…has the Korean border moved since then? If it hasn’t, wouldn’t China be just as concerned about Americans on their border in 2006 as in 1950?
I really don’t think this is true.
In 1950 the United States was a cutting edge super power producing 50% of global industrial output.
China had some Soviet aid, but they were largely a preindustrial peasant society that had just emerged from decades of civil war and brutal Japanese occupation. They hadn’t undergone the (brutal and deadly) industrialization of the Map regime yet.
The technological and industrial gap between the United States and China was exponentially larger in 1950 than in 2006. It was larger in the 50s than it has ever been since.
No because no US attack on North Korean nuclear facilities (or leadership) would involve several US divisions crossing the Yalu river and looking for all the world like an invasion of China. Even the most paranoid Chinese general would not think the US were interested in invading China in 2006 (whereas in 1950 the US was absolutely interested in invading China, there was nothing paranoid about that).
If they decided to intervene (and get in a shooting war with the US) it would be purely to protect their ally, not to ensure their own territorial integrity. They might make that call in 2026 but no way in hell they are doing that in 2006.
The US would not be able to perform either of these operations in North Korea. Not without getting into live conflict with China.
How do you mean?
I mean that if the US started widespread airstrikes across North Korea to provide cover for a team of infiltrators going after Kim, the way the Venezuela mission went down, then they wouldn’t have free reign over the North Korean skies like they did in Venezuela, they’d be fighting off Chinese jets immediately. And there’d be Chinese missiles flying at the bases and carriers that launched the strikes.
But in terms of the military assets and technology they could field in Korea, in particular the sophistication of the air assets (which is what matter in this comparison) the gap was much smaller in in 1950. The US had a significant edge in the airwar but it was not completely one sided, the US took significant casualties in the air war losing 3000 aircraft.
OK, let’s set aside the fact that you seem overconfident that US special forces working with South Korean spies on a years-long mission couldn’t pull this off undetected, and address the hypothetical.
In 2026 there would be (if the Chinese decided to intervene which is not a given) in 2006 the gap between the USAF and Chinese air force was much bigger.
And again in 2006 China probably wouldn’t intervene. Why would they? They would likely come off worse, why would they lose a war for their crazy neighbors?
Again I’m sure the possibility of China getting involved was a factor. But so was the fact they had nukes. That’s a big factor against anyone attacking North Korea.
I am. If the US tried a stunt like Venezuela in North Korea, they’d immediately be drawn into a hot war with China. China wouldn’t wait for America to successfully pull it off, they’d be at war immediately.
In a hypothetical world where the US has space alien magic to shut off all of China’s radar so they can pull off the raid undetected, then yes, I think China would immediately retaliate.
Because an American friendly United Korea on their border is not acceptable to them.
Bonkers take, but OK.
…your take is that China would allow the US to do what they did in Venezuela - build up forces over weeks, strike targets across North Korea over a single night, and commando raid Kim’s palace to jab him?
You think the Chinese would see this buildup and shrug? They’d see American jets circling Pyongyang and ignore them?
I think that is clearly the bonkers take.
I think that if we turn on the news tomorrow and see a smoking crater where Kim Jong Un’s bunker used to be, and the US takes credit, China would release a sternly worded letter. No way they’re going to retaliate against the most powerful military in the world and the most dominate nuclear power over a dictatorship that’s of no real value to them.
But that’s not what happened with Maduro or with Iran, is it? The US built up their forces in the area, it used widespread strikes across the country to serve as a distraction, etc.
I don’t know about you, but I was watching live updates as first a few explosions were reported, then more, then helicopters circling were seen, etc.
There is no world in which China stands around with their thumb up their ass while that’s going down.
You’re fighting the hypothetical now.
Would China retaliate post-hoc?
Would NK consider nuking Seoul?
Yes, obviously they would. Not to do so would be geopolitical suicide for their ambition to unseat the United States as the sole global superpower.
Maybe, but they would probably nuke other targets like Japan and further cities and just level Seoul with conventional artillery as they have been fully capable of doing since the 80s. Assuming their delivery methods aren’t entirely bluster, which is not necessarily a safe assumption.
Bonkers take.
eta: If you haven’t noticed, China is winning. They’re already poised to unseat the US as the sole global superpower. All they have to do is do nothing, let NK burn, and they win.
In 2026 they might. In 2006 why would they? They would lose the war. The 2006 the US Air Force was way ahead of the Chinese (they are probably still quite a way ahead, though the gap is undoubtedly smaller). Yeah the chinese would not be too happy about it, and that’s one of the reason why it would have been a bad idea. But its absolutely not definitely the case that China would instantly start a war in defense of North Korea.
In fact of all the reason why trying a Venzuala style attack on North Korea would have been a really bad idea in the late 2000s, potential Chinese retaliation might not be in the top 5. Certainly it’s behind “NK have nukes and would definitely use them if attacked”
I suspect it’s China they would threaten to nuke, telling them to help fight the US or else.