I am curious, though. So many of my friends and fellow Dopers seem to really loathe the Republican party, not without reason. Let’s say that following the Shutdown, Americans come to their senses and simply cease voting for them.
What’s the best outcome, and why? What’s the most likely outcome?
A one-party state: all Democrats, all the time!
One of the fringe third parties arises to become the other main party, as the Republicans did once upon the time. (But who would it be? Greens? Peace & Freedom? Bull Moose? Libertarians? Are any remotely viable?)
Democrats themselves split into two parties: Reaganocrats, and Librocrats, moving the center back towards the center.
Something else I haven’t thought of.
Personally, I think the two are so firmly entrenched that they’re more or less a permanent feature of American politics, but please go with this. My feeling is that the Democrats would quickly split into the slightly-left-of-center and slightly-right-of-center wings, with the money following the latter, and within a few decades we’d be back to where we started.
If the republicans went extinct, I think you’d find the factions of the Democratic party operating like separate parties, and eventually becoming separate. Everyone won’t be on the same page once the Republicans are gone, they’ll just align differently.
Recall that in his first election, Arnold got fewer votes than Gray Davis. He became governor due to the crazy recall election system. He won his second term fair and square, but that’s highly unusual. Democrats have dominated the California legislature for over a decade, as well as offices such as State Atty. General. At the present time, they have large enough legislative majorities to pass whatever they want, while ignoring the Pubs.
If the Republican Party simply went away (it won’t), the Democrats would eventually split. The defection of moderate Republicans from the Northeast and elsewhere and the shift in national discourse has moved the party to the right, and I’m sure there are plenty of Democrats who would be happy to let Blue Dog-type Democrats become an opposition party instead of a faction.
California’s House delegation has 38 Democrats and 15 Republicans, and the state has pretty much alternated between Republican and Democratic governors for 30 or 40 years. So- no. Just no.
I don’t really care where it comes from, I just want two parties that are non-horrifying. If the republicans redeem themselves, great, if the greens get lifted up, great, if the democrats get split, great, if we get some new “honest conservative” party, great.
Unfortunately I know that’s basically not going to happen - there’s too many extremists and money currently propping up republican party for any sort of real change.
What I see as hopefully more realistic is a shift away from issues that shouldn’t be up for debate (health care, LGBT rights and protections, abortion, environmental protections, etc) and instead actually let the parties fight on issues that deserve debate.
There’s an important distinction between the form that the Republican party has taken on in present day politics, and the principles that it theoretically espouses.
The former is loathsome and evil, the latter is something that I often disagree with but which I think can be an important counterbalance to keep potential Democratic excesses in check.
So what I’d like to have happen is for the Tea Party to split off and the implode under the weight of its own insanity, leading to a decade or so in which Democrats win all the big elections because the right is fractured, and then somehow at the end of all of that, the Republican party ends up lean and mean and sane.
I don’t think the Republicans would simply disappear without another party first forming and rising in popularity. That was the trajectory in the past when one of the major parties lost prominence and eventually faded away and became extinct. Basically it’s like market share…a competitive party would start stealing market share, perhaps taking members away from both Republicans and Democrats, but mainly Republicans (perhaps a centrist party made up of disaffected Republicans who don’t think the Democrats are worth a damn either) that eventually supplant the Republicans all together.
If enough Republicans become disaffected enough to really make a break from the party then yeah, it could happen. Everyone becomes Democrats? No chance of that, unless the Democratic party also fundamentally changes as there would be too great a distance between even centrist Republicans and their agenda and left wing Democrats to make for a working coalition or political party able to function. As it is the extremes put enough strain on the existing parties.
Frankly, if such a thing ever happened I would hope the Republican Party would clean house, get rid of the bugfuck crazies that now infest the place, and rebuild. I’d like to see a campaign that wasn’t a choice between Boring McCoastthru and Loon E. Tune.
Okay then, Governors Schwartzenegger, Deukmejian, and Wilson would like to have a word with you. Add in Reagan, and you have 7-1/2 Republican terms vs 4-1/2 Democrat since 1967.
California may go blue in national elections and the Bay Area, but it was red, red, red everywhere I lived and traveled. Vociferously so; 50% of cars had political stickers and 95% of them were of the Impeach Obama stripe. Good riddance.
Re the OP’s question, there will always be two (sometimes three) active parties. But the evidence is that the current Republican party has succeeded in disappearing up its own anus.
I would like to feel like I could ‘waste’ my vote on a really progressive candidate knowing that I’m not fundamentally opposed to the mainstream choices politics.
That’s part of the problem I see. Any third party arising on the right weakens the Republicans, and therefore weakens the success of both mainstream and third parties; same with anyone on the left. See hatred from Ralph Nader. So how is there room for three parties in a transition period? Or is it the other way round—Republicans take themselves out, allowing a new party to arise on the left and shifting Democrats back to the right of center?
I’d like to see a more moderate Republican party. One that helped counterbalance the more liberal parts of the Democratic party.
But, barring that, I’d rather just see Democratic control. I see more moderate spectrum in the Democratic party than in the GOP with its litmus tests and “RINO” appellations for anyone who dares buck the most extreme elements.
The modern Republican Party has proven that it can never again be trusted to run any branch of the federal government. If they can purge the Whack-a-tea-doodles from their midst and remain a viable opposition, fine.
If they die entirely, the Democratic coalition splits to fill the void. For a bit, there might be one-party rule. This is undesirable, but still better than having a party that has Joe McCarthy, I mean Ted Cruz, as their primary voice.
A one-party state would be preferable to the status quo wherein one party is responsible and willing to negotiate, and the other is a dysfunctional mass of petulant children more concerned about their own jobs than the good of the country and are willing to bring about global financial Armageddon in an attempt to ensure that a small portion of their income doesn’t go to providing health insurance for the poor.
A one party system is never preferable, nor is it realistic to even fantasize about such a thing happening in the US. As it is the two big tent parties are stretching to encompass the wide ranging and diverse political stances of the majority of our citizens, and it’s ridiculous to think that it could all fit under any party. You’d have to posit a party that could, somehow, meet the political needs of a citizenry ranging from the loony left to the crazy right, and everyone in-between, and frankly, the Democrats ain’t it. Neither are the Republicans or any other party.
I certainly don’t want a one-party country, but I want the big parties to be sane.
I see no reason why there couldn’t be a party that is both fiscally conservative and even socially conservative, but still understands the separation of church and state and realizes that both evolution and global warming have been proven.
I’ll still likely never vote for a socially conservative candidate from this hypothetical party, but at least I won;t be deeply ashamed of him or her.