Let’s say Trump somehow wins in next year, with a map like the one he won with in 2016. What happens from there? Will there be elections in 2028? If so, will Trump run again and dare anyone who opposes him to take it to the SCOTUS? Will he have rigged the rules in the purple states so that they will go R no matter what happens with the vote? I’ve mentioned future elections, but this is obviously a broad topic, and I don’t want to limit discussion to just those particular aspects. The question is basically this. How bad would things get?
Chaos. Things would get bad. Beyond that, who can tell?
Yeah, we’ve learned that predicting things with Trump at the helm is like spinning a fortune wheel. There are a few predictable things: Putin will be awesome again, the richest of us will damn sure need a tax cut, DOJ will be Trump’s personal law firm.
In no particular order, and no particular time frame:
- China will move on Taiwan, precipitating world economic chaos. Trump will not intervene.
- If Putin is still in charge, Russia will move on Poland. Trump will do nothing, throwing NATO into chaos.
- Disruption across America. Key supply chains (gas, food, etc.) will crack.
- Riots and Trump will activate the Insurrection Act.
- Democratic leaders will yell, stamp their feet, and do nothing.
- Republican leaders initially will be smiling, but not for long.
- MAGA supporters will jump for joy, until they realize there were betrayed.
Yeah, again. Trump (Putin) fucking hates NATO. It’s a wonder that any other country bothers counting on the US after Trump has shown what loyalty means to him personally, nevermind anyone else.
That I can answer for sure. No matter, how bad it gets, yes.
Reasonably fair elections? I’m less confident there, but probably. This was big:
Congress passes election reform designed to ward off another Jan. 6
To stop elections, or steal any but the closest, he would have to gain true control over the judiciary. In just four more years, this is unlikely. Even killing judges probably won’t work. As seen in Italy and Ghana, many judges are very brave.
Yes, something very bad may happen, and we don’t know what it will be. I think this is a significant risk:
A risk, yes. As for Trump not intervening, you don’t know that, and, more importantly, neither does Xi. Trump wouldn’t go to war to preserve democracy, but losing Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the sort of threat that would get his attention.
Politico published a plan today to deal with the Trump NATO risk area. World leaders probably have been thinking about something similar already, and I think the plan would work:
As the hypotheticals above indicate; A Trump re-elect might be a savage kick to the goulies of ‘merkin democracy, but there are sparse winners amongst rest of the globe as well.
Frankly, as an experiment in sociology, it would have been better if he hadn’t got the key to the Executive washroom in the first place.
They will never ever realize this. They can be told the orange koolaid is pure poison and they will still enthusiastically drink.
Barring nuclear warfare, NATO even without the USA would stomp the crap out of Russia. NATO recently changed their policy from “Let Russia take land until the USA can get there” to “Get 'em”.
Yes. Given how incompetent the Russians have shown their armed forces to be in their failure to conquer Ukraine, it’s highly unlikely they could withstand the combined fury of NATO, not least because of how they’ve depleted their own military assets in their self-inflicted quagmire.
But if it came to that, at some point the nukes start flying.
True. If Putin goes into Poland or another border country, and NATO responds as it should as a mutual-defense organization, then it’s Armageddon, Apocalypse now, the End Times for the current human world.
What happens if Trump wins in 2024?
I’m moving. I don’t care where. I’ll throw a dart at a world map that doesn’t include the U.S.
But, and I think this is key, they -aren’t- being betrayed. In the past, the political parties made promises that they’d provide jobs, lower taxes, safety, etc. And most often, they didn’t even try, or tried and failed, or barely moved the needle.
The ‘genius’ of Trump and those who follow in his wake is to not promise those things. They promise that they’ll HURT the people they dislike - immigrants, LGBQT+, non-Christians, THE THEM of all types and flavors.
And in this, they succeed. And they love him for it. The fact that they are being fleeced, that they aren’t improving their lives, and in fact are demonstrably losing opportunities (jobs, education, etc) DOESN’T matter.
As for what happens if Trump wins, I think that Trump will spend his time gutting every single Federal agency, and will succeed. That in and of itself will fundamentally crash our government as we lose everyone with experience and competence. The states will more or less go their own way in the meantime, until we fail to raise the debt limit next time… and when things get bad enough, he’ll declare martial law for the duration.
After that? Well, it’s an ability the executive has, the legislature (R) is craven, and the SCOTUS if they remain strict structuralists, will demure. And then, THEN it’ll get bad.
I’m not so sure. Many analysts claim that mutually assured destruction no longer exists, but I don’t think so. As the head of a state that thinks they are the dominant force on the planet, you have to evaluate the likelihood that you would be committing murder/suicide. Are the Russians or Chinese willing to dedicate themselves to such a resolve? Nothing has convinced me that is so. If Russia invaded a NATO country, I think NATO would only go so far as to contain Russia to its own province and not try to utterly destroy them, which would certainly trigger a Russian nuclear response.
He’ll spend 2 years resolving all his legal problems and going Corleone on his grievance list, then he’ll get bored with it and fuck off to executive time and parades and rallies.
I’m not saying a lot of bad won’t happen.
Considering the capabilities of the Russian military. I wonder just how many nukes can fly, and how many would boomerang or end up somewhere in the south Atlantic.
But, of course it only takes a few. To start a devastating world war. But I suspect Russia would be on the receiving end of just about everything. China would probably sit back with plans to sweep into Russia when the dust settles.
Putin would believe NATO would attempt to destroy Russia, because that is what he would do in their place. He would begin launching missiles.
Then what would be the point of Russia invading in the first place? I doubt even Putin expects no NATO response at all. He’s deluded enough to think it might be an inadequate response, which gives Russia a chance to win. But if his reaction to any NATO response at all is nuclear war, why not just start there?