol is authorized to use deadly force in prevening invasions by unauthorized individuals. Local citizenry are also allowed to get in the game in they want, with a promise that they will be pardoned for any federal felonies involved in securing the border, Abbott follows suit promising pardon for state crimes.
On the domestic side mass firings and down-sizing of the governement, with staff levels cut by 50 percent. Who stays or goes depends primarily on percieved loyalty to the party line. The “Fight Disinformation Act” results in the FCC revoking all licenses for those stations found guilty of speading sedition. Government policies basically look like a Republican wet dream as civil rights legislation drops back about 80 years, a flat tax rate of 15 percent is imposed with capital gains exempt. wellfare and food stamps become nearly non-existant, while coprotate welfare increases, EPA finds that climate change is a hoax and that the clean air and water acts are no longer necessary. etc.
Any protest to these actions are put down violently. Come 2028, this civil unrest is seen as a reason to delay elections until they are resolved. We’ll let you know when.