IMO a big part of it is that American voters tend to remember bad economic times for a long time and are going to continue having pessimistic views on the economy until things have looked good for a while.
While Biden of course has to make as much of an economic case as possible, breaking even with the GOP on the economy is probably the best he can hope for, meanwhile issues like abortion and selling himself as the not-vrazy candidate are what he is going to need to pudh himself over the top.
Putin has never been accused of logical thinking. If he wero attack a NATO country, he would do so only if he thought he could get away with it. Were NATO to invade, he would be cornered and believe NATO would destroy Russia.
Agreeing with many others here:
If Trump wins in 2024:
I think even that is too neat and tidy. I have long been skeptical that the typical alt history / worst case scenario of “the United States exactly the size and structure it is now, except dictatorship” is at all likely, and I continue to believe so. I think that if dictatorship-style moves are indeed made, a messy shattering of some kind is infinitely more likely than the US carrying on as a cohesive One Nation Under Trump.
You may well be correct - but I think the breakup will take longer than a 4 -8 year timeframe. I could add more points to my post for the mid-long term, and that would include a fracturing of the country. Along what lines is open to debate. “One nation under Trump” will indeed not last long.
After the “arrest of the disloyal” and “suspension of elections” will come
Again, I have no predictions about how this split will work out. North v South? State v. State? Urban v. Rural? Combination of the above?
See, I’m not sure One Nation Under Trump is likely to begin with in a practical sense, especially not combined with an invasion of a neighboring country. The armed forces would be too busy fighting the cities and amongst themselves to invade anybody.
At any rate, I try not to dwell too much on future speculation “misery porn.” I know from experience that it’s easy to get sucked in and wallow. But don’t let that stop anyone else who wants to look into this bad future!
If Trump gets back in, the amount of misinformation about election security will likely skyrocket. There’s a plan by the Heritage Foundation to get rid of or move the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which is “focused on guarding the nation’s critical infrastructure, including the systems used to conduct elections.” So you can see the issue right away.
I’m also trying to puzzle this out.
I would expect attacks on courthouses in counties that have commissioners with a (D) after their name. More attacks on Planned Parenthood etc.
If the MAGATs have the ability to travel, State courthouses are next.
Or they may just loot their local Walmart and call it a civil war. They will be too busy setting up their new TV to do much else. This is probably more likely for these morons.
I’m not sure about this one, Trump seems very legit in his hate for China. I do not think he is faking that.
They will offer him a site for nix to build Trump - Beijing or Shanghai or Taipei. He’ll be sweet.
Trump pleads not guilty. And you can tell it’s hurricane season. (From the Manchester Guardian today…)
“As evidenced by my signature below,” said the two-page-filing submitted in Fulton county superior court by Trump’s lead lawyer, Steven Sadow, “I do hereby waive formal arraignment and enter my plea of NOT GUILTY to the Indictment in this case.”
Trump’s Sharpie-written signature marks the fourth time in as many months that he has pleaded not guilty to criminal charges, after previously being indicted in a hush-money case in New York, in a classified documents case in Florida, and in a federal 2020 election subversion case in Washington.
I wonder how much work it took him to perfect that aggressively vicious sig?
Handwriting analysis books say sharp lines are written by violent people.
If Trump wins, all regulation is suspended. Vaccination is made illegal. Several departments of government are ended. EPA is ended. FDA becomes a rubber stamp. You have to pay them enough to approve a drug. The more you pay, the faster it is processed.
Russia: Aid to Ukraine is stopped and American sanctions are lifted. Trump negtiates a deal with Putin to sell the Arms that were earmarked for Ukriane to Russia instead in exchange for Oil. Russia takes over Ukraine in its entirety enforcing a brutal dictatorship along with a reign of terror. No attempt is made to go further as Putin breathes a sigh or relief and decides not to press his luck. Russia spends the rest of Putin’s life fighting an Ukrainian nationalist terrorist insurgency, until a couple of decades later when it finally withdraws exhausted(see Afghanistan)
China: Trump makes trips to both China and Taiwan, and eventually picks the one that he thinks offers him the best economic deal (and personal bribe).
