(Not sure if this belongs in GQ or GD … but since there probably can’t be a hard answer and the parameters can be debated, I’ll drop it here.)
In the 1984 election, Ronald Reagan won 49 states, with Walter Mondale winning Minnesota and D.C. The following is from Wikipedia:
And then in 1988, George Bush went on to win California again, with current Democratic strongholds such as NY and MA reverting back to the Democrats.
OK, so on to the question/debate – In any potential future that we can now foresee, could any currently conceivable Republican presidential candidate win what in 2008 are rock-solid Democratic states, such as CA, MS, and NY?
I’m thinking in terms of looking on the horizon that we can more or less see now (if hazily) – IOW Republican politicians who are currently active, even if they are not necessarily tabbed right now as potential presidential material. This is to head off tangents such as “Sure … in a hundred years someone could come along.”
What got me thinking about this was kind of a look back at the facts of the 1984 election and wondering just how those Democratic states went Republican, knowing (?) that it could never happen today. The Wikipedia article gives a high-level reason, but not enough detail to help evaluate whether similar conditions could realistically re-occur in the nearish future (say, within a generation … looking out to the year 2040 or so).
I do realize that Reagan’s victories in those states was 24 years ago, and that a lot can change in a quarter-century. Still, it was well within living memory for many voters.
Thanks in advance for all input.