The use of the term “incumbent” is misleading, because the office holder is not running for the office.
There is the recall issue itself. “Yes” to recall the official; “no” to not. This is a confidence vote, not an election.
And there is a general election, which the official cannot run in–there is no incumbent, by law.
Every voter can vote on both parts, the recall issue and the general election.
Yes, I’m aware of all of that. It’s very common in the history of the United States to give minority-rule the veneer of legitimacy through procedural trickery. In California recall elections, they separate out one candidate’s votes and hold them to a standard that no other candidate’s votes must meet; in other states, they used to require voters to give the number of bubbles in a bar of soap and then claim that the result was legitimate because only the intelligent voters were admitted to the polling booth.
Democracy is at risk right now. It would be foolish for California to allow its own to be dragged down.
Thinking about it some more, one big risk I see in the recall effort is the enthusiasm gap. The “recallers” have some number of enthusiastic voters, whereas there is not really an equal/opposite motivated block of Newsom enthusiasts.
Instead, like this thread somewhat illustrates, there are those who think he is doing fine to pretty decent to good. In addition, there are those like me who see the whole thing as GOP shenanigans and wish they would just stop. Are those things that motivate enthusiasm in a voter for an off-cycle election? I’ thinking that that answer is, “Not really!”
He has a block of solid SF supporters.
I don’t live in California so I don’t know how things are “on the ground” or anything, but I expect that there are probably people who were apathetic about him before, thinking he was “fine” but not caring, who might be more defensive and supportive now that people want to recall him.
A new poll reports that Newsom is highly favored to defeat the recall.
Here’s a map of California counties showing where the recall has more or less traction.
Of note the recall has more favor, or so it seems, in the rural/farming areas (and in the north, where the State of Jefferson crazies reside), while the populated coastal areas and urban centers there is little interest.
surprised no GOP celeb has jumped in yet but I guess there will be time after the recall is officially approved
I read the other day that Caitlin Jenner is contemplating throwing her hat into the ring.
What’s the current status of the recall effort, btw?
I’ll bet that number goes up every time another publicly-seeking celebrity throws their hat in the ring. Billboard Queen Angelyne has just declared her candidacy.
I’d expect the number goes up more as Covid gets controlled and vaccinations continue to increase. The mid June complete reopening sounds about right
I think there is likely to be an election this fall for the recall, in spite of general opposition. I think the recall organizers have enough valid signatures. And while the majority seems to oppose this nonsense recall, if there is an election, and nobody but the recall supporters show up to vote, Newsom may be out. So, lack of enthusiasm aside, if there is a ballot we will need to make sure there is enough Newsom supporters (even if grudgingly) turning out to vote NO on the idiotic recall.
Agreed, the recall is pointless and stupid but apathy could allow a combination of lefties and Republicans to recall Newsom.
Caitlin Jenner in the race now.
I’m glad Jenner is in, this will give apathetic Dems a reason to turn out.
Agree. Jenner will bring more eyes on this sham recall. I hope people will realize what is going on and go vote NO.
Might help Newsom in a weird way. Any legitimate challenger probably feels deflated now a reality tv celebrity has jumped in. All that money and effort to drive a recall and now one of the Kardashian people decide to make it their next little shiny object to parade.
Hmm. On the off-chance that she actually gets elected, what are Jenner’s politics?