This is part of a general call for total isolationism from this thread. Will abandoning Israel, appeasement, and isolationism work?
Some of my opinions are on the linked thread, so I’ll leave this to you for now, Right Honorable Dopers.
I find it difficult to believe, especially when Osama’s stated motives primarily dealt with US presence on Saudi soil. His mention of Israel was seen as a chance to turn 9/11 from a Saudi fundamentalist action to a pan-Arab action.
America publicly turning their back on Israel will do nothing except provoke regional war. This will end in one of two possibilities – the destruction of Israel and the slaughter of at least hundreds of thousands of Jews with the possibility of ethnic cleansing and a huge refugee population. The second is a mass destruction of Arab force in a stunning Israeli victory. This could only weaken the secular regimes of the attacking countries and lead to the rise of fundamentalist regimes.
The secular pan-Arabists who came to power in the 1950s through 1970s are a dying breed. They are being replaced by the fundamentalist pan-Islamists. While IMHO it is only a matter of time before most of the countries in the region take the pan-Islamist role, abandoning Israel will only harken the process and make it less bearable.
Besides, IMHO, the utter hate of Israel is a temporary thing. I bet if you took that opinion poll before the last intifada began, there would have been much less ire directed towards Israel. What is needed is a comprehensive peace settlement, preferably involving the Arab League. We have come close to having that a few times – the Saudi peace plan was debated before the Arab League. Without active US intervention in pressuring some of these countries to accept it (Bush has had a hands-off approach to the process, which really isn’t working), we will never see peace.
What the US should do is pressure a legitimate peace plan, recognize an independent Palestine, enter some kind of mutual defense pact with Israel, and wait 10 years. I’m sure things will look much different at that point. Perhaps it will even stem the tide of the pan-Islamists who are out to destroy all that is not Islam.
Agreed.
Actually, I am really inclined to doubt it. There is no unanimity among the various local Arab powers - Egypt is a pseudo-U.S. client, Jordan not far from it, Lebanon is a shadow, and Syria can’t go it alone. In fact even if they were all on the same page, I don’t think any of them are up to risking war for any reason, short of defence.
But that doesn’t mean I think it would be a good idea for the U.S. to back out. To the contrary, it would probably ratchet up the internal violence and work against a peace.
Hmmm…An overly pessimistic view IMHO. Possible, but by no means a sure thing.
Poll data of the Palestinians at least, does seem to bear this out. The number opposed to any peace process and supporting suicide attacks sky-rocketed after the second intifida.
I generally agree with the rest of your post as well.
- Tamerlane
It seems to me that the strategy of suicide bombing is backfiring spectacularly on the Palestinians. Israel moves more toward Likkud - and probably justifiably.
I think the premise is stated too extremely. We cannot honorably “abandon” Israel at this juncture. But we can move to a more nuetral stance, and I believe we should. The real tragedy here is that, as Mr. Amos Oz points out, both of the antagonists are in the right, both have been unjustly maligned, both have worthy grievances.
But we have consistently favored Isreals side in all this. Regardless of the international repercussions, this is unjust. Despite our most strenuous objections, Israel continues it such programs as settlement, that cannot have any other effect but exacerbating the problem. They are so confident of our continued support, they regard it as a given, as thier due. They need to be disillussioned. For too often, alliance with Israel has been a one way street.
It is apparent to just about all concerned that the miserable and dangerous path of seperation into autonomous states is the only possible solution. The sooner we acknowledge this ugly fact, and the sooner we insist that Mr. Sharon make concrete steps to implement it, the sooner this ungodly albatross will fall from our neck. It can’t be soon enough, ten years ago would not have been soon enough.
I think we do have a neutral stance on Israel right now, international opinion be damned. I see us as exactly on the midpoint between Likud and Hamas (et al) at the moment, maintaining status quo until some kind of peace plan is in effect. Each of the current antagonists have gone beyond the grievance issues and into religious rights and decrees, so it’s impossible to please either. When the moderates are more in control on each side again that’ll be the time. In the meantime I don’t think we have to apologize for aid. Economic and military aid is given to the near Arab countries as well, another nod for neutrality.
So this is a “what if” America abandoned Israel?
My belief is that there would not, at this point in time, be any organized national or pan-regional military attack against Israel. Those in power in oppressive Arab regiemes need Israel as a force to blame and as a distraction. They do not want peace and they do not want Israel gone … they want the status quo. They need a whipping boy to distract the ire of the common people from their abuse by their own governments.
