Unless the RNC leadership want to completely splinter the party, Trump will be the nominee. But the same rules about pledged candidates does not apply to the VP candidate. What are the chances the Republican leadership will force the issue and try to get the convention to accept their choice for VP and not Trump’s?
There is a 100% chance that the Republican leadership will attempt to approve Trump’s VP choice, if they fail in their attempt to nominate someone else. Their chance of success is very low unless they cut a deal behind closed doors and Trump can plausibly claim he made the choice himself. Not really that hard to do with the low standard of plausibility Trump voters have for him.
If Trump chooses anyone remotely plausible then that choice will be approved. If Trump chooses Joe the Plumber or something, yeah, the RNC will have an issue.
This was actually a problem for McCain in 2008. He wanted Lieberman, but his advisors warned him that it would be quite a haul getting Lieberman the floor votes. McCain would probably win that battle but it would suck a lot of political capital out of the campaign to do it.
How?
Seriously, how would the establishment do this? (Leaving aside the fact that the establishment has so far been completely ineffective against him.) How does the establishment prevent Trump’s majority of delegates from voting in support of Trump? The convention is going to be a coronation and an infomercial. The entire party will be desperate to present a unified face to the American public. Trump will probably have all the delegates except those from any state that won’t let a defeated candidate release them. What possible leverage will the establishment have?
Naked dancing Miss Universe reject girls! I am SO THERE.
I don’t think Trump really give a rat’s ass who the VP is, as long as the candidate hasn’t opposed him too vocally. Expect to see someone utterly mainstream.
From among the YUGE field of mainstream Pubs who will touch him with a ten-foot pole.
How, exactly, would they do this? I’m going to say 0% chance, since I can’t see how they could.
Doesn’t the VP nominee have to be approved by the Convention? The delegates are not bound in any way on the VP choice, are they?
Well, technically, the convention rules can change at any time; even during the convention itself. If they wanted to, they could do it. It might lead to mutiny, but they could do it.
Yes. No.
In recent years, conventions have always deferred to the choice of the candidate for President, suspending the rules and nominating that person by acclamation. They certainly could do things differently if they chose to.
Someone will try. Trump’s popularity at grass roots threatens the party leadership though, so they’ll be walking on eggshells and delegates who are closer to the local politics don’t want to be associated with a failed coup either. Trump has the upper hand here, the very most the disgruntled GOP establishment can hope for is to push Trump towards the most acceptable among his own choices.
The Democratic side of this game has become quite dull but Trump keeps on entertaining us. I can’t wait to see the Republican convention.
Who is this “establishment” that is going to try, and what specific tactics do they have at their disposal?
They are the no-Trumpers, Romney, Bush, the Conservative crowd, and they’ll whisper among themselves looking for a loophole and trying to gather support, and they’ll get none. If the rules allow delegate approval of the VP they’ll try everything they can to sway delegates to make it an issue, but there are plenty of delegates and leaders in the party who want the party to do what it does every four years and appear united in support of their candidate. Just because there’s no chance of success won’t stop some of them from trying. The leverage they have now is the campaign funding, big donors have been hesitating and Trump making some kind of deal on the VP can open up the money for him.
Yeah, why should he bother with details like vetting VP candidates? That’s why he has people…
Trump is Godzilla and the Republican Establishment is the Japanese military of 1953. They will be equally as effective at stopping him from doing anything or going anywhere he wants to.
Is Ross Perot still alive? Maybe he can put on a Mothra suit.
The ears aren’t enough?
And they’re the best people, believe me, just tremendous, yuuugely talented …
Trump is going to have trouble finding anyone willing to run with him, but he does already have a couple of options that The Establishment has already approved. “Little Marco” Rubio is being coy about changing his mind about running for re-election to the Senate, knowing he doesn’t have to file until after the convention. Chris Christie is so willing to debase himself to The Godfather that he’s now picking up Trump’s McDonalds’ orders for him.
Spot on, but it will be great schadenfreude to see the establishment (many of them will stay away) to witness in horror how the nice uplifting infomercial they used to make will go from a George Foreman Grill infomercial type to one where they will pretend to appear mildly enthusiastic about the Potty Putter.