Let me clarify. The divergence is on evolution. There’s flora and fauna, but it’s unclear how much they match up with Earth’s (former) species.
The biggest problem people used to have with survival in primitive conditions was other people.
I’m not saying it would be comfortable. But hunting with primitive tools isn’t hard, if there are millions of animals with no experience of human hunters. It’s a lot harder to survive as a hunter-gatherer on Earth in 2015 because all the good hunting spots are either cities or farms, and have been for hundreds, sometimes thousands of years. If you really want an easy place to hunt, send the colony to New Zealand. No land predators at all, the moas won’t even have the generic wariness that animals on the continents do.
Smelting iron is a lot harder than the other classical metals. But bronze age people just didn’t know how to do it, and they weren’t experimenting a lot trying to make iron because they had no reason to. On planet Earth plenty of hunter-gatherer societies used native gold and silver and copper. It’s not that they couldn’t have built a bloomery furnace, it’s just that there was absolutely no reason for them to try to build such a thing, even if they know what metals are. No hunter-gatherer is going to wish he had a more durable axe and then sit down and smelt iron from scratch, because the intermediate steps aren’t there. But if he already knew how, and if he realized the value of the end product then the actual steps to do it are not out of reach.
I’m not saying the colonists would have it easy compared to sitting on your ass in an air-conditioned office. But primitive survival is going to be a lot easier in a world that has never known humans than it would be for a bunch of people dropped into a wilderness on Earth today.
In that case these are dead naked humans. They evolved to survive conditions on Earth. They’re going to catch space germs or eat something that looks and smells like an apple but has a neurotoxin. Or the cute little kittens that spit poison darts will slaughter them. Considering that this is a one-way trip, the next batch of hapless victims will fare the same fate. Mankind is doomed in this scenario.
It’s difficult to plan around the vagaries of human psychology. There might be a civil war or a cult that rebels against the earth prime invaders. Modern ideals like egalitarianism and democracy might not survive in a world that needs physical labor and where women are encouraged to pop out 10 kids like in ye old days. What if they refuse?
What if people lose interest in racing to recreate the same systems that destroyed the Earth in the first place? What if they strike? Even if the originals are a bunch of true believers it’d be difficult to maintain the conviction over hundreds of years. Especially with the difficulty of maintaining records. People might not even understand what it’s talking about, if they can still read it due to language shift.
See what I mean?
OK. That’s 100% plausible. But I’m still wondering about what you’re not saying. Specifically …
Are you saying that in all geophysical respects all these other planets are exact copies of Earth with each rock & bend in each river at the very same place? And as of which year are they identical? And there are multiple such planets but one has been chosen?
ISTM it’s either that (magically identical Earth-clones) or else all we can say about these distant planets is that they’re broadly similar to Earth in diameter, gravity, insolation, atmosphere, etc. Intermediate cases mostly fail the laugh test.
Or are you positing some kind of magic sensors to go with the magic transporter so we can learn essentially as much about these planets by remote sensing as we now know about our Earth from our satellites? And what about the knowledge of Earth gained by our billions of ground parties? Even today, satellites can’t tell us where ore or oil is located. They give us some suggestions, but no better.
Put more operationally, will the colonists have detailed geophysical maps of the new planet when they arrive, or will their detailed geophysical knowledge be limited to whatever they can discover by wandering around?
If all we can tell about the planet is that it’s kind of like Earth and there are plants and animals there and the atmosphere seems breathable, then God knows what the odds of survival are. Because in that case everyone could be dissolved by space plankton in the first few hours. Or more realistically, breathe in some pollen or spores or touch an unfamiliar plant, and just die. God knows what kinds of fungus or bacteria exist on this planet that our immune systems are completely unprepared to handle, and you’re literally covered in mold within hours. Oh, don’t get me wrong, we’re probably toxic to most animals and plants on that planet too, and the gravesites of the colonists might be toxic waste dumps for the local ecology for generations. Tit for tat.
In the scenario that I had in mind, the major landmasses are roughly the same. No geophysical maps or knowledge going in, other than an educated guess based upon Earth’s physical properties.
Not sure which hypothetical you’re talking about here… who’s rebelling against who?
I think a lot of that depends on how much progress is made by the first generation, which presumably can be heavily screened and indoctrinated ahead of time for motivation, and which will presumably know what they’re struggling for in a way their descendants won’t.