Those oppressive Arab governements would, however, be further destabilized by pressure for an attack by militant Islamists within their populations.
In this scenerio US interests are poorly served by the consequent instability, and the lack of the futhering of those secular values that Americans claim to hold dear. (Despite the fact that she continues to support Arab regiemes that reject those values of freedom of speech and equal rights for all, including women) And since I believe that it is the perception of American culture and influence dominating the world, at the expense of religious control, that provokes anti-Americanism much more than US support of Israel, little diminshment of terrorism against American interests would result.
What if an attack did occur? Then a more dire outcome for America would come about. Israel would do whatever it took to survive. Her use of such force would have devastating consequencces on regional stability, including unpredictable effects on what governments would be left in power after such tumult, and what those governments inclination to US interests would be.
All in all, better to hope for the Israelis to cease home destructions that fail to serve the cause of security, and for the Palestinians to realize that terror attacks worsen their plight. Better to hope for a secular Palestinian state with freedom of speech, and education for all, including women, and that such concepts spread like a computer virus through the Arab world, shutting down the oppressive regiemes that recieve American support, and that are the real root cause of terror against the US.
FWIW, I sometimes think that peace could be doable very easily, if the Saudis and other wealthy, powerful Arabs wanted it. If they ceased funding the terror groups and demanded that the PA actaully attempt to shut the terror groups down, while they and the US simultaneously demanded that Israel, in return for that act, halt all settlement expansion and withdraw from the most egregious settlements to at least near the Green Line, subject to final negotiations maturely focussed on things like sharing tax revenues, investment in school systems, jobs training, and nation-building rather than a few lousy sq km of desert land and arguing for that which they will never get, etc … then peace would be around the corner. But it isn’t in the powers self-interest to make that happen.
Israel is our ally, and the only democracy in that region. It is a fundamentally good country, with the same values we have. It has been under near constant attack since its inception.
Abandoning Israel would be wrong.
It would also be counter-productive? You think that people who use violence to achieve their ends will be mollified when their violence actually works? Dropping support for Israel would be seen as a great victory by groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and the Palestinian Authority. This would embolden them and make the violence worse.
That shouldn’t have been a question mark. Abandoning Israel WOULD be counter-productive.
Maybe we should threaten to make war with Israel? Much like Iraq they have refused to obey international law and the UN by continuing to build civilian settlements in occupied territories. They consistantly kill civilians in the Palistinian areas and they thumb thier collective noses at the international community when pressured to stop these activities. We use a plan similar to the one for Iraq where the present leadership is overthrown and a more plyable goverment is installed. We then have more respect from the Arab nations, a free Palestine and control of the dangerous Israeli military arsenal that very well may include WMDs.
Just an idea.
Israel is not the only democracy in the middle east and is a psuedo democracy at best.
A “free Palestine” to some people means no Israel at all. Is it that hard to see why most of us aren’t lining up to support that? Not a side-by-side Palestine and Israel, they want One Free Palestine. Proponents of that particular solution are doing their own part to ignore the UN, and evidence points to them not respecting the US no matter what, so…why bother.
Well I am not considering what “they” want. They would get what they get and that would be that. The borders go back to '47 and evryone can like it or lump it. It is high time this was settled. Give both sides a deadline and if you don’t work it out we invade and settle it as we see most beneficial to the rest of the world that is sick of the crap. Hey if we dismantle the Israeli military that black flags the arms race in the region. I know this would never happen but hey, I can dream.
They’d kick our ass. We’d have to nuke them. Then they’d nuke us. [sub]Ariel, Hank is in Frankfurt Indiana![/sub]
Should we threaten to reduce the billions in miliary and other aid we send them before or after we threaten to make war with them? There are half measures between immense support and threatening overtures.
We went from support and weapons to war with Iraq with amazing speed. Why not do it again with another nation?
And that is FrankfOrt Indiana. Home of the Frankfort High Hot Dogs !
really? What do the t-shirts look like???
Fearsome and ferocious little wiener dogs of course.
I’m half-afraid to ask this, Hank; however, what the hey, might as well: What’re the other democracies in the Middle East? Oh, and prove that Israel is “a pseudo democracy” whilst you’re at it.
Turkey is a democracy and is in the middle east region. I am sure you consider it a part of Europe or you wouldn’t ask.
I wouldn’t even begin to try and prove that Israel is a pseudo democracy as that is an opinion based on the voter requirements used by Israel to contro who votes. In some folks mind that may be perfectly democratic. Even Saddam lets his people vote. Does that qualify?