The mods didn’t like this being discussed in the general war-in-Ukraine thread, so here is its own:
Prominent Republicans, such as House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, have already indicated that they may reduce or cut off further aid to Ukraine if the Republicans win the House in November (which they likely will.)
As I understand it, the point of the Lend-Lease Ukraine bill passed earlier this year was that Biden alone would have sole power to give Ukraine aid, and there would be nothing Congress could do to revoke Lend-Lease once it already passed. But how much aid is in that bill, and does it run out at some point?
In other words, is the ongoing flow of U.S. aid to Ukraine safe from Republican hands during 2023-2024, regardless of what House Republicans do?
I don’t know, but should the Republicans take the House or Senate, the lame-duck House and Senate may (and hopefully would) pass a bill giving Biden lots of authority to give aid to Ukraine for the next 2 years.
Overt actions against Ukraine by a Republican Congress would be vetoed by Biden and in neither house would they have to votes to override. They might try doing so as a rider in a bill the Democrats are for, but still the probabilities are low.
Not reupping a bill is a better strategy. The Lend-Lease Ukraine bill runs through FY 2023, i.e. through September 30, 2023. What the political and military situation will be by then is impossible to say.
Almost nothing is technically impossible. Political feasibility and success are far iffier.
The Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 provides the President with enhanced authority to lend or lease defense articles to the government of Ukraine through September 30, 2023. Separately, Congress appropriated $40 billion in aid for Ukraine in May, and another $12 billion last month.
There’s little that a Republican majority could do directly to reverse the lend-lease provisions. They could try to insert language in a “must pass” measure like a government continuing resolution or debt limit increase and dare the President to veto it. However, the Defense Department will need funding to backfill the inventory that we’ll be lending and leasing, and Republicans could cause trouble in the annual Defense Appropriations bill.
Aid to Ukraine will continue for a while. If Republicans take both the legislative houses then the fate of the world will depend on Mitch McConnell to preserve the military industrial welfare system and stop the House from acting on the orders of Donald Trump to declare the whole of Ukraine as Russian territory and deliver Zelensky to Putin as a war criminal.
If the Dems don’t significantly raise the debt limit before losing power (assuming they lose power in the next election), there’s almost nothing the Republicans couldn’t do by threatening to make the US default.
We sure? Because I was under the impression it didn’t work out so well for them in other situations. Their donors put pressure on them to stop.
And I very much think the military industrial complex still basically owns the Republicans. Sure, helping Ukraine is also the right thing to do, but these companies won’t look a gift horse in the mouth when it comes to war profiteering.
The Senate will be helping Ukraine, regardless of whether the Democrats or Republicans win.
If the House goes Republican, they’ll probably have ~225 seats. If I’m doing my math correctly then, if even 8 Republicans are willing to switch sides, a funding package could still go through. That doesn’t seem terribly implausible.
It will be a bit more of a struggle to get bills to the floor but I don’t think that McCarthy will be able to effectively block them. And that’s especially true if he’s being dishonest about his real position on the subject, for votes. There’s different ways to block a bill and different ways to “Woops, it got past me. Sorry guys, I tried! Teehee!” I would assume that the man is pretty good at knowing how to fail on purpose, for the optics.
Yeah, right now the odds are on the Dems picking up a seat or two in the Senate, but the GOP winning a thin majority in the House. So the GOP led House won’t be about to actually pass anything, the Senate will block it.
Not all Repubs are Russian supporters, either, only a few. So, sure, maybe no increases, but continued support is likely.
Republicans weaponize the debt ceiling whenever there is a Democratic president. All the president has to do is call their bluff and let them shut the government down. After a couple days, Republicans will hear from their corporate masters to knock it off.
We came so close to defaulting on the debt during the showdown between the Republicans and Obama that our debt got downgraded. The Republican caucus is much nuttier now than it was then, with many more true believers who don’t care about any corporate masters.
They took us to the brink of default last time, with ideas about minting a $1 trillion coin floating around to stop the insanity. Their so-called corporate masters hated that, and hated the downgrade. Now, the party is filled with nuttier types, who seem to be either directly beholden to Putin, or continue to support him for some reason. If they want to stop funding aid to Ukraine, I think there’s a serious risk they would take drastic measures to do so.
I’ve never understood the point of this idea. Can someone explain what it would (theoretically) accomplish?
(Other than providing a plot for a heist movie, which would have to explain just what the hell you’re supposed to do with a trillion dollar coin once you’ve stolen it.)
It’s off-topic, but briefly, Congress has to authorize spending and the debt limit, but the executive is allowed to mint coins. Mint $1 trillion coin and deposit it with the Fed and redeem it for outstanding debt.