Not seeing this at all. There would be a stronger argument against the Electoral College and that has never been challenged. I don’t think it’s possible for the Supreme Court to “strike down” an amendment.
There are tons of restrictions, have to be born in USA, age, state restrictions on state office holders as well.
I have an acquaintance who has just moved to Canada for this reason
A gay friend who attempted to buy citizenship in Portugal points out that Austria was not a safe haven for Jews.
Legislatively, it’s reasonable to talk about that. I think voting at this point has been so decoupled that I really don’t know that a vote for Trump means a vote for anyone else, so I don’t forecast any trends for Senate/Congress.
On talk alone Trump is an awful person. Partisanship so heavy that it doesn’t matter if he says awful things is bad, bad, bad. People have every right to be appalled and more by that.
It’s also possible that in the way that WWI paved the way for Hitler, Trump will pave the way for someone more willing to act on such talk, that Trump is coarsening the dialogue for someone worse in the future.
That being said, an elected Trump will probably be the same as we’ve seen before. Fortunately for the rest of us, he barely understands the system. So he will mostly continue to be awful talk, IMO. Awful enough, but I think that is the likely outcome if he is elected again.
Trump does bring up the fallacy of the in the tent pissing out comment from way back when. Trump pisses in the tent, he pisses out the tent. He’s pretty much piss itself. But then that’s always been Trump’s play anyway. Subvert expectations. You thought I would pay my bills, but I won’t. 90% of life is showing up. Trump is the other 10%. So a lot of these truisms never apply to Trump. It’s more like a walk through the sewage plant or toxic nuclear waste. Just get out.
He likely won’t win. But it is possible.
Worst? Project 2025.
trump, with help from Fox and Conservative Talk radio, are very likely responsible for anything from 1/3 to 2/3 of the covid deaths the USA endured.
An “invasion” of Mexico to get rid of the cartels. Possible.
SCOTUS becoming a 100% tool of the MAGAs. Likely.
Government by threat is already here, but it will become a daily thing. Likely.
The one exception I would admit that would be persuasive is an amendment to reform the makeup of the Senate, since the amendment process for the constitution specifically prohibits denying states their representation in the Senate. Despite the fact that this is horrible for equal representation, giving people in small states several times the voting power per capita of the largest states in the Senate and Presidential races.
But this is immaterial because such an amendment would never pass the required number of states. The large and medium sized states that lean heavily toward the party that would be hurt by this would vote against it, as would all small states even if their party in general would be helped by it (like Vermont, currently.)
Unfortunately, there are plenty of folks out there who DO understand the system, and also understand how to suck up to Trump. These are the people who will operationalize Trumps idiot musings, and also fill his ears with some “really good ideas” of their own. Think Grima Wormtongue.
Remember when in 2016, the “adults in the room” would keep Trump reined in? That did not work out too well for them. Now, the “adults in the room” won’t go near Trump with a 10 foot pole, lest their careers go into the dumpster fire.
What will be left to surround Trump will be the sycophants, the toadies, the folks who will do anything for money, and those who seek to take advantage of the situation for their own gain, including the aforementioned “Project 2025”
Based on Trump’s repeated losses in the courts as of late, I have a feeling he has already decided that the courts are the problem and should be ignored.
When Trump talks about absolute immunity, he isn’t just claiming it for past events. He’s claiming it for future events too. He wants there to be no other laws than Trump. So with this in mind, if he decides he wants to be President for the rest of his life, he does not require permission from anyone. And if he is actually voted in despite everything he has done, America will be giving him a mandate to ignore and all laws. For a significant percentage of the voting population, it is more amusing to watch a crazy narcissist burn it all down than it would be to watch Biden try to fix things instead.
I think we’ve done a reasonable job, with the Electoral College Reform Act, or lowering the chances Trump could turn the U.S. into a long-term dictatorship.
So the worst possible remaining realistic outcome is nuclear war. Consider this paraphrase of New York Times reporter Michael Schmidt:
Trump’s chaotic foreign policy makes nuclear miscalculation much more possible.