Mexico: A small scale invasion without permission (ala Panama 1990) is conducted to root out drug and human traffickers and disrupt migrant caravans. Border guards are authorized to shoot on sight. Work is done on the beautiful wall and in some cases the wall is actually constructed on Mexican territory effectively annexing it for the United States.
Other nations: While not hostile, the United states is viewed as no longer being a trusted ally. Probably kinda like most countries view China. Intelligence sharing with the United States halts immediately. All information previously shared is assumed to now be in enemy hands.
Federal government: Mass firings and resignations to replace any and all employees with Trump loyalists. Federal scientific findings on health, safety and the environment suddenly perfectly align with Republican ideology, and federal grants are only offered to those entities who Trump/Republican supporters. All efforts on promoting diversity and a non-hostile work environment are ended immediately and any offices/positions supporting those are closed. The hatch act is rigorously enforced on any employee espousing liberal views, even in social media on their own time, and is rigorously ignored for any federal employee supporting Republican candidates.
Justice department: All federal investigations of wrong doing of Trump and those loyal to Trump are immediately dropped. Federal investigations of Trump’s enemies are initiated on even the slightest whiff of fabricated rumor. These don’t actually lead to convictions since the judiciary is not fully stocked with judges willing to ignore the law. I think that the January 6th insurgents remain in prison since they were losers of no real significance and who served their purpose and don’t have anything to really offer Trump.
2028 election: Two possibilities age and diet finally catch up with Trump and he is so old and feeble that he doesn’t run, or scenario despite being ineligible to serve a third term, Trump runs and gets the Republican nomination. His name appears on ballots in some Red states, but not in blue states. Trump loses by a landslide but refuses to step down claiming that the electoral votes of the states on whose ballots didn’t carry his name shouldn’t count. Constitutional crisis and possible civil war follows.
You guys have some… interesting ideas about what would happen under a 2nd Trump term. Invade Mexico and Canada, why? The Russians all of a sudden look under the couch and find the ability to actually beat the Ukraine? A US-free NATO defending an invasion of Poland = nuclear war??
What would actually happen IMO is that we’d have our first Presidential assassination since 1963. Historically, we are overdue for another one.
I mean I dislike the man as much as the next guy but some of you are making him out to be an evil genius. Sure bad things will happen but there is no evil plan. We have 4 years of history to look at. He has no plans. He’s totally inept and ineffective. He will do stupid things on the spur of the moment without thought. Luckily his ego is so big that if someone smarter tries to manipulate him he will eventually decide they are the worst and never were any good and drop them.
Emboldening deplorables will be bad. Pushing back any thought of normalcy in political discourse for more years or decades is bad. More Trump Supreme Court nominees will be bad. Going after those that wronged him will be bad. It will be bad. It will not be organized or thought out. He is happiest when he can just sit back, do nothing and tweet at 3am.
Sadly he wouldn’t have to be “ept” and effective to take the US out of NATO and, notwithstanding the rest of NATOs determination and strength, I still think that that would be catastrophic.
And remember, his ineptitude and ineffectiveness resulted in half a million dying from a fairly easily preventable virus.
And this.
There’s also the fact that he’d be appointing a slew of people as malevolent as he is, and no doubt at least some of them would be ept and effective enough to do major damage. Give him a GOP-controlled House and Senate to enact laws carrying out the destruction of government, and there’s no telling how thoroughly his maladministration would crater the country.
Then too, a lot would depend on how awful but competent his VP was and whether Trump would die in office.
ETA: I’m glad I live in Massachusetts.
This, and he didn’t fail to overturn the 2020 election through ineptness, he failed to overturn the 2020 election because of a few people who did the right thing at the right time.