If the first generation can get far enough along that they can really show people “hey, see this nice mortared house we’re sitting in and these crops that grow every year and these fairly nice clothes we have? that’s because of the Learning we have gotten”, as opposed to “yeah, I know that we are naked savages in a jungle, but if you preserve these holy writings and pass them down for countless generations to your children, then eventually they will make everyone’s lives better, although I can’t explain or demonstrate how. Trust me on this one!”
Because recreating some of those systems will get them nice and comfortable things? And because they are subjected to a cleverly designed educational/propaganda system/religion which encourages progress? We all know how effective religious indoctrination can be… now imagine that the Bible everyone is taught to revere from day 1 actually continually produces tangible benefits which make everyone’s lives better?
How quickly do you think a language shift happens? If the first generation is able to produce copious written records and plans, which are then used to educate further generations with a high percentage of literacy, the written records should alleviate the shifting quite a bit. I definitely think the key is what things look like when the first generation dies out. I wonder what a reasonable goal might be for that… are steam engines totally out of the question?
A primitive steam engine should be entirely attainable with bronze, but you’re going to need a population large enough to support specialisation.
I think that the development of any colony would depend greatly on the leadership. There are any number of scenarios that could play out, but it is likely that the sensible well planned growth will not be the one that survives. Even without disasters; famines, earthquakes, ferocious animals etc. it is quite likely that some guy, bigger and more cunning than the others, will make a takeover bid. He will want the best food and the best women for himself. His family will become a ruling class and quite soon the objectives will all be short term.
If the colony survives that, a sensible leader might emerge and improve things for everyone. This might well go in cycles for centuries.
It’s took near a century into the Industrial revolution before boiler explosions went from “common risk” to “somebody fucked up”. And it required incremental advances in the science of metallurgy.
Doubt bronze would be as good.
I did specify primitive.
Right, but there’s a case where knowledge (assuming it can be preserved) will be helpful. They’ll start out knowing exactly what to do and what not to do. One major advantage these people will have in all of their technological pursuits is jumping over all the trials and dead ends.
Again, that depends how you choose who you send. If it’s “hey, anyone with some survival skills, come here, we’ll send you all through this portal and cross our fingers”, sure. If it’s “we choose 1000 individuals who were screened and indoctrinated since birth, and who believe with a religious fervor that it is their duty to obey and propagate The Plan” it seems a lot less likely. Presumably you would need SOME leadership, but you’d want it redundant… a committee of 10 or something where one bad disease isn’t going to leave you headless.
Bronze is a low strength, low melting point metal with poor wear resistance and a tendency to fracture under cyclic loading. Bronze fittings are only usable for low pressure applications (typically rated for 125 psi) and at the size of a large pressure vessel could hold only a fraction of that, notwithstanding that it would make for a poor threaded fastener or other tensile spring joint material. The only structural applications bronze is in common use today are bearings, where the self-lubricating and low hardness properties are a benefit in protecting steel shafts.
There is a reason that it took until the development of high grade cast iron for steam engines to be used for any industrial application; because low grade cast iron and bronze were too prone to catastrophic failure and allowed operation only at such low temperatures and pressures that they weren’t efficient enough to be of any practical use.
Stranger
Sounds great. For the first generation.
The second and subsequent generation will be normal humans with the normal human distribution of greed vs. altruism, ambition vs. laziness, and vigor vs. sickliness.
That’s when the trouble starts.
Kinda sorta. The second generation will be normal humans raised and trained by an extremely dedicated group of parents, who they will then be able to work side by side with, watching as their holy mission actually bears fruit and yields tangible benefits for all of their lives. “Indoctrination” is usually a dirty word, for good reason, but these kids will be indoctrinated eight ways from Sunday.
I mean, pure dedication can’t last forever, but I don’t think they’d go in one generation from dedicated-fanatically-to-the-cause to meh-whatevs-let’s-have-a-revolution.
Count me as another who isn’t sure why humans would deal with early agricultural if they didn’t have to.
Modern agriculture depends on heavy machinery and chemicals manufactured by complex factories.
How could you avoid early agriculture if you didn’t have those things?
Newcomen’s engine wasn’t very high pressure - only 5 psi.
The answer’s already been given - remain Hunter-gatherers for as long as possible. Choose the right place and you can sustain largish settlements that way (e.g PNW native Americans) - or other specialized construction.