If that’s the case, then your stepdaughter may well have Canadian citizenship, as well. Certainly if her mother was born in Canada. It’s worth starting the paperwork on that now, just in case.
Honestly, I spend a lot of time working in Europe, and I speak to European friends every day. This isn’t just a North American phenomenon.
I can’t explain it, but various flavors of MAGA are alive and well all over the place. I think what’s most strange is that it’s everywhere, all of a sudden, all at once.
This. Right here.
Trump has already tried to overturn an election, for which he should be in jail. If he’s re-elected, he will spend the next 4 years consolidating HIS POWER. The 2028 election, even if he’s not on the ballot due to the 22nd amendment, is where the worst case comes true. The GOP nominee will be part of MAGA-world. You can count on that. And if the Dem wins that election in 2028, Trump and his mini-authoritarian brigade will attempt to overturn it again. Or - even worse - Trump will try to impose some sort of martial law, and claim that we have a national emergency and we have to delay the election.
It’s hard to come up with a worst case, because there are so many bad ones. But you can bet he will break the law again, and test the ability of our democracy to withstand his authoritarianism.
This would be oh so easy to do: “For the safety and security of our great nation, I am suspending the 2028 election until we can identify and root-out all sources of election fraud, which cost me and the country so much eight years ago…”
We’re kind of already there: the main parties’ main candidates have been excluded from various ballots for various non-equivalent reasons (Biden in NH, Trump in CO etc.), and rather than accepting that, they’re pushing back. Biden used a legitimate write-in campaign, which worked well and caused no damage to the system.
Trump is working the courts and the headlines and has already issued vague warnings of trouble if he doesn’t get his way. We’ll see what happens there in a couple of weeks, but “Trump quietly accepts the decision to remain off the ballot” or “Trump organizes and executes a successful write-in campaign” seem vanishingly unlikely to me.
The problem is, as has been mentioned by others, that the Electoral College Reform Act, and every other law passed not just in the US but any place and any time in history, are just words on pieces of paper / stone / whatever. If the guys with guns / swords / whatever are unwilling to enforce those laws, they aren’t going to enforce themselves. But yes, nuclear war is of course the worst case scenario.
Since the president currently has zero role in the election process, it would not be easy to do. If he tried and he had guns behind him he’s already a dictator at that point.
As far as MAGA going on elsewhere, my knowledge of history say that’s more the rule than the exception.
If people like that want to bring a fight we cannot entirely stop that. We can respond to it. It sucks, it’s a pain in the ass, the people that want to fight are evil and morons. But it is what it is. If we need to reestablish the right way then we may need to fight for it. Something more muscular than the fatalism that’s often on these boards.
Worst case? MTG is his VP. And he resigns.
Sleep tight (I should write horror novels).
But he does have the Bully Pulpit of the presidency, and a significant number of the officials in quite a few states have already shown their willingness to mess with the process on his behalf. Give him another four years, and there will be more people like that in place, and they’ll be more fanatical.
Then, you’ll have half the States suspending their elections “because of the crisis” to “support the president”, and the other half will be “violent traitors” who need to be put down. No need to kill everyone when half the country supports you.
Not a chance. He might drop dead in office. I certainly care about his VP. But there’s no chance he resigns.
Yeah, and if he did that, he would still have all his legal issues. BUT MTG could pardon him for some of them.
The analysts I follow conclude that America’s abandonment of Ukraine emboldens Russia to believe that America is weak and will not defend NATO, leading to an attack on what Russia claims it owns (Baltics, parts of Poland). I find it very likely this will happen if we continue not to support Ukraine.
To be clear, Trump caused that disease, and Trump will bury NATO’s corpse, but it’s Biden who is furiously hammering nails into the coffin by failing to support Ukraine and blaming it on Congress. He honest-to-god believes he’s placating an authentic anti-war constituency, when in reality it’s all “useful idiots” for Russia/Iran who were never going to vote for him anyway.