Republican Controlled House vs. Ukraine Funding Question

Politics & Elections
1

Mods: I tried to find a similar thread but couldn’t. Feel free to merge as appropriate. Maybe this should be in P&E?

Let’s assume the Republicans win back the House with a 10-seat majority, and Kevin McCarthy takes over as Speaker of the House.

It is likely this razor-thin Republican majority can stop any currently allocated funding to Ukraine, as well as block any further military funding, or does President Biden, with or without the approval of the Senate, have the authority to continue to provide aid as he sees fit?

2

In order for this to work, House Republicans would have to be near-unanimously against Ukraine funding. But a sizable chunk of House Rs are still pro-Ukraine. So the anti-Ukraine Rs wouldn’t be able to get a 218-seat majority to do this sort of thing.

That being said, there is discussion that the House D’s may pass a massive Ukraine aid bill that would assist Ukraine throughout 2023, in the winter session, to lock in Ukraine aid before incoming anti-Ukraine Rs could do anything about it.

3

In general, once funding has been allocated, is it impossible for Congress to deallocate that funding even if they have the votes in both the House and Senate, or would that deallocation be subject to a presidential veto? I doubt this has ever happened before.

4

In general, I’m doubtful that McCarthy is opposed to funding Ukraine. He was just throwing a bone to the Trump-ites and the budget hawks. He’ll let people bring stuff to the floor and let the House Republicans switch sides, freely. Maybe he’ll hold up a budget or two for a few weeks, once, and that will be enough to sell it.

Politicians know how to fail to use the levers at their disposal.

5

Funding allocation or de-allocation, either one, is a bill like any other. De-allocating funding once it’s allocated would require cooperation of the Senate and be subject to a Presidential veto.

6

Many elected Republicans (MAGAs only?) are pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine. I want to think they are the minority of the party, but it’s hard to tell.

7

OTOH, would they be able to carve out funding for Ukraine in the next budget?

8

That’s where I think McCarthy would try to get something out of it during the negotiation, which would inevitably drag out any agreement.

9

This is a good example of how such a close split is almost as good as a win. It’s now going to be very, very hard for Democrats to actually do anything, but it’s going to be almost as hard for the Republicans to get anything done. There are at least 20 moderate Republicans who won their moderate districts by the skin of their teeth. They are not going to follow the Far Right off a cliff.

10

Even if they were the majority of the R’s, it wouldn’t be enough.

Nearly all Ds are pro-Ukraine. A sizable chunk of Rs are pro-Ukraine. Together they combine for a majority.

The only way Ukraine aid could be stopped by Congress were if nearly-100% of Rs were anti-Ukraine, and that isn’t the case.