Religious War in Iraq

It has long been my contention that the most dreadful prospect we face in Iraq would be the morphing of political conflict in Iraq to sectarian conflict, i.e., Sunni vs Shia. Recent events in Iraq certainly seem to underscore this ghastly prospect.

Item: http://nytimes.com/2005/11/29/international/middleeast/29security.html?hp&ex=1133326800&en=f18810368c98ae2c&ei=5094&partner=homepage

This is a thorny dilemma. On the one hand, according to the “freedom/democracy” theme the Bushiviks are intent on claiming as thier sole motive for initiating this shitstorm, we should, by all rights, be solidly on the side of the Shia. They are, in truth, the demographic majority. According to the priciples we claim to support, a federalized Iraq not only can be organized to favor the Shia majority, it should be. The principle of “majority rules” can easily be used as a justification for the rawest of oppression.

Who’s side, then, are we on? Whose side should we be on? Currently, we are actively suppressing a Sunni “insurgency” on behalf of the government of Iraq. A case can be made that we are fighting their fight for them, spending our blood and treasure on their behalf. We are being used, to put it bluntly.

We are told that a sectarian civil war will result from a precipitous, “cut and run” approach to the insurgency. That we are obligated to stand and fight until the governance of Iraq can carry the struggle on its own.

I contend that said struggle has already begun, and we are in the horrid position of having chosen a side in a conflict that can only get worse. Our enemies hate us the more for it, our allies are simply using our blood and treasure to substitute for their own, it is a realpolitik that Bismarck and Kissinger would wholly admire.

I was long an advocate of the “we broke it, we are obliged to fix it.” I have abandoned this position, with grave reluctance. I no longer believe it possible. An honorable exit from a dishonorable military adventure would be making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear, a blood-soaked sows ear. Increasingly, our blood, and the blood of the innocent.

If we insist on protecting the Sunni, the Shia majority has every legal right, according to the principles we offer mealy-mouthed adherence, to order us off thier territory. We have even stated such as our goal, that we will fight their fight for them until we are no longer needed, as they “stand up”, we “stand down”.

I find myself advocating a dreadful position, having no better alternative. We should withdraw ourselves as immediatly as possible. We should then focus on applying what meager influence we have to ameliorate and shorten the current and ensuing conflict, recognizing our limitations.

There is nothing palatable about this. But if the honorable course is impossible, the choice becomes which dishonorable alternative is the least ghastly. Innocents are dying, and will die. The Sunni, almost certainly, cannot prevail.

Perhaps, indeed, our presence currently prevents a wider conflict, it forstalls direct intervention by other ME states into the conflict. On the other hand, perhaps that direct intervention might be the least horrid alternative, leading to a negotiated settlement sooner rather than later. A short, nasty war rather than a long, drawn out agony.

There are no good alternatives. I recognize, with a heavy heart, that I am proferring a horror. There is no joy in it, there is only the solemn recognition of fact, and a fierce anger that any of our best and brightest be used as food for a monster.

With grave reluctance: Out Now!

Not that I disagree with your contention that the U.S. should withdraw from Iraq (except for the proposed time course). But:

Do you really think the second part of this statement is remotely compatible with the first part?

Yes. Next question?

I have no idea how that entirely innappropriate smiley got there. Not my doing, I hasten to assure.

Allawi has an agenda - don’t take what he says at face value.

Roger Owen offers a best-case scenario - that Iraq could work like Lebanon. If. And it isn’t a very attractive picture, either.

In Iraq, though, the Shiites are gaining control (or, rather, the Iranian mullahs are via the Iraqi Shiites) over a minority that had ruled by force for many decades. Memories are long. It might well be that the full-blown reprisal campaign will burn out in fairly short time, but with a lot of Sunni corpses left behind and a full theocratic subjugation regime in place. If there’s any real likelihood of avoiding that, I’d like to know, and let’s not waste time the talking points about “The Iraqi people are determined to make democracy work”. That isn’t what the preponderance of the evidence says, not with a definition of democracy we’d be happy using.

Time to declare victory and get out. If letting Bush call the facade we leave behind “democracy” will let him give the order, that’s fine.

The irony is, that before he leaves office, Bush will do exactly what you are proposing, but will declare it a victory for Freedom & Democracy.

Then so be it. If the people are dumb enough to buy it, I have no recourse. My committment to democracy is not based on any pretense that it is the best form of government, only that it is the most just.

If the Bushiviks can package this monstrosity as a victory, one can only admire thier skills and fault our credulity. So be it. Democracy ain’t for sissies.

We’ve got a semi sticky wicket.

We can’t stay, we can’t leave, and we can’t fail.”

Have mercy! That monograph is 67 pages of cast-iron wonk!

From the synopsis:

Well, yes.

I’ve given up looking for the best option. I’m merely looking for the least horrible.

I’m building a Cliff’s notes. But it’s likely to be longish too. I’ll share later when I’m done and have attached the links to the footnotes.

One can only hope that such will appear, toot sweet, on the woefully underestimated http://irrationallyinformed.com/, without which no citizen can hope to be fully informed.

As well, consider the following:

‘The Salvador Option’
The Pentagon may put Special-Forces-led assassination or kidnapping teams in Iraq

The horror. The horror.

elucidator, what is your source for the quoted text? I ask because we’ve already had a couple of threads on the use of the “Salvador Option” in Iraq – see http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=296099&highlight=salvador and http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=313392&highlight=salvador – and I want to make sure this isn’t old news.

Perhaps we can name the squads after the Arabic term for intelligence? We could call them the Mukhabarat.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6802629/site/newsweek/

From January, Newsweek, so “old news” may well apply. My bad, if it is such.

Here’s another irony – the elected government we’re supporting in Iraq is, largely, a Shi’ite and pro-Iranian government. When all is said and done, our major accomplishment in Iraq will have been to move Tehran 600 miles closer to Tel Aviv.

That characterization is a little much.

The relationship between the Iraqi parties (formerly in exile in Iran) is and has been one of convenience. The Iraqis know this.
Right now, Iran’s in a position to provide help in ways that benefit Iran and that Iraq’s willing to accept. But, barring the jarringly unexpected, Iraq will not become a subsidary of Iran.

Sending in death squads would be about as effective as sending in Up With People, since the big, basic dynamics seem to be beyond tinkering: the Shiites will gravitate to Iran; the Kurds will chip away at Turkey; and the Sunni will cling to what’s left of Baathism by gravitaing toward Syria. All these movements will in turn set others in motion, some equally predictable, others which support the “one damned thing after another” theory of history.

I just hope that it takes less than the Hussite War-through-Thirty Years War duration of 228 years that Europe required for its religious wars, while I also hope that any brevity will not be due to global nuclear war.

Why not cut to the chase and carve out separate Kurdish, Shiite, and Sunni states? Though not inevitable, that is the most likely outcome anyway. It would involve displacement of a number of minoriities living in areas populated by majorities, but I believe this would result in fewer deaths than continued insurgency with the prospect of civil war hanging in the air. Any unified state will always have the threat if not the reality of majority oppression of the minorities.

It appears there are no good solutions. Anybody have one that is less bad than this?

Then you need to think about this again and rephrase your position.

Immediate withdrawal sacrifices any possibility of U.S. influence on what happens in Iraq (they’re not paying a whole lot of attention now). Your proposal goes more like: Immediate withdrawal, anticipating full-scale civil war, and hoping the casualties and eventual state of Iraq are not worse than what would occur with a less precipitate policy.

My own proposal would be to announce a complete withdrawal by a defined date (i.e. the end of 2006) with maintenance of a rapid deployment force in the region with the intent of keeping hands off except in the event of disaster (genocide, al-Queda power grab etc.). Might focus a few minds on getting ready for the inevitable and lessen chances of total chaos. Or